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Business and Economics > Budgeting

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Fourth Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Modifications of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper discusses Ukraine’s Fourth Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Request for Modification of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review. Ukraine’s performance remains strong under the EFF despite challenging conditions. All quantitative performance criteria for end-March were met, and all structural benchmarks through end-June were implemented on time or with a short delay. The Ukrainian economy continues to be resilient although the outlook remains subject to exceptionally high uncertainty. Sustained reform momentum and timely disbursement of external support are necessary to safeguard macroeconomic stability, restore fiscal and debt sustainability, and enhance institutional reforms to lay the path to European Union accession. Timely and predictable external disbursements together with strong domestic resource mobilization and careful liquidity management are necessary for Ukraine to meet its financing needs. Fiscal policies for the remainder of 2024, together with preparation for the 2025 budget, should be underpinned by steadfast revenue mobilization efforts aligned with the National Revenue Strategy.
Keywords:
ESBU head; ESBU law; staff appraisal; ESBU's role; investigative power; Budget planning and preparation; Financial sector stability; International reserves; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Federated States of Micronesia: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Federated States of Micronesia
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The COVID-19 pandemic and related containment measures have put severe strains on the economy. The economic policy response has been strong and generally appropriate, helping counter the negative effects of the pandemic. Nevertheless, as the international borders remain shut, the economic contraction is likely to deepen in FY2021. A slow recovery is expected for FY2022 driven by a gradual border reopening. The FSM is facing significant medium-term uncertainty, owing to the possible expiration of grants and other assistance provided under the Compact Agreement with the United States. The FSM is also highly vulnerable to climate change-induced natural disasters.
Keywords:
FSM authority; FSM authorities; policy support; FSM economy; island state; FSM remain; COVID-19; Pacific Islands; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Maldives: Technical Assistance Report-Fiscal Transparency Evaluation
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Reflecting an ongoing commitment to enhancing fiscal transparency, Maldives is the first small island state, and the second country in Asia, to have undertaken a Fiscal Transparency Evaluation (FTE). The Government of the Maldives (GoM) recognizes the importance of transparency in fiscal management and in delivering on its ambitious policy agenda, while responding to current challenges within a tight fiscal environment. This report assesses fiscal transparency practices in Maldives against the first three pillars of the IMF’s Fiscal Transparency Code (FTC).
Keywords:
IMF team; FAD expert; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; Maldives pension administration office; housing development finance corporation; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal risks; Financial statements; Global; South Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Austerity and Elections
Mr. Alberto Alesina
,
Gabriele Ciminelli
,
Davide Furceri
, and
Giorgio Saponaro
Conventional wisdom holds that voters punish governments that implement fiscal austerity. Yet, most empirical studies, which rely on ex-post yearly austerity measures, do not find supportive evidence. This paper revisits the issue using action-based, real-time, ex-ante measures of fiscal austerity as well as a new database of changes in vote shares of incumbent parties. The analysis emphasizes the importance of the ‘how’—whether austerity is done via tax hikes or expenditure cuts—and the ‘who’—whether it is carried out by left- vs. right-leaning governments. Our main finding is that tax-based austerity carries large electoral costs, while the effect of expenditure-based consolidations depends on the political-leaning of the government. An austerity package worth 1% of GDP, carried out mostly through tax hikes, reduces the vote share of the leader’s party by about 7%. In contrast, expenditure-based austerity is detrimental for left- but beneficial for right-leaning governments. We also find that the electoral cost of austerity—especially tax hikes—can be contained if it is implemented during good economic times.
