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Business and Economics > Budgeting

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Cover Departmental Papers
Upgrading Fiscal Frameworks in Asia-Pacific
Enrique Flores
,
Pranav Gupta
,
Yinqiu Lu
,
Paulo A Medas
,
Dinar Prihardini
,
Hoda Selim
,
Weining Xin
, and
Masafumi Yabara
This paper seeks to guide the reform of fiscal frameworks in Asia-Pacific in the context of calls for a more active fiscal policy in a shock-prone world. It highlights that the cost of fiscal support is large and that fiscal frameworks, including fiscal rules, are being put to the test given the sharp increase in debt, high interest and weaker growth prospects. The stress is only compounded by long-term challenges like aging populations, climate change and the need to deliver on the sustainable development goals. In this context, it is timely to review the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Asia-Pacific and seek for ways to strengthen fiscal frameworks. After the global financial crisis, fiscal policy in Asia-Pacific became more countercylical and stronger than in other regions—especially in advanced economies. The paper shows that the degree of countercyclicality has been asymetric, with larger responses during periods of weak growth, and in particular in response to large shocks—the global financial crisis and the pandemic. It highlights that responses to the pandemic were large and used a wide range of tools, and how fiscal and monetary policy complemented each as they responded to large shocks. It looks into the deterioration of debt dynamics in Asia-Pacific, as public debt has been rising persistently across most countries driven by declining growth and rising deficits—particualrly after the global financial crisis for advanced economies and after the pandemic for emerging market and low income countries. The paper reviews fiscal frameworks across Asia-Pacific, including the use of fiscal rules, medium-term fiscal frameworks, and fiscal councils. It describes the characteristics of fiscal rules, which usually focus on debt and budget balances and are set by law but tend to lack well-specified enforcement mechanism or escape clauses. It highlights that compliance with the rules has worsened following the pandemic as—in contrast with the outturns before the pandemic--Asia-Pacific countries tend to show larger deviations relative to other regions. It also shows that despite the increase adoption of medium-term fiscal frameworks in Asia-Pacific forward guidance has been hampered by the lack of binding targets and ex-post analysis. Moreover, they do not seem to have resulted in better macro-fiscal forecast in part due to weak capacity and enforcement, lack of integration with the annual budget, and exposure to shocks—with risk analysis mostly limited to qualitative discussions. Proposed reforms seek to implement a comprehensive, risk-based approach to public finances. They focus on strengthening the medium-term orientation of fiscal policy through credible medium-term fiscal plans, fiscal rules linked to the medium-term strategy and the annual budgets, and a stronger reliance on fiscal councils. They also emphasize the need for a broader view of the public sector as fiscal policy is being conducted through multiple channels, which requires assessing and managing vulnerabilities and a significant improvement in fiscal statistics. They also address aging and climate change by focusing on assessing large intergenerational trade-offs, reporting on long-term debt dynamics, and on green medium-term fiscal frameworks that incorporate the effects of climate change and climate policies.
Keywords:
Fiscal Rules Fiscal Frameworks Medium-term Fiscal Frameworks Public Debt Sustainability automatic stabilizers Climate Change Population Aging; Asia-Pacific country; Asia-Pacific economy; Asia-Pacific region; IMF country team; SRDSF country; Fiscal rules; Fiscal governance; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Asia and Pacific; Global; Pacific Islands
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Sri Lanka: Technical Assistance Report-Governance Diagnostic Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
,
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
,
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
, and
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
This technical assistance report on Sri Lanka discusses the Governance Diagnostic Assessment. In recent years, a confluence of shocks and policy missteps led to a deep economic and governance crisis. Sri Lanka continues to face severe economic, social and governance challenges. The authorities have requested IMF assistance to analyse governance weaknesses and corruption vulnerabilities that are macro-critical in their own right and stand in the way of achieving the objectives of the reform program. The report highlights immediate and short-term measures to address key corruption issues, as well as structural reforms that require more time and resources but are essential to strengthen governance and initiate lasting change. The recommendations are designed as a coherent approach to improving governance through a focus on: clarity of authority and responsibility for core functions; financial and operational independence of essential accountability and law enforcement institutions; transparency in government practices and performance, especially relating to the planning, spending, and accounting for the use of public funds and assets; inclusive, accessible, and rule-based means to enforce private agreements and challenge official behaviour; and efficient mechanisms for making information public and holding organizations and individuals to account for their performance and behaviour.
