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Business and Economics > Budgeting

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Arab Republic of Egypt: First and Second Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Monetary Policy Consultation, and Requests for Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion, and Augmentation and Rephasing of Access-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper presents Arab Republic of Egypt’s First and Second Reviews under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Monetary Policy Consultation, and Requests for Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion, and Augmentation and Rephasing of Access. A strong economic stabilization plan is being implemented to correct policy slippages. The plan is centered on a liberalized foreign exchange system in the context of a flexible exchange rate regime, a significant tightening of the policy mix, reducing public investment, and leveling the playing field to allow the private sector to become the engine of growth. While the recent sizable investment deal in Ras El-Hekma alleviates the near-term financing pressures, implementation of the economic policies under the program remains critical to address Egypt’s macroeconomic challenges. Robust delivery on structural reforms will be critical to lock in the benefits of the improved financing environment. IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for the completion of the first and second reviews under the EFF Arrangement.
Keywords:
interbank FX turnover; liberalized foreign exchange system; system functioning; fuel price subsidy; policy slippage; Fuel prices; Budget planning and preparation
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Haiti: Staff-Monitored Program-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Haiti’s Staff-Monitored Program (SMP). Building on progress achieved under the previous SMP, which was satisfactorily concluded in May 2023, the new 9-month SMP should contribute to macroeconomic stability by helping Haiti sustain recent policy reforms designed to enhance economic resilience and governance. Haiti faces a challenging macroeconomic outlook amid a dire humanitarian crisis. The country has been hit hard by economic spillovers from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including food price inflation that has triggered a hunger crisis. This global shock has been compounded by a highly volatile security situation in Haiti, which has heightened the economy’s fragility. The authorities have also recently made a formal request for an IMF Governance Diagnostic, which is a very welcome development and will help Haiti solidify the early improvements achieved during the recently concluded SMP. The diagnostics are designed to help inform governance and anti-corruption strategies, including sequencing of reforms.
Keywords:
SMP staff report; IMF governance Diagnostic; SMP policy; management of the International Monetary Fund; transparency policy; food price inflation; Budget planning and preparation; Energy subsidies; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Haiti: Second Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Haiti’s Second Review under the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP). The SMP has helped the government restore macroeconomic stability and strengthen governance and fiscal transparency. The SMP has played an important role in advancing decisive governance reforms to enhance accountability through stronger public finance management, revenue administration, data provision, and anti-corruption measures. The program has been designed to take into account Haiti’s fragility and capacity constraints and has helped the authorities build a record of accomplishment of policy implementation. There has been significant progress on governance issues, and corruption and broader financial integrity risks need to continue to be effectively addressed. The authorities have taken measures to strengthen accountability in the use of public resources and have boosted the transparency of public procurement for emergency resources. The Haitian authorities have expressed interest in another SMP, which should help maintain macroeconomic stability, lock in, and sustain recent approved reforms to further enhance economic resilience and governance.
Keywords:
SMP staff report; food price inflation; policy reform; IMF's transparency policy; Haiti's Staff-Monitored Program; economic policy objective; management of the International Monetary Fund; Budget planning and preparation; Energy subsidies; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Senegal: Sixth Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument and Third Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement and the Arrangement Under the Stand-By Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Senegal
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Weaker external demand, rising food and energy prices, tightening financial conditions, and the US dollar appreciation have negatively impacted the Senegalese economy. Add to that, multiple challenges facing the country, including heightened regional insecurity and growing social demands amid soaring cost of living. As a result, growth was further revised down to 4.7 percent and inflation up to 8.5 percent in 2022, while the fiscal accounts are under increasing strain. The challenging external and domestic environment will continue to weigh on the economy in the near term and risks are titled to the downside. Medium-term growth prospects appear more favorable with the temporary boost from oil and gas production set to start in late 2023.
Keywords:
Senegalese authorities; debt policy; deficit target; IMF staff calculation; transparency policy; Energy subsidies; Government debt management; Budget planning and preparation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Senegal: Sixth Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument and Third Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement and the Arrangement Under the Stand-By Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Senegal
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper focuses on Senegal’s Sixth Review under the Policy Coordination Instrument and Third Reviews under the Stand-By Arrangement and the Arrangement under the Standby Credit Facility. Weaker external demand, rising food and energy prices, tightening financial conditions, and the US dollar appreciation have negatively impacted the Senegalese economy. Moreover, multiple challenges are facing the country, including heightened regional insecurity and growing social demands amid soaring cost of living. Program performance was broadly satisfactory. All end-June 2022 performance criteria and two out of three indicative targets were met. Three out of nine structural benchmarks were implemented on time. Revenue collection through end-September was stronger than expected but soaring energy subsidies led the government to delay some investment projects. Spending pressures are mounting in 2023, making the much-needed fiscal consolidation more difficult. The authorities and staff agreed on a revised 2022 budget that maintains the fiscal deficit at 6.2 percent of gross domestic product, in line with the previous program review, through additional revenue measures and savings to offset larger energy subsidies.
