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Business and Economics > Budgeting

You are looking at 1 - 9 of 9 items for :

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Qatar
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Growth normalization after the 2022 FIFA World Cup continued with signs of activities strengthening more recently. Fiscal and external surpluses softened mainly due to lower hydrocarbon prices. Banks are healthy but pockets of vulnerabilities remain. Reform momentum has strengthened, guided by the Third National Development Strategy (NDS3).
Keywords:
Qatar national; holdings of SDR; Qatari economy well; headline inflation; hydrocarbon price; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Public sector; Capital spending; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Reinforcement Learning from Experience Feedback: Application to Economic Policy
Tohid Atashbar
Learning from the past is critical for shaping the future, especially when it comes to economic policymaking. Building upon the current methods in the application of Reinforcement Learning (RL) to the large language models (LLMs), this paper introduces Reinforcement Learning from Experience Feedback (RLXF), a procedure that tunes LLMs based on lessons from past experiences. RLXF integrates historical experiences into LLM training in two key ways - by training reward models on historical data, and by using that knowledge to fine-tune the LLMs. As a case study, we applied RLXF to tune an LLM using the IMF's MONA database to generate historically-grounded policy suggestions. The results demonstrate RLXF's potential to equip generative AI with a nuanced perspective informed by previous experiences. Overall, it seems RLXF could enable more informed applications of LLMs for economic policy, but this approach is not without the potential risks and limitations of relying heavily on historical data, as it may perpetuate biases and outdated assumptions.
Keywords:
LLMs; GAI; RLHF; RLAIF; RLXF; experience feedback; RL model; applying RLXF; Reinforcement Learning from AI feedback; Reinforcement Learning method; Artificial intelligence; Economic classification
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on policies to drive diversification for Qatar. Diversification is important for a large commodity exporter like Qatar: it helps manage temporary shocks and prepare for sweeping changes to the economic setting. Qatar’s large financial holdings can help diversify revenues. Both structural reforms to improve the business environment and sector-specific policies can support diversification of activity and exports. Sector-specific policies should build on existing economic strengths in areas with room for exports and innovation. Emphasis should be placed on developing expertise in specific clusters. Export markets and competition provide crucial mechanisms to ensure discipline. Further diversification is important to help Qatar manage temporary shocks and prepare for far-reaching shifts to the economic context. Well-targeted, structured, and sequenced policies to encourage specific sectors can also play a role in diversifying Qatar’s economy. Export markets and competition should be deliberately used to hold recipients of support accountable. Policies to encourage specific sectors have resulted in little more than inefficient import substitution in many countries. Avoiding this outcome requires discipline: support should be withdrawn in the absence of progress.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Qatar; price; government spending; IMF export diversification; hydrocarbon reserve; Qatar's Second National Development Strategy; exposure to oil; expenditures decision; hydrocarbon price; medium-expenditure framework; Qatar's economy; Exports; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal rules; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United Arab Emirates: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses measures to strengthen fiscal policy and budget frameworks in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). It provides an overview of government’s revenue and expenditure developments, and presents fiscal sustainability analysis that is most relevant to countries with large hydrocarbon wealth such as the UAE. The paper discusses measures to contain expenditure growth—controlling the public wage bill, reducing subsidies and transfers, and stabilizing other expense in real terms. It also proposes options to increase nonhydrocarbon revenue such as broadening corporate income tax with lower rates, introducing a low rate-broad based value added tax, and levying an excise tax on automobiles.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; small and medium enterprise; bank; funding; revenue; country authorities; guarantee scheme; portfolio consist; SME access; government expense; rating agency; Small and medium enterprises; Budget planning and preparation; Credit; Energy subsidies; Loans; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses strengthening of fiscal policy and fiscal frameworks in Qatar. It proposes ways to ensure that sustainable fiscal policy is maintained in the medium to long term in Qatar. Fiscal policy remains sustainable, but given the large drop in oil prices, revenue-raising and expenditure-containing measures need to be considered to ensure intergenerational equity. Measures aimed at containing current spending, prioritizing capital expenditure, and raising nonhydrocarbon revenues would help bring fiscal policy back to consistency with intergenerational equity. Strengthening fiscal frameworks would help achieve the desirable fiscal policies.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Qatar; productivity; revenue; labor productivity; country inflation variable; inflation acceleration; double digit inflation; migration rate; price inflation; government expenditure; lower-than-average productivity; world inflation; growth performance; credit growth; money growth trigger inflation; expenditure-containing measure; Inflation; Total factor productivity; Budget planning and preparation; Labor productivity; Human capital; Global; North Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: 2014 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for Qatar
