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Business and Economics > Budgeting

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Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Mongolia: Technical Assistance Report-Macroeconomic Framework Technical Assistance: Scoping Mission
International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development
Further to Mongolia’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) request, an assessment mission was carried out from May 24 to June 2, 2023. The mission reviewed the needs, capacity and constraints for the development of institutional macroeconomic forecasting capacity at the Financial and Fiscal Research Department (FFRD). Notably, despite FFRD’s ambitious goals in fiscal policymaking, a comprehensive macroeconomic framework for analysis, forecasting, and assessing fiscal policy's macroeconomic impact is not yet in place. The action plan and logical framework is centered around capacity development and customization of the Comprehensive Adaptive Expectations Model (CAEM) to the Mongolia economy. This note summarizes the main findings and action plan agreed on for the project.
Keywords:
Macroeconomic Framework; Forecasting and Policy Analysis; Comprehensive Adaptive Expectations Model (CAEM); Mongolia.; IMF mission team; FFRD officer; Mongolia's Ministry of Finance; FFRD staff monitor; data management practice; macroeconomic projection tool; Macro-fiscal framework; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Budget planning and preparation; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Upgrading Fiscal Frameworks in Asia-Pacific
Enrique Flores
,
Pranav Gupta
,
Yinqiu Lu
,
Paulo A Medas
,
Dinar Prihardini
,
Hoda Selim
,
Weining Xin
, and
Masafumi Yabara
This paper seeks to guide the reform of fiscal frameworks in Asia-Pacific in the context of calls for a more active fiscal policy in a shock-prone world. It highlights that the cost of fiscal support is large and that fiscal frameworks, including fiscal rules, are being put to the test given the sharp increase in debt, high interest and weaker growth prospects. The stress is only compounded by long-term challenges like aging populations, climate change and the need to deliver on the sustainable development goals. In this context, it is timely to review the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Asia-Pacific and seek for ways to strengthen fiscal frameworks. After the global financial crisis, fiscal policy in Asia-Pacific became more countercylical and stronger than in other regions—especially in advanced economies. The paper shows that the degree of countercyclicality has been asymetric, with larger responses during periods of weak growth, and in particular in response to large shocks—the global financial crisis and the pandemic. It highlights that responses to the pandemic were large and used a wide range of tools, and how fiscal and monetary policy complemented each as they responded to large shocks. It looks into the deterioration of debt dynamics in Asia-Pacific, as public debt has been rising persistently across most countries driven by declining growth and rising deficits—particualrly after the global financial crisis for advanced economies and after the pandemic for emerging market and low income countries. The paper reviews fiscal frameworks across Asia-Pacific, including the use of fiscal rules, medium-term fiscal frameworks, and fiscal councils. It describes the characteristics of fiscal rules, which usually focus on debt and budget balances and are set by law but tend to lack well-specified enforcement mechanism or escape clauses. It highlights that compliance with the rules has worsened following the pandemic as—in contrast with the outturns before the pandemic--Asia-Pacific countries tend to show larger deviations relative to other regions. It also shows that despite the increase adoption of medium-term fiscal frameworks in Asia-Pacific forward guidance has been hampered by the lack of binding targets and ex-post analysis. Moreover, they do not seem to have resulted in better macro-fiscal forecast in part due to weak capacity and enforcement, lack of integration with the annual budget, and exposure to shocks—with risk analysis mostly limited to qualitative discussions. Proposed reforms seek to implement a comprehensive, risk-based approach to public finances. They focus on strengthening the medium-term orientation of fiscal policy through credible medium-term fiscal plans, fiscal rules linked to the medium-term strategy and the annual budgets, and a stronger reliance on fiscal councils. They also emphasize the need for a broader view of the public sector as fiscal policy is being conducted through multiple channels, which requires assessing and managing vulnerabilities and a significant improvement in fiscal statistics. They also address aging and climate change by focusing on assessing large intergenerational trade-offs, reporting on long-term debt dynamics, and on green medium-term fiscal frameworks that incorporate the effects of climate change and climate policies.
Keywords:
Fiscal Rules Fiscal Frameworks Medium-term Fiscal Frameworks Public Debt Sustainability automatic stabilizers Climate Change Population Aging; Asia-Pacific country; Asia-Pacific economy; Asia-Pacific region; IMF country team; SRDSF country; Fiscal rules; Fiscal governance; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Asia and Pacific; Global; Pacific Islands
Cover High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
Mongolia: Public Investment Management Assessment Update
Guohua Huang
,
Ozlem Aydin
,
Lishuo Li
, and
Juana Aristizabal
An IMF team found that Mongolia has made progress in public investment management since the 2016 PIMA. However, several challenges persist, and new issues are emerging. The team has identified five high-priority recommendations that could improve PIM processes and support the effective implementation of the government's investment aspirations.
Keywords:
Public investment management; IMF team; high-priority recommendation; capacity development recipient; investment plan; project appraisal; Public investment spending; Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA); Budget planning and preparation; Asia and Pacific
Cover Policy Papers
FY2023-FY2025 Medium-Term Budget
International Monetary Fund. Office of Budget and Planning
FY2023-FY2025 Medium-Term Budget
Keywords:
targeted budget augmentation framework; financial support; B. budget change; capital budget; budget resource; augmentation allocation; Budget planning and preparation; Capital budget; Digital currencies; Climate change; Global; Budgeting; Budgets; Capital Budget; Augmentation
Cover Policy Papers
FY2021—Output Cost Estimates and Budget Outturn
International Monetary Fund. Office of Budget and Planning
The paper presents highlights from the FY 2021 budget, followed by a discussion of outputs based on the Fund Thematic Categories and of inputs.