Keywords:
governance weakness; revenue administration recommendation; governance arrangement; governance concern; governance dynamics; Corruption; Revenue administration transparency and accountability; Budget planning and preparation; Auditing; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Sierra Leone: Sixth and Seventh Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility, Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Extension of the Arrangement, Rephasing of Disbursements, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sierra Leone
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Sierra Leone’s Sixth and Seventh Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Extension of the Arrangement, Rephasing of Disbursements, and Financing Assurances Review. The IMF Executive Board completed the sixth and seventh reviews under the ECF Arrangement for Sierra Leone, which allows for an immediate disbursement of funds. Sierra Leone’s economic challenges have intensified. Inflation has continued to rise; the currency has depreciated sharply; and debt related risks have increased. The authorities have requested an extension of the program to November 2023 to continue building on recent reforms and achieve program objectives. Building resilience and laying the foundations for stronger growth by consolidating public finances and addressing debt vulnerabilities, while supporting the most vulnerable, remains key to the success of the program. Structural reforms will be essential to reduce vulnerabilities to corruption and foster private sector development.
Keywords:
Sierra Leonean authorities; inflation-depreciation spiral; Policy implementation risk; FX intervention; government paper; expenditure transparency; Arrears; Debt sustainability; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Pakistan: 2021 Article IV Consultation, Sixth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, and Requests for Waivers of Applicability and Nonobservance of Performance Criteria and Rephasing of Access-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Pakistan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Economic activity has rebounded strongly on the back of waning COVID-19 infections and expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. However, strong import growth—fueled by the macroeconomic policy mix, higher international commodity prices, and credit growth—have led to a marked deterioration of the external position. The current account deficit has widened, the rupee depreciated markedly, and inflation remains persistently high.
Keywords:
Policy recommendation; test positivity rate; Covid pandemic; H. SOE sector reform; SOE debt; Greenhouse gas emissions; Public enterprises; Exports; Global; Middle East; North Africa; Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Scaling Up Quality Infrastructure Investment
Olivier Bizimana
,
Laura Jaramillo
, and
Mr. Saji Thomas
South Asia needs large infrastructure investments to achieve its development goals, and public investment can also support the Covid-19 recovery. Regression estimates that account for the quantity and quality of investment suggest that public infrastructure was a key driver of productivity growth in South Asia. Going forward, higher public infrastructure spending can raise growth, but its benefits depend on how it is financed and managed. Model simulations show that tax financing, concessional lending, or private sector financing through public private partnerships (PPPs) are more advantageous than government borrowing through financial markets because they support growth while containing the impact on public debt. However, the optimal choice also depends on available fiscal space, taxation capacity, implementation risks, and public investment efficiency. To reap the most benefits from higher infrastructure investment, South Asian countries need to manage fiscal risks carefully, including from PPPs and state-owned enterprises, and improve public investment efficiency.
