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International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This paper presents Cyprus’ technical assistance report on strengthening the governance and oversight of state-owned enterprises (SOE). Cyprus' government has implemented measures to enhance financial oversight and strengthen the governance of SOEs over several years. The ongoing reforms have already yielded positive results. Additional measures are needed to strengthen SOEs corporate governance and accountability practices. Establishing and regularly updating a consolidated inventory of public entities is essential to ensure SOE accountability. Good SOE governance requires a coordinated and sequential approach to reforms. Coordination among various stakeholders and decision makers is paramount and calls for developing and publishing a reform strategy with benchmarks to track progress. A SOE ownership policy should also be developed. This policy could outline the state's ownership rationale and define the roles and responsibilities of the institutions involved in SOE oversight and governance to provide clarity on the objectives and guidelines for effective ownership and management of SOEs. The policy should set clear accountability lines of respective agencies involved in the SOE ownership, governance, and oversight process. Their responsibilities would depend on the chosen ownership model the government will decide.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Economic activity has rebounded strongly on the back of waning COVID-19 infections and expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. However, strong import growth—fueled by the macroeconomic policy mix, higher international commodity prices, and credit growth—have led to a marked deterioration of the external position. The current account deficit has widened, the rupee depreciated markedly, and inflation remains persistently high.
Vybhavi Balasundharam
,
Ms. Leni Hunter
,
Iulai Lavea
, and
Mr. Paul G Seeds
Pacific island countries (PICs) rely on national airlines for connectivity, trade, and tourism. These airlines are being struck hard by COVID-19. Losses will weigh on public sector balance sheets and pose risks to economic recovery. With a backdrop of tight fiscal space and increasing government debt, losses in airlines are adding to fiscal risks in some PICs. This paper discusses tools to evaluate and manage the fiscal risks from national airlines in the Pacific. We present a snapshot of the current state of Public Financial Management (PFM) practices in PICs and detail the best practices. This exercise would illustrate the areas in which PICs have scope to improve their risk management with regard to national airlines. We then discuss the use of diagnostic tools and capacity development to enhance monitoring and risk management. Greater transparency and accountability in the airlines, combined with rigorous oversight, would be the first step towards improved financial management of national airlines.
Ms. Anja Baum
,
Mr. Paulo A Medas
,
Alberto Soler
, and
Mouhamadou Sy
Ensuring that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are efficient and managed prudently is important for economic and social reasons. It is also crucial to contain fiscal risks and reduce the burden on taxpayers from recurrent and large bailouts. Governments need to develop stronger capacity to monitor and mitigate the risks from SOEs. We present a risk tool to benchmark the performance of SOEs relative to their peers and assess their vulnerabilities, including through stress tests. A strategy to mitigate risks requires the right incentives for managers to perform and for government agencies to conduct effective oversight. Incorporating SOEs in overall fiscal targets would promote greater fiscal discipline and transparency.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the macroeconomic outlook for Tuvalu is stable. Real GDP growth in 2015 is estimated at 2.6 percent and is projected to rise to 4 percent in 2016 owing to several large infrastructure projects and recovery spending following Cyclone Pam. Inflation remained steady in 2015 at 3.2 percent. The fiscal position is expected to turn into a small deficit in 2016 and is projected to remain in deficit over the medium term. Risks to the outlook relate to the effects of climate change, volatility in fishing revenues, and volatile global financial conditions, which could affect distributions to the budget from the Tuvalu Trust Fund.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Reform of the SOE sector is a high priority for the government. The recently published “National Strategy 2020” promises “state property management reform,” and related reforms in areas such as the organization of government agencies, public procurement, competition policy, and corporate regulation. Reform of the SOE sector also features prominently in the government’s 2014 Coalition Agreement. High levels of direct and indirect state support is adding to the significant fiscal risks emanating from SOE sector, a problem that is being exacerbated by the severe economic situation. In addition, weaknesses in the management of the state’s investment portfolio need to be addressed to help to significantly increase the value of the government’s portfolio of state assets. This will only be possible through improved oversight and governance of the SOE sector.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This paper discusses various public finance management reforms required for state-owned enterprises (SOEs), which is high priority of the government. High levels of direct and indirect state support are adding to the significant risks emanating from the SOE sector, a problem that is being exacerbated by the severe economic situation. There is a need to establish proper corporate governance arrangements through improving performance management frameworks and making SEOs accountable for poor performance, and reinforcing financial and fiscal discipline. Establishing independent Boards of Directors to perform stewardship and oversight function for public sector entities and improving transparency and reporting to the parliament and general public should form the cornerstone of the reform strategy for all SEOs.
