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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that Lesotho’s economy continues to face a number of challenges in the wake of the pandemic. Climate shocks, delays to infrastructure projects, high food and fuel prices, declining diamond prices, layoffs in the textiles sector, and weak regional and external demand are weighing on activity. The government is prioritizing fiscal consolidation on the back of windfall transfers from the Southern African Customs Union, which have helped alleviate near-term pressures on financing and reserves. Alongside, broad-ranging structural reforms will be vital for the economy to transition to durable, resilient, inclusive, job-rich, and sustainable private sector-led growth. The IMF Staff strongly encourages efforts to improve the business environment, strengthen financial stability, and enhance business lending. The Staff strongly encourages the authorities to continue their efforts to increase capacity, improve data quality, and coordinate closely on macroeconomic policies. High data quality and information sharing are critical for policymaking—from measuring economic performance to forecasting.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Lesotho has been simultaneously hit by the pandemic, declining transfers from the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), and the impact of the war in Ukraine. The pandemic exacerbated the impact of sluggish regional performance, climate shocks, and longstanding structural issues such as regulation, governance, political stability, financial inclusion, and diversification. Public expenditure has continued to increase, such that the decline in external transfers precipitated significant financing pressures and growing domestic arrears. With limited inflows to the private sector, the resulting public sector-driven external imbalances have continued to put pressure on international reserves needed to maintain the exchange rate peg.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This paper on government finance statistics (GFS) mission in Lesotho presents a review of progress against recommendations of previous GFS technical assistance (TA) missions and further assist with improving the quality of GFS currently compiled and disseminated. The mission reviewed progress with implementation of previous GFS TA recommendations and updated the public sector institutional table. The mission reviewed the new compilation methods and noted some improvements with the approach. Accounts payable are now recorded under financing, to bridge the timing difference of commitment basis expenditure. The report explains that the legal and institutional environment is conducive to compiling macroeconomic and financial statistics; the relevance and practical utility of existing macroeconomic and financial statistics are monitored; management processes are in place to monitor the quality of macroeconomic and financial statistics; and institutional integrity, transparency, and ethical practices meet statistical standards. There is still a need to correct recording to distinguish expense from acquisition of financial assets.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation highlights that while international reserves are at adequate levels and banks remain well-capitalized in the Republic of Lesotho, domestic arrears are beginning to impact the broader economy, exacerbating growth challenges posed by structural impediments. The recently passed FY2019/20 budget envisages an ambitious consolidation that could begin to lay the groundwork for a transition to private-sector driven growth. Construction related to the second phase of the Lesotho Highlands Water Project will support medium-term growth, and the diamond and textile industries have positive prospects. Fiscal adjustment is needed to address government arrears, buttress debt sustainability, and safeguard the link to the rand. Generating strong and inclusive growth will require improved public service delivery and the private sector to become the primary engine of job creation. Better targeting of the government’s resources, Public Financial Management reforms, and reorienting both expenditures and the role of government in the economy will be critical to achieve these goals.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance Report discusses the findings and recommendations made by the IMF mission regarding compilation of Government Finance Statistics (GFS) in Lesotho. The IMF mission reviewed current compilation methods of GFS for the budgetary central government and found that there were significant accuracy, classification, coverage, and comprehensiveness issues that undermine the credibility of fiscal statistics currently compiled and disseminated. Currently compiled and disseminated GFS include a large and persistent statistical discrepancy. The statistical discrepancy averaged to about a third of total revenue in preliminary data for FY2016/17 and FY2017/18. The mission also identified and discussed with the staff of the Ministry of Finance a number of reasons that may partly explain the discrepancy.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The 2015 Article IV Consultation discusses key issues related to the economic growth of Lesotho. Although Lesotho achieved solid economic growth with only moderate inflation in the several years, this growth has failed to reduce poverty in the country. Lesotho's major chunk of revenue comes from South African Customs Union to finance large government expenditures, but this revenue will fall sharply in fiscal year 2016/17. Despite having substantial international reserves and fiscal buffers, a major fiscal adjustment over the next two to three years will be needed to maintain macroeconomic stability. The private sector needs to be the engine for job creation to strengthen inclusiveness.
International Monetary Fund
Lesotho has made progress toward macroeconomic stability. After recent economic development, diamond production, garment industry, and good performance in the agriculture and service sectors were recovered. The fiscal position and public debt sustainability indicators have improved. Achievement of these objectives will call for an acceleration of the pace of structural reforms with a focus on promoting private sector development, while ensuring strong medium-term fiscal and external positions. The envisaged programs would be key to relieving constraints on growth and enhancing productivity.
International Monetary Fund
Lesotho is a small, landlocked, low-income country, with limited natural resources and a narrow production and export base. In recent Article IV consultations, IMF staff has emphasized the importance of ensuring that increases in outlays for poverty reduction are consistent with fiscal sustainability and absorptive capacity. However, economic activity has remained sluggish, reflecting the adverse impact of exogenous shocks. Fiscal management is becoming more challenging. The authorities are making efforts to implement their poverty reduction strategy. The political situation is relatively stable.
International Monetary Fund
This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that Namibia recorded robust real GDP growth, falling inflation, a strong external current account surplus, and continued low external indebtedness over the last two years. Real GDP grew by 6 percent in 2004, as new marine technologies prompted a surge in diamond production and most other sectors of the economy showed solid economic activity, aided by a decline in interest rates. Growth slowed in 2005, as diamond production fell relative to the high production base of the previous year and growth rates in other sectors moderated somewhat.
International Monetary Fund
Economic growth in Swaziland has weakened over the past decade. This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that real GDP growth decelerated to 2.1 percent in 2004 and an estimated 1.8 percent in 2005. A prolonged drought affected agricultural output, particularly maize, the main staple crop, and cotton. The authorities completed a “Poverty Reduction Strategy and Action Plan” in October 2004. The document spells out policies with the overall objective of halving the 1995 poverty rate by 2015. However, little progress has been made toward this and other Millennium Development Goals.