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International Monetary Fund
Strong policy implementation under the Stand By-Arrangement (SBA) has contributed to Latvia’s economic recovery and put attainment of Maastricht criteria for euro adoption within reach. The government has continued to achieve substantial fiscal savings and strengthened its active labor market policy. Executive Directors stressed the need to implement plans for reforming state-owned banks and to promote market-based debt restructuring. Directors advised to maintain strong budget implementation in 2011 and focus on reducing taxes in the 2012 budget. They encouraged to enhance efficiency of state-owned enterprises to keep inflation under control.
Mauricio Soto
,
Frank Eich
, and
Mr. Benedict J. Clements
Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.
Mr. Romain Ranciere
,
Aaron Tornell
, and
Mr. Athanasios Vamvakidis
This paper constructs a new measure of currency mismatch in the banking sector that controls for bank lending to unhedged borrowers. This measure explicitly takes into account the indirect exchange rate risk that banks undertake when they lend to borrowers that will not be able to repay in the event of a sharp depreciation. Such systemic risk taking is not captured by indicators that are based only on banks’ balance sheet data. The new measure is constructed for 10 emerging European economies and for a broader sample that includes 19 additional emerging economies, for the period 1998 - 2008. Comparisons with previous currency mismatch measures that do not adjust for unhedged foreign currency borrowing illustrate the advantages of the new approach. In particular, the new measure flagged the indirect currency mismatch vulnerabilities that were building up in a number of emerging economies before the recent global crisis. Measuring currency mismatch more accurately can help country authorities in their efforts to address vulnerabilities at the right time, avoiding hurting growth prospects.
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the Second Review and Financing Assurances Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement for Latvia. The sharp economic downturn is starting to bottom out, although recovery has not yet begun. The authorities have implemented the June 2009 supplementary budget, and met with a wide margin the end-September performance criterion on the adjusted primary balance. The continuous performance criterion on external payments arrears was missed by a small amount, which the authorities expect to resolve soon.
International Monetary Fund
The Latvian authorities have strengthened their intervention capacity, financial supervision, and monitoring framework, and have taken steps to contain risks in Parex Bank. The staff report reviews the Republic of Latvia’s economic developments and policies. Substantial progress has been achieved in stabilizing the financial sector. The collapse in output has revealed significant underlying fiscal weaknesses that risk leading to unsustainable deficits in the absence of strong corrective measures. The deeper downturn is also in part explained by the much worse-than-projected international environment.
International Monetary Fund
The Latvian economy has made remarkable strides, combining macroeconomic stability with rapid income convergence. An upfront policy tightening is needed to contain near-term overheating and secure a soft landing. Fiscal restraint is needed to counter the sizable demand stimulus already in play. Moderating credit growth is essential to relieve overheating pressures. Risks from the credit boom and delayed euro adoption reinforce the need for a strong regulatory and supervisory framework for banks. Safeguarding competitiveness while narrowing the wage gap requires scaling the technology ladder.
International Monetary Fund
This 2004 Article IV Consultation highlights that since the last Article IV consultation discussions, economic activity in Latvia has maintained its momentum. GDP grew 7½ percent in 2003 and 8¾ percent year over year in the first quarter of 2004; however, inflation climbed to 6.1 percent at end-June, from 3.6 percent at end-2003. Fiscal performance has improved appreciably, and public debt remains low. The general budget deficit, at 1.6 percent of GDP in 2003, narrowed by nearly 1 percentage point from 2002, reflecting lower-than-budgeted expenditures, unexpectedly high tax revenues, and lower net lending.
Mr. Adalbert Knöbl
and
Mr. Richard D Haas
The paper is an economic history of the IMF’s involvement in the Baltic states. It describes and analyzes the initial economic stabilization; the period of consolidation and recovery; the effects of the Russian crisis of 1998; and the current growth phases of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. There is also an assessment of cooperation with the Fund based on interviews with a number of ex-officials. The major conclusion is that the Baltics have been so successful because of their early commitment to change the stabilization and reform policies needed for successful transition, and their ownership of their IMF-supported programs.
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
International Monetary Fund
This 2003 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Republic of Latvia has enjoyed continued strong economic performance since the last Article IV Consultation in January 2002. Real GDP growth was 7.9 percent in 2001 and 6.1 percent in 2002; growth has been led by investment and, more recently, consumption. Real per capita GDP now stands some 50 percent above its 1995 level. Inflation remains low and was under 1½ percent in 2002. The current account deficit rose to nearly 10 percent of GDP in 2001, partly reflecting stagnant external demand and one-time factors.