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Business and Economics > Budgeting

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Moldova: Fifth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility Arrangements, First Review Under the Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, and Request for Modification of a Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Moldova
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper highlights Republic of Moldova’s Fifth Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility Arrangements, First Review under the Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, and Request for Modification of a Performance Criterion. The recovery of the economy from the multiple shocks has been slower than anticipated, with growth lower than expected in 2023 and more subdued in 2024. Inflation has remained within the National Bank of Moldova’s target band since last October. The authorities’ continued focus on contingency planning, while maintaining agile policies, has helped contain the impact of recent shocks. Going forward, ongoing efforts to undertake growth-friendly reforms, strengthen energy security, and promote climate resilient investments, while pursuing the path toward EU accession, will support Moldova’s development objectives. Continued progress on anti-corruption reforms is needed to further increase trust in Moldova’s institutions and foster socio-economic development. Adoption of the law establishing a new Anti-Corruption Court, expected this summer, would be a key welcomed development, and the authorities should operationalize the Court quickly and effectively.
Keywords:
EU agenda; Policy commitment; EU integration; weather events risk; EU integration agenda; Climate change; Climate finance; Climate policy; Credit; Natural disasters; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Moldova: First Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility, and Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria and Inflation Consultation Clause-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Moldova
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Moldova’s economy is projected to stagnate in 2022 amid spillovers from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The war in Ukraine continues to weigh heavily on Moldova, although some initial pressures have subsided. Bank deposit net withdrawals came to an end and are now steadily being replenished. The leu depreciated by about 8 percent so far while pressures on foreign reserves have eased. About 550,000 refugees fleeing the war (representing more than 20 percent of the Moldovan population) have transited through Moldova, with about a fifth remaining in the country. Driven by rising food and energy prices, inflation accelerated further above the target band.
Keywords:
General government budget; Policy discussion; program implementation; policy effectiveness; inflation consultation clause; governance reform; Inflation; Energy prices; Budget planning and preparation; Import prices; Credit; Global; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Technical Assistance Report-Self-Funding of the National Securities and Stock Market Commission
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper discusses the self-funding model of the National Securities and Stock Market Commission (NSSMC) in Ukraine. There are a number of challenges with NSSMC’s funding and the constraints placed on it through the Ukrainian government budget process. The analysis conducted by the NSSMC and reviewed by the mission confirms the general benefits of moving to a self-funding model for the NSSMC. The legislative measures should be complemented by improvements in the NSSMC systems and processes. Self-funding of securities and other financial services regulators is increasingly becoming the international norm. The trend to self-funding is even more pronounced within Europe.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; fee revenue; supervision fee; market participant; fee payer; fee regime; NSSMC estimate; Budget planning and preparation; Securities markets; Securities; Personal income; Minimum wages; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Romania: Fiscal Transparency Evaluation
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
The paper discusses recommendations made in a fiscal transparency evaluation report for Romania. Seven recommendations are made to improve the level of information available to decision makers and the public. The report recommends reducing fragmentation of existing fiscal reporting and expanding the institutional coverage to include the wider public sector. It also recommends improving the timeliness, quality, and integrity of fiscal reports and financial statements through publishing reconciliations between cash and accrual based reports and enforcing strict timelines for publication of financial statements.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; execution report; accounts payable; local government; budget submission; finance statistics; government assets; government ordinance; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal risks; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Fiscal reporting; Europe; Africa; Global; IMF resident representative; summary evaluation; FAD staff; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; mission from the Fiscal Affairs Department; Government finance statistics manual
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Romania: First and Second Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Requests for Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion, Modification of Program conditionality, and Rephasing of the Availability Dates of Purchases
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This first and second reviews under the Stand-By-Arrangement analyzes Ex Post Evaluation of exceptional access for Romania. Efforts are needed to strengthen monetary policy transmission. The banking system remains well capitalized, but the authorities need to accelerate the resolution of nonperforming loans and closely monitor risks from parent bank deleveraging. The Romanian authorities continue their efforts to reach the goals of a broad structural agenda, with a focus on structural reforms in the energy, transport and healthcare sectors, and continue the reform of the state-owned enterprises.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; SOE arrears; arrears reduction; deficit; program objective; arrears report; insolvency code; inflation development; Executive Board's discussion; Arrears; Budget planning and preparation; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Bulgaria’s EU Funds Absorption: Maximizing the Potential!