Keywords:
austerity package; expenditure cut; yearly austerity; construction of Austerity variable; economy to Austerity; Tax expenditures; Government debt management
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Niger: Sixth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility and Request for Waiver for Nonobservance of Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Niger
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
With one of the world’s lowest levels of human development, Niger has enormous needs but only limited own resources to meet them. Insecurity in the Sahel, climate change, and low prices for its uranium exports are further challenges. Niger’s economy performed reasonably well before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. GDP growth exceeded 6 percent and large foreign projects were attracted, notably a pipeline for the export of crude oil. A new government will take office in April 2021.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; authority; spending quality; ECF arrangement; disbursement of SDR; SDR
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Niger: Sixth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility and Request for Waiver for Nonobservance of Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Niger
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
With one of the world’s lowest levels of human development, Niger has enormous needs but only limited own resources to meet them. Insecurity in the Sahel, climate change, and low prices for its uranium exports are further challenges. Niger’s economy performed reasonably well before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. GDP growth exceeded 6 percent and large foreign projects were attracted, notably a pipeline for the export of crude oil. A new government will take office in April 2021.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; authority; spending quality; ECF arrangement; disbursement of SDR; SDR; Nigerien authorities; program implementation; asset declaration; revenue collection; Budget planning and preparation; Debt sustainability analysis; Global; West Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Madagascar: Request for Disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Madagascar
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
A further deterioration of the global environment and a deepening of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic have worsened the macroeconomic outlook significantly, with growth now projected to be negative in 2020. As a result, urgent balance of payments needs arising from the pandemic are now estimated at 4.2 percent of GDP (compared to 1.8 percent), and the authorities have requested an additional disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) of 50 percent of quota (SDR 122.2 million) under the “exogenous shock” window of the RCF. This follows Board approval on April 3, 2020 of the authorities’ request for 50 percent of quota, which took place before the annual access of the RCF was doubled to 100 percent of quota on April 6, 2020. This additional request, if approved, will bring total disbursements under the RCF to 100 percent of quota in 2020. The authorities have also requested temporary debt servicing relief under the G-20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative, supported by the G-20 and Paris Club.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; financing; RCF resource; fund support; financing needs; financing gap; RCF request; IMF Policy paper No. 20/018; Credit; Budget planning and preparation; Global; Africa; COVID-19
Cover Policy Papers
Review Of The Fund’s Income Position For FY 2020 And FY 2021-2022
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews the Fund’s income position for FY 2020 and FY 2021–22. It updates the April 2019 projections and proposes decisions for the current year. The paper also includes a proposed decision to set the margin for the rate of charge for financial years 2021 and 2022. Projections of the Fund’s income are subject to larger than normal uncertainties related to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on key assumptions. For FY 2020, these uncertainties relate mainly to the discount rate used to measure the Fund’s retirement plan obligations at April 30, 2020 and to the full year asset returns on the retirement plan and the Endowment Subaccount (EA), given the recent volatility in financial markets. For FY 2021–22, a key additional uncertainty is the scale of new lending associated with the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Keywords:
PP; income; lending; SDR billion; outlook factor; SDR Department
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Tonga: Technical Assistance Report-Climate Change Policy Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Tonga is one of the world’s most exposed countries to climate change and natural disasters. It suffered the highest loss from natural disasters in the world (as a ratio to GDP) in 2018 and is among the top five over the last decade (Table 1). Climate change will make this worse. Cyclones will become more intense, with more damage from wind and sea surges. Rising sea levels will cause more flooding, coastal erosion and contaminate fresh water. Daily high temperatures will become more extreme, with more severe floods and drought.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; short term; excise tax; emergency fund; international community; cross-government Emergency Management Committee; private sector; annual budget; investment project; Climate change; Natural disasters; Renewable energy; Budget planning and preparation; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Sierra Leone: Request for Disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sierra Leone
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Sierra Leone’s Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF). The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic puts Sierra Leone’s population at risk and is a serious blow to the economy, which has just started to recover. The number of COVID-19 cases is increasing rapidly, threatening the fragile health system. The drop in external demand and essential measures to contain the spread of the virus are sharply curtailing economic activity. The authorities are taking decisive actions to mitigate the health and socio-economic impact of the pandemic. In collaboration with development partners, they are scaling up urgent health spending and introducing measures, including boosting social safety nets and ensuring access to credit for affected businesses. The shock has generated a large balance of payments need. Emergency financing under the RCF will help meet this financing gap and create room for pandemic-related spending. With significant downside risks and a tight financing situation threatening to reverse Sierra Leone’s progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals, additional grant support from the international community is urgently needed.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; financing; pandemic; emergency financing request; IMF lending tracker; financing situation; financing gap; monetary policy implementation; Budget planning and preparation; Credit; COVID-19; Global