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
KEY ISSUES Context. As the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), Qatar has turned into an important global financial investor, donor, and labor importer. Growth averaged 14 percent over the past decade and GDP per capita has reached $100,000, the highest in the world. Qatar remains insulated from sluggish global growth thanks to high hydrocarbon prices and a large public investment program to support economic diversification and prepare for the FIFA 2022 Championship. Outlook and risks. Macroeconomic performance is expected to remain strong, driven by the non-hydrocarbon sector which accounts for almost one-half of the economy. Potential challenges include the risk of over-heating in the near term and over-capacity in the medium term as a result of the large public investment program. The possibility of a sharp decline in oil and gas prices remains the main medium-term risk; however, the authorities have ample fiscal and external buffers to deal with contingencies. Risks from public investments. Policymakers need to remain vigilant about overheating risks. Capital spending should be smoothed if signs of overheating emerge, and liquidity withdrawal operations and further macroprudential measures deployed in case of excessive credit growth or risk-taking. A comprehensive public investment management framework would increase the efficiency of public spending and reduce the risk of overinvestment. Fiscal reforms. The authorities have appropriately been saving the large fiscal surpluses, and have started introducing a medium-term focus into the budget process by implementing a three-year budget framework and establishing performance measures. The framework should be accompanied by realistic hydrocarbon price assumptions and a more detailed multi-year expenditure plan. Financial sector. The authorities are implementing an ambitious financial regulatory agenda, including establishing an umbrella advisory committee and issuing a final Basel III circular. Banks remain well capitalized and liquid, but the authorities should continue carefully monitoring vulnerabilities through an enhanced early warning system. Diversification. The authorities are also supporting economic diversification through measures to further financial deepening and private sector development.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; budget blueprint; staff appraisal; surplus; Qatar
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Qatar’s macroeconomic performance has remained strong. GDP growth slowed from 13 percent in 2011 to 6.2 percent in 2012, mostly owing to the self-imposed moratorium on additional hydrocarbon production from the North Field. Growth was 6.5 percent in 2013, driven by strong expansion in the nonhydrocarbon sector. The negative spillovers from sluggish global growth and financial market volatility have been limited. The baseline macroeconomic outlook is positive. GDP growth could stay at about 6 percent in 2014, with public investments keeping growth at about 6–7 percent over the medium term.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; budget blueprint; staff appraisal; surplus; Qatar; barrel oil price; finance management information system; management framework; price pressure; Public investment spending; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Credit; Global; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Qatar has recently taken steps toward introducing a medium-term budget framework (MTBF) to enhance the predictability of spending decisions in the country. However, implementing medium-term fiscal planning requires formal procedural fiscal rules and parallel efforts to enhance the credibility of the annual budget. Given Qatar’s significant exposure to hydrocarbon price movements and its long-lasting hydrocarbon reserves, such fiscal rules would need a certain degree of flexibility and, at the same time, should be set to maintain consistency with long-term fiscal sustainability.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; budget; Qatar; bond market; central bank; liquidity surplus; QCB liquidity forecasting model; liquidity management framework; market infrastructure; T-bill auction; fixed income; Government securities; Budget planning and preparation; Liquidity; Securities markets; Global; Liquidity management
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper focuses on fiscal policy and financial linkages across banks in Qatar. The paper presents main stylized facts on the evolution of revenues and expenditures and the relationship with oil prices. It analyzes the evolution of the fiscal policy stance in the run-up to and after the global financial crisis. The paper also assesses the current fiscal stance in the context of the authorities’ own objective of fully financing the budget from 2020 onward from its nonhydrocarbon revenues.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; revenue; hydrocarbon revenue; Qatari bank; bank j; country authorities; Qatar banks stability index; IMF staff estimate; Commercial banks; Fiscal stance; Total expenditures; Personal income; Global