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Business and Economics > Budgeting

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Cover Policy Papers
The Consolidated Medium-Term Income and Expenditure Framework
International Monetary Fund
The medium-term income projections have been updated since the last estimate provided to the Executive Board in April 2014. The main changes to the outlook stem from a lower path for credit outstanding and expectations for a more gradual rise in interest rates. The revised projections show lower levels of net operational income over the coming years. Lending income is lower compared with earlier estimates as a result of lower credit levels, including the advance repurchases by Ireland and Portugal. Non-lending income is also projected to be lower reflecting a further downward shift in SDR interest rates and, thus, returns on investments and interest-free resources. The updated expenditure path assumes the net administrative budget remains constant in real terms at the FY 2012 level. The long-run projections indicate a broad balance between income and expenditures, assuming that interest rates rise to 3.5 percent and with lending returning to pre-crisis levels. The pace of reserve accumulation is expected to slow, reflecting the decline in Fund credit, and precautionary balances are now projected to remain slightly below the projected target of SDR 20 billion over the medium term compared with the earlier estimates.
Keywords:
PP; income; fy; net; yield; income projection; expenditure position; gold profits; consolidated income; fund's income position; Personal income; SDR interest rate; Reserve positions; Credit; Budget planning and preparation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Solomon Islands: Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria—Staff Report; Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for Solomon Islands
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper discusses Solomon Islands’ Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria (PC). Program performance under the ECF arrangement has been broadly satisfactory. Reserve buffers have been rebuilt and are at a comfortable level, well above the average of other small states. All PCs for end-December, the indicative targets (ITs) for March, and the continuous PCs were met with considerable margins, except for the IT on government-funded recurrent spending on health and education, which was narrowly missed. Based on Solomon Islands’ program performance, the IMF staff recommends completion of the third review under the ECF-supported program.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; IMF team; ECF arrangement; government; Solomon Islands government; ECF program; growth outlook; Budget planning and preparation; Currencies; Pacific Islands
Cover Policy Papers
The Consolidated Medium-Term Income and Expenditure Framework
International Monetary Fund
The medium-term projections of Fund income and precautionary balances accumulation have been updated since the April 2012 projections. The overall income outlook remains positive with continued high lending income expected in the medium-term. The projections indicate a downward shift in the income path primarily due to lower non-lending income as a result of the low global interest rates and the agreement to phase in investments under the new gold-sales funded endowment. The updated expenditure path has not changed significantly. The projections also illustrate a broad balance between income and expenditures when lending returns to pre-crisis levels. The accumulation of precautionary balances remains strong in the medium-term. The indicative medium-term target of SDR 20 billion is now expected to be reached by FY18–FY19.
Keywords:
PP; income; earnings; lending income; SDR; net income; SDR exchange rate; expense projection; about SDR; income-expenditure position; gold endowment income; Personal income; Gold; SDR interest rate; Budget planning and preparation; Reserve positions; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Chile: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
The Selected Issues paper discusses external shocks and its effects on Chile. The economy of Chile is susceptible to global financial predicaments, external demands, and commodity rates. This paper reports on financial spillovers from 2008–12, its methodologies, and the pressures on bank funding markets. The paper also examines performance of nonfinancial sector during the 2008–09 crisis. The Executive Board sees the document as an analytical description of Chile in the global scene.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; firm; Chile; bank; price; copper price; summary statistics; utilities firm; financing needs; firm performance; Metal prices; Interbank markets; Yield curve; Credit risk; Government liabilities; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Zambia: First and Second Reviews of the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Augmentation of Access: Staff Report; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director of Zambia
International Monetary Fund
Zambia’s nonperforming loans are expected to increase and banks have become more cautious in their lending. The staff report for the Zambia’s first and second reviews of the Three-Year Arrangement under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility and request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Augmentation of Access is examined. The slowdown in external demand and uncertainty about the global outlook have negatively affected growth prospects and the balance of payments, and made the program targets for reserve accumulation unattainable.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; growth facility; Three-Year arrangement; Three-Year; request; nonobservance; program implementation; growth performance; sector strategy; International reserves; Inflation; Metal prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the Ukrainian business cycle. It focuses on the price of steel—Ukraine’s major export—and its relation to the economic performance. It establishes a forecasting model for steel prices, which points to downside risks to steel prices. It discusses the effects of steel price fluctuations on economic activity and how policies might then mitigate them. The paper also develops core inflation indicators for Ukraine to better distinguish underlying from temporary influences on inflation.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; core inflation indicator; government; Ukraine; steel price; output gap; support government intention; expenditure target; Inflation; Metal prices; Budget planning and preparation; Global
Cover International Monetary Fund Annual Report 1980
International Monetary Fund Annual Report 1980
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This paper reviews key findings of the IMF’s Annual Report for the fiscal year ended April 30, 1980. The report highlights that during the period from the beginning of 1979 to the middle of 1980, the world economic situation was marked by three disturbing features. Rates of inflation in most countries remained high and, indeed, accelerated. Growth of real output in the industrial countries began to slow down markedly, threatening to halt the expansion of world trade. Large surpluses and deficits reemerged in the external balances on current account for major groups of countries.

Keywords:
AR; AREA; sc; Fed. rep.; expense; SDR equivalent; Dem. rep.; net valuation adjustment loss; personnel expenses; totaled SDR; deduction of SDR; Exchange rates; Gold; Currencies; Extra-budgetary funds; Oil exports; Africa; Global; Western Hemisphere; Middle East; Asia and Pacific; oil developing countries; deutsche mark; pound sterling; terms of trade; SDR value; Inflation; International reserves