Keywords:
infrastructure investment; tax financing; quality of investment; PPP financing; efficiency gap; multiyear investment planning; Public investment spending; Infrastructure; Capital budget; South Asia; Asia and Pacific; Caribbean
Cover Policy Papers
FY2018 - Output Cost Estimates and Budget Outturn
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The Fund continues to make efforts to maximize the use of available resources in order to deliver on the priorities and initiatives laid out in the Global Policy Agenda (GPA). The FY 18 outturn reflects reallocations and efficiency gains, as well as flexibility provided by carry forward resources. With the number of Fund arrangements falling, the Fund’s outputs shifted from spending on lending activity to multilateral surveillance. On the input side, the structural budget was fully utilized. This paper presents key highlights of the FY 18 outturn, including a discussion of the outputs and inputs. Details on Capacity Development (CD) are presented in Annex
Keywords:
PP; fy; spend; CD spending; expenditures FY; country spend; governance cost; travel budget; Budget planning and preparation; Total expenditures; Capital spending; Public expenditure review; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Asia: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts
Lekha Chakraborty
This paper reviews gender budgeting efforts in Asia. The countries in the region have achieved mixed success in improving gender equality. Gender budgeting is ideally a fiscal innovation that translates gender-related goals into budgetary commitments and can help countries to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals with regard to gender equality. India has a sustainable gender budgeting model for the region, while a few countries in the region have begun such efforts more recently. The legislative mandates for gender budgeting in the Philippines and South Korea are remarkable achievements and are contributing to their efforts.
Keywords:
WP; public expenditure; Gender equality; government of India; Gender budgeting; fiscal policies and administration; Asia; gender inequality; State Finance account; Bangladesh government; gender equality commitment; national budget; UN woman; State level; government budget process; public finance; government institution; management system; government program; Women; Budget planning and preparation; Asia and Pacific; East Asia; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Sri Lanka: Third Post-Program Monitoring Discussion-Staff Report; Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sri Lanka
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper focuses on Sri Lanka’s Third Post-Program Monitoring Discussion. Sri Lanka’s recent macroeconomic performance has generally been strong but risks appear to be on the rise. Real GDP growth registered 7.4 percent in 2014. Growth was broad-based, with the exception of agriculture, which suffered from drought early in the year and heavy rains and flooding in the fourth quarter. Price pressures have been contained, with headline and core inflation declining to 2.1 and 1.2 percent, respectively, by end-year. The outlook is broadly stable but set against heightened downside risks.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; headline inflation; core inflation; inflation expectation; government; deficit target; credit growth; growth momentum; Credit; Inflation; Budget planning and preparation; International reserves; Global; Central Asia; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Sri Lanka: Seventh Review under the Stand-By Arrangement and Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Extension of the Arrangement Period, Rephasing of Purchases, and Establishment of Performance Criteria—Staff Report; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sri Lanka.
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses Sri Lanka’s seventh review under the Stand-By Arrangement and requests for waivers of nonobservance of performance criteria. The strong economic recovery continued in 2011, with growth estimated at 8¼ percent. Activity was robust across all sectors, supported by healthy exports and strong growth in domestic demand. Agriculture recovered from flooding early in the year, and is expected to grow at 6 percent. The rupee came under increasing downward pressure in the second half of 2011, especially after the size of the trade deficit became apparent and started to weigh on sentiment.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; disbursement Sri Lanka; credit policy; policy; state energy enterprise; deficit; NIR target; import expenditure; Exchange rate flexibility; Oil prices; Inflation; Exchange rate arrangements; Budget planning and preparation; Global; Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Sri Lanka: Second and Third Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement-Staff Report; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sri Lanka.
International Monetary Fund
Economic conditions are improving in Sri Lanka, and are likely to show strong growth. The current account remains strong, and tourism arrivals are rapidly improving. Monetary conditions are stable, and the central bank’s policy stance is appropriate. Reforming the board of investment will address the factors that have eroded the tax base and discouraged domestic investors. Fiscal policy adjustment is needed. Tax reform will put in place legislative changes to permanently reform tax concessions. Financial sector reform has continued in line with the program.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; concession regime; authority; tax concession; authorities' reform agenda; administration structure; budget proposal; Sri Lankan authorities; monetary policy stance; interest rate regime; Budget planning and preparation; Imports; Debt reduction; Global; Asia and Pacific; Central Asia