Keywords:
fund Output; staff Hours; agile response; transparency policy; output cost estimate; Budget planning and preparation; COVID-19; Capital spending; Total expenditures; Global; Central Asia
Cover Policy Papers
FY 2022 - FY 2024 Medium-Term Budget
International Monetary Fund. Office of Budget and Planning
Amidst the unfolding COVID-19 crisis, the Fund faces twin challenges. Signs of early crisis recovery are uneven across countries, and many face daunting crisis legacies. At the same time, longer term challenges from climate change, digitalization and increasing divergence within and between countries demand stepped up effort by the Fund within its areas of expertise and in partnership with others. FY 22-24 budget framework. Considering these challenges and following a decade of flat real budgets, staff will propose a structural augmentation for consideration by fall 2021 to be implemented over two to three years beginning in FY 23. Recognizing the importance of ongoing fiscal prudence, the budget would remain stable thereafter on a real basis at a new, higher level. FY 22 administrative budget. The proposed FY 22 budget sustains crisis response and provides incremental resources for long-term priorities within the flat real budget envelope. The budget is built on extensive reprioritization; savings, including from modernization; and a proposed temporary increase in the carry forward ceiling to address crisis needs during the FY 22 to FY 24 period. Capital budget. Large-scale business modernization programs continue to be rolled out, strengthening the agility and efficiency of the Fund’s operations. In response to the shift towards cloud-based IT solutions, staff propose a change in the budgetary treatment of these expenses. Investment in facilities will focus on timely updates, repairs, and modernization, preparing for the post-crisis Fund where virtual engagement and a new hybrid office environment play a larger role. Budget sustainability. The FY 22–24 medium-term budget framework, including assumptions for a material augmentation, is consistent with a projected surplus in the Fund’s medium-term income position and with continued progress towards the precautionary balance target for coming years. Budget risks. In the midst of a global crisis, risks to the budget remain elevated and above risk acceptance levels, including from uncertainty around the level of demand for Fund programs and ensuing staffing needs, as well as future donor funding for CD. Enterprise risk management continues to be strengthened with this budget.
Keywords:
budget framework; risk matrix; budget summary; IMF's budget deflator; Medium-Term capital budget; capital budget envelope; approved FY; Budget planning and preparation; Climate change; COVID-19; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Global
Cover Policy Papers
FY 2021-FY 2023 Medium-Term Budget
International Monetary Fund. Office of Budget and Planning
On April 27, 2020, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved the IMF’s administrative and capital budgets for financial year (FY) 2021, beginning May 1, 2020, and took note of indicative budgets for FY 2022–23.
Keywords:
PP; IMF's budget deflator; budget; capital investment; fund; capital investment framework; work program; fund remains; video conferencing capability; CD operation; budget process; fund member; Budget planning and preparation; Capital budget; Climate change; Global; fund Toolkit; Crisis management
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Mongolia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper aims to take stock of key challenges and propose recommendations on how to address them. Mongolia has taken important steps to address these challenges, but more should be done to tackle remaining gaps and ensure effective enforcement. Improving governance is a crucial step for Mongolia to achieve sustainable and inclusive growth. In order to substantially reduce corruption, a stronger anti-corruption framework should be accompanied by governance reforms across a range of state functions. On rule of law, the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) place Mongolia above peers in Asia but below regional averages, indicating room for improvement. Although Mongolia has developed a legal framework since the transition to a market economy, observers point out that there are often loopholes and unintended consequences. Weak revenue administration can undermine fiscal sustainability while uneven enforcement of tax rules can damage the investment climate. State-owned enterprises would benefit from better governance, particularly given their central role in output and potential for creating fiscal liabilities.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; governance; BOM.; independence; financing; resource; livestock sector; mineral wealth; agriculture sector; livestock industry; adult livestock; meat export; debt anchor; fiscal policy framework; Agricultural commodities; Fiscal rules; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Mongolia: 2015 Article IV Consultation—Staff Report; Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for Mongolia
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Mongolia’s medium- to long-term prospects are promising given its large natural resources. In the near term, however, the country continues to face balance-of-payments (BOP) pressures on account of low foreign direct investment and weak commodity prices, as well as expansionary macro policies. Imports have now started to taper off and, with the first phase of the Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine now in operation, exports have picked up. The trade balance has thus improved, but the overall BOP remains weak. The executive directors have supported ongoing efforts to foster high, inclusive growth by improving the investment climate, enhancing competitiveness, and promoting economic diversification.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; deficit; DBM spending; GDP; authority; DBM governance; spending of the Development Bank of Mongolia; CAR calculation; debt data; Budget planning and preparation; Commercial banks; External sector statistics; Global; Central Asia; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Mongolia: Second Post-Program Monitoring Discussions
International Monetary Fund
This paper presents the second postprogram monitoring discussions on Mongolia’s economic developments. The Mongolian economy is undergoing a rapid expansion underpinned by strong commodity prices. Macroeconomic policies have been too expansionary, and the economy is overheating. A steady erosion of fiscal discipline, set against a backdrop of heightened global economic risks, has raised the risk of macroeconomic instability. There is an urgent need to reorient policies to contain overheating and strengthen the economy’s ability to endure deterioration in the global environment.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; rate hike; rate; hike; budget amendment; monetary policy tightening; inflation pressure; IMF staff projection; PFM legal and regulatory frameworks; Bank supervision; Inflation; Budget planning and preparation; Financial statistics; Global; Asia and Pacific