Iana Paliova
and
Mr. Tonny Lybek
This paper focuses on EU structural and cohesion funds assistance to Bulgaria during the 2007–13 program period. Initial weaknesses resulted in a low absorption rate, which was mitigated by increasing advance payments; applying electronic application and reporting procedures; simplifying and unifying tender processes; and strengthening the role of international financial institutions and banks in project preparation, evaluation and monitoring. The possible impact on growth and potential output is briefly discussed, while the risks of improper absorption are acknowledged. Valuable lessons have been learned, but it is recommended that additional steps be taken for the next program period 2014–20.
Keywords:
WP; EU funds; managing authorities; EU budget; EU institution; EU member states; Bulgaria; EU structural and cohesion funds; potential growth; accession funds; OP EU; EU financing; Auditing; Budget planning and preparation; Infrastructure; Potential output; Global; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: Staff Report for the 2011 Article IV Consultation.
International Monetary Fund
This 2011 Article IV Consultation highlights that Macedonia is poised to achieve low but positive growth under the baseline scenario of a shallow recession in the euro area. Under a downside scenario, growth would be weaker, and external financing pressures could arise. In the near term, the government would need to reduce expenditure growth to meet the 2012 deficit target. A key longer-term challenge would be to reconcile the competing objectives of higher public investment and increases in pensions and public wages while preserving low public debt and low taxes.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; NBRM authority; authority; government; FYR Macedonia; deficit target; headline inflation; FDI inflow; nominal exchange rate; EU integration process of the Republic of Macedonia; Macedonian banking system; Government debt management; Budget planning and preparation; Current account deficits; Global; Europe; Eastern Europe; Western Europe; Southern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fiscal Consolidation in Southeastern European Countries: The Role of Budget Institutions
Mr. Brian Olden
,
Mr. Duncan P Last
,
Mr. Sami Yläoutinen
, and
Ms. Carla Sateriale
This paper assesses the relative strengths and weaknesses of fiscal institutions in ten Southeastern European countries, using recent benchmarking methodologies developed by FAD. The assessment evaluates each country’s understanding of the scale of the fiscal adjustment challenge, its ability to develop a credible consolidation strategy, and its capacity to implement the strategy. Key institutional arrangements, are generally in place, including top-down budgeting and medium-term budget frameworks. Other institutional arrangements require further attention, including macro-fiscal forecasting, fiscal risk analysis, setting fiscal objectives, presence and role of independent fiscal agencies, and top-down parliamentary approval.
Keywords:
WP; European country; budget institution; annual budget; consolidation strategy; orientation debate; Southeastern Europe; Fiscal Consolidation; Budget Institutions; consolidation program; nonfinancial enterprise; policy action; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal risks; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Budget execution and treasury management; Eastern Europe; Europe
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
A Fiscal Indicator for Assessing First and Second Pillar Pension Reforms
Mauricio Soto
,
Frank Eich
, and
Mr. Benedict J. Clements
Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.
Keywords:
SDN; budget balance; Fiscal policy; explicit and implicit government debt; pension obligations and reforms; population aging; pension balance; group liability; pension-adjusted balance; current-period balance; Pension spending; Budget planning and preparation; Pension reform; Fiscal stance; Fiscal sustainability; Central and Eastern Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
A New Index of Currency Mismatch and Systemic Risk
Mr. Romain Ranciere
,
Aaron Tornell
, and
Mr. Athanasios Vamvakidis
This paper constructs a new measure of currency mismatch in the banking sector that controls for bank lending to unhedged borrowers. This measure explicitly takes into account the indirect exchange rate risk that banks undertake when they lend to borrowers that will not be able to repay in the event of a sharp depreciation. Such systemic risk taking is not captured by indicators that are based only on banks’ balance sheet data. The new measure is constructed for 10 emerging European economies and for a broader sample that includes 19 additional emerging economies, for the period 1998 - 2008. Comparisons with previous currency mismatch measures that do not adjust for unhedged foreign currency borrowing illustrate the advantages of the new approach. In particular, the new measure flagged the indirect currency mismatch vulnerabilities that were building up in a number of emerging economies before the recent global crisis. Measuring currency mismatch more accurately can help country authorities in their efforts to address vulnerabilities at the right time, avoiding hurting growth prospects.
Keywords:
WP; currency; currency mismatch; foreign currency; bank; loan