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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Liberia continues to face substantial long-term development challenges. Resource constraints and substantial gaps in infrastructure and human capital have hindered Liberia’s growth prospects and the authorities’ efforts to improve living standards. Addressing these challenges will require sustained efforts to mobilize additional revenues, enhance financial stability, improve public financial management, and seek external grants and highly concessional loans for key capital investment projects. Improvements in these areas would help create fiscal space to scale up investment in infrastructure and human capital, thus unleashing the country’s growth potential.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Liberia’s Request for a 40-Year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). The 40-month financing package will support the authorities’ Economic Reform Agenda to address macroeconomic imbalances, strengthen debt sustainability, and lay the foundations for higher, more inclusive, and private sector-led growth, beyond the enclave sector. The ECF arrangement is expected to catalyze additional external financing from international financial institutions and development partners. Liberia’s economic vulnerability has worsened in recent years. Fiscal slippages have compromised public debt sustainability, contributing to a sharp decline in international reserves. Governance weaknesses have also persisted. The authorities are firmly committed to revitalizing the reform agenda to support macroeconomic stability, promote broad-based economic development, and reduce widespread poverty. Comprehensive structural reforms, including improvements in governance and transparency, are critical for achieving these objectives. Maintaining strong program ownership, supported by capacity development, will be crucial to ensure program success and continued donor support.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Liberia is a fragile, low-income country. Per-capita income remains about a third of the level prior to the civil wars during 1989-2003. After a bout of economic instability, prudent monetary and fiscal policies reduced inflation to just over 5 percent in 2021 and budgets are financed without recourse to central bank credit. Economic growth suffered first from macroeconomic instability and then from the COVID-19 pandemic. Growth rebounded to 5 percent in 2021 and, after a soft patch this year due to Russia’s war in Ukraine, should reach 5-6 percent in the medium term if Liberia taps its clear potential through persistent structural reforms and prudent policies. The government’s resolve will be tested in the runup to the general elections in September 2023.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Ensuring macroeconomic stability, providing a foundation for sustainable and inclusive growth, and addressing weak governance are the tenets of the ECF-supported program. The COVID-19 pandemic was a painful setback, but economic activity should recover by end-2021 and prospects for growth in 2022 are favorable. Prudent monetary and fiscal policies allowed inflation to decline into the single digits. The authorities are addressing disruptive currency shortages through a comprehensive currency changeover operation. While the SDR allocation provides timely room for supportive policies without compromising macroeconomic stability, the authorities remain committed to their reform program and generally continue to implement the necessary measures.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Restoring macroeconomic stability, providing a foundation for sustainable inclusive growth, and addressing weaknesses in governance remain the main objectives of this program. While allowing for a slight fiscal loosening to meet humanitarian needs during the COVID-19 pandemic, tight monetary policy, much improved public financial management, domestic revenue mobilization, and zero central bank financing have supported the administration’s efforts to achieve price and exchange rate stability. This has helped to preserve the purchasing power of the poor who were the most affected by the high inflation environment at the program’s inception. The authorities consider bringing the ECF-supported program back on track of utmost importance and are committed to their development plan, the Pro-Poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development (PAPD).
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Liberia remains a fragile, post-conflict country with weak capacity and limited physical and human capital accumulation. External assistance to Liberia is winding down from its peak in 2016. To address pressing needs, the government launched its Pro-Poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development (PAPD), focusing on physical and human capital accumulation. Policy uncertainty and slippages, however, imposed a significant toll on the economy over the past two years. Particularly, higher fiscal deficits and accommodative monetary policy have led to rapid depreciation of the Liberia dollar and increased inflation, eroding the purchasing power of the poor.
International Monetary Fund
Capacity development (CD) is one of the Fund’s three core activities and has grown in importance in recent years. It supports member countries’ efforts to build the institutions and capacity necessary to formulate and implement sound economic policies, thereby complementing the Fund’s surveillance and lending mandates. Member countries, partners, and external commentators give the Fund high marks for the quality of its CD. At the same time, efforts need to continue to strengthen Fund CD to serve members’ current and evolving needs. The 2018 CD Strategy Review examines progress under the Fund’s 2013 CD Strategy and proposes a CD strategy for the next five years. It notes substantial progress in addressing the 2013 recommendations, which included strengthening the CD governance structure, enhancing the prioritization processes, clarifying the funding model, strengthening monitoring and evaluation, promoting greater integration of TA and training, exploiting new technologies for delivery, and leveraging CD as outreach. However, background work for this review also pointed to the need to strengthen the CD framework further. The review builds upon the existing CD strategy, focusing on two mutually reinforcing objectives. First, the impact of Fund CD needs to be increased by further strengthening integration with the Fund’s policy advice and lending operations, while continuing to make progress in framing CD through comprehensive strategies tailored to each member’s needs, capacity, and conditions, focusing on implementation and outcomes. Stronger coordination between CD and the Fund’s other core functions will better connect CD with countries’ risks and vulnerabilities and ensure surveillance and lending integrate lessons from CD more effectively. Second, the efficiency of CD needs to be increased by improving CD processes and systems. This will enhance transparency and strengthen the basis for strategic decision making. Five specific areas of recommendations support the strategy. Likewise, they mitigate institutional risks stemming from the Fund’s CD activities. They include clearer roles and responsibilities for key internal and external stakeholders in the CD process; continued strengthening of prioritization and monitoring; better tailoring and modernization of CD delivery with a focus on implementation of TA recommendations; greater internal consultation and sharing of CD information; and further progress in external coordination, communication, and dissemination of information (Annex I).
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This IMF Staff Report highlights that the robust economic growth in Côte d’Ivoire is projected to continue in 2018. The inflation remains subdued. The program aims to achieve a sustainable balance of payments position, foster inclusive growth and poverty reduction, and create fiscal space for investing in priority infrastructure and social projects. Strong economic performance since 2012, with average annual growth of 9 percent, reflected the economic recovery following political normalization, improved business environment, strong program of reforms, and supportive fiscal policy. A key policy challenge is to sustain robust growth and make it more inclusive and private sector-driven. Robust medium-term growth is expected to be supported by domestic demand.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This report reviews the IMF’s effort to build fiscal capacity in fragile states. It presents case studies on IMF technical assistance (TA) and capacity development in the fiscal area, provided by its Fiscal Affairs Department in collaboration with the Legal Department, in countries including Afghanistan, Haiti, Kosovo, Liberia, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, and Timor-Leste. The details in the case studies in various areas of fiscal policy management shed light on country-specific characteristics, how well IMF TA helped countries address fiscal capacity in the past, and lessons learned that could improve TA strategies and delivery in the future.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Liberia’s Fifth and Sixth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Augmentation of Access, and Extension of the Arrangement. Two end-December 2015 and three end-June performance criteria were missed. Two out of nine structural benchmarks for the fifth review were met, while three were completed late. Three out of five structural benchmarks for the sixth review were met. The IMF staff supports the completion of the fifth and sixth reviews and the authorities’ requests for waivers of nonobservance of performance criteria, augmentation of ECF access, and extension of the ECF arrangement.