Keywords:
Senegalese authorities; debt policy; deficit target; IMF staff calculation; transparency policy; Energy subsidies; Government debt management; Budget planning and preparation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
partner diversification; trend growth; governance vulnerability; trend output growth; CIS economy; Total factor productivity; Business cycles; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal risks; Global; Europe; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on the Republic of Kazakhstan focuses on revisiting trend output growth. Trend growth in Kazakhstan has decreased to 2–3 percent due to declining contributions of labor and total factor productivity (TFP). Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may have reduced the long-term trend GDP level, but it is unlikely to have affected trend GDP growth. Structural reforms to reduce the state footprint in the economy, strengthen public and corporate governance, diversify the economy and exports away from extractive sectors, and promote technological change, are critical to increase future trend GDP growth. The monthly trend-cycle decomposition developed in this Selected Issues Paper may help expand the information set available to policymakers when taking base rate policy decisions. COVID-19 has depressed both trend level and growth in the short term through headwinds to labor, capital, and TFP. It could also affect long-term trend growth through the destruction of human capital, but it is too early to assess the statistical significance of this effect. In any case, structural reforms will be needed to increase trend growth. Priorities include reducing the state footprint, strengthening public and corporate governance, and economic and trade diversification. Increasing the share of investment, including foreign direct investment in nonextractive industries should promote R&D, innovation, and higher TFP.
Keywords:
partner diversification; trend growth; governance vulnerability; trend output growth; CIS economy; Total factor productivity; Business cycles; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal risks; Global; Europe; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Moldova: First Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility, and Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria and Inflation Consultation Clause-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Moldova
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Moldova’s economy is projected to stagnate in 2022 amid spillovers from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The war in Ukraine continues to weigh heavily on Moldova, although some initial pressures have subsided. Bank deposit net withdrawals came to an end and are now steadily being replenished. The leu depreciated by about 8 percent so far while pressures on foreign reserves have eased. About 550,000 refugees fleeing the war (representing more than 20 percent of the Moldovan population) have transited through Moldova, with about a fifth remaining in the country. Driven by rising food and energy prices, inflation accelerated further above the target band.
Keywords:
General government budget; Policy discussion; program implementation; policy effectiveness; inflation consultation clause; governance reform; Inflation; Energy prices; Budget planning and preparation; Import prices; Credit; Global; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kenya: Third Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Under the Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, and Requests for Modification of Quantitative Performance Criteria, and Waiver of Applicability for Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statements by the Executive Director and by Staff Representative for Kenya
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper highlights Kenya’s Third Reviews under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility and under the Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility, Requests for Modification of Quantitative Performance Criteria, and Waiver of Applicability for Performance Criteria. A strong recovery is underway, although global shocks due to spillovers from the war in Ukraine are creating new spending needs and adding to inflation pressures through rising global fuel, fertilizer, and food prices. Kenya’s program is delivering resilience by helping the country navigate these global shocks while still meeting the authorities’ targets and continuing to make progress in addressing debt vulnerabilities. Strong fiscal performance is providing a welcome resilience. Although the authorities are adjusting domestic fuel prices to international levels more gradually, program targets are still being met thanks to strong tax revenues. Maintaining the momentum in the authorities’ structural reform agenda is critical. Building on the ongoing efforts to improve the oversight of state-owned enterprises, it is essential to advance the restructuring of Kenya Airways and restore the long-term viability of Kenya Power and Lighting Company.
Keywords:
headline consumer price inflation; inflation target band; growth outturn; staff recommendation; Kenyan authorities; Fuel prices; Budget planning and preparation; Energy subsidies; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Moldova: Ad Hoc Review Under the Extended Credit Facility; Request for Augmentation and Rephasing of Access, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Completion of the Inflation Consultation Under the Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility Arrangements-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Moldova
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The economy rebounded strongly from the pandemic recession last year while prudent macroeconomic management maintained robust buffers. But the war in Ukraine and the international sanctions imposed on Russia and Belarus have resulted in significant spillovers to Moldova, with implications yet to fully play out. At the outbreak of hostilities, FX market pressures triggered significant foreign currency interventions and bank deposit withdrawals, while dollarization has intensified. Moldova has received the highest per capita inflow of Ukrainian refugees (17 percent of the total population), of which about 100,000 refugees (4 percent of the total population) remain in Moldova. Driven by rising food and energy prices, inflation accelerated further above the target band.
Keywords:
authorities in Moldova; inflation consultation; General government budget; authorities' effort; balance-of-payment financing requirement; reform commitment; Energy prices; Inflation; Debt sustainability analysis; Global; Europe; Eastern Europe