Mr. Paolo Mauro
,
Mr. Herve Joly
,
Mr. Ari Aisen
,
Mr. Emre Alper
,
Mr. Francois Boutin-Dufresne
,
Mr. Jemma Dridi
,
Mr. Nikoloz Gigineishvili
,
Mr. Tom Josephs
,
Ms. Clara Mira
,
Mr. Vimal V Thakoor
,
Mr. Alun H. Thomas
, and
Mr. Fan Yang
This paper takes stock of the main fiscal risks facing the EAC partner countries. These include macroeconomic shocks, and specific risks, such as the financial performance of the public enterprises, large infrastructure projects, PPPs, and pension funds. In addition, weaknesses in the institutional framework are reviewed. This analysis highlights some of the largest risks and begins to give a sense of the potential magnitudes involved.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
KEY ISSUES Background. The Gambian economy is facing urgent balance of payments needs triggered mostly by the impact of the regional Ebola outbreak on tourism. Although the country remains Ebola free, the regional outbreak is expected to cut by more than half tourism receipts for the 2014/15 season. During 2014?15, the impact of the shocks on the balance of payments, offset in part by lower global fuel prices, is estimated to be $40 million (over 5 percent of 2015 GDP). Policy slippages and persistent financial difficulties in public enterprises have exacerbated the problems and pushed The Gambia’s ECF arrangement off track. In their Letter of Intent the authorities have notified the Fund of their decision to cancel the arrangement. Request. The authorities are requesting support under the RCF—in an amount of SDR 7.775 million or equivalent to 25 percent of quota—to cope with the urgent balance of payments needs and a one-year staff-monitored program (SMP) to guide policy implementation before returning to a successor ECF arrangement, provided policies remain on track. Main policy commitments. The authorities have taken a number of upfront policy actions. The approved 2015 budget envisages lowering net domestic borrowing (NDB) to 1 percent of GDP in 2015 from 12¼ percent in 2014, anchored by a set of revenue and expenditure measures, and complemented by some $22 million in external budget support. The authorities have taken steps to resolve the financial problems of key public enterprises and intend to take measures to secure their medium-term fiscal consolidation and poverty reduction objectives. Staff’s view. Staff supports the authorities’ request. Staff views the package of measures articulated in the attached letter of intent as representing a considerable effort. The RCF disbursement would augment the authorities’ own strong adjustment efforts, help catalyze additional donor financing, and give the authorities the time needed to develop their medium-term adjustment plans. The SMP will provide the Gambian authorities an opportunity to establish a track record before moving to a successor ECF to which they aspire. A period of monitoring will also allow the time needed to assess the impact of the shocks fully and hence better tailor the objectives of a successor ECF arrangement.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Context and policy challenges. Mozambique’s macroeconomic performance remains robust, with strong growth and low inflation. In spite of the heightened risks from an uncertain global outlook, growth is expected to be broad-based in the medium term and boosted by the natural resource boom and infrastructure investment. Short-term policy framework. The main short-term challenge is to maintain the growth momentum while preserving fiscal and debt sustainability. The 2014 fiscal stance is expansionary, and fiscal consolidation needs to be initiated in the 2015 budget to restore prudent fiscal management. While low international prices have dampened inflation, the Bank of Mozambique should stay vigilant and adhere to its medium-term inflation target. Key structural reform priorities include improving VAT and overall tax administration, continuing public financial management reforms, strengthening capacity for transparent public investment management and borrowing, and enhancing the business environment and financial sector development. Completion of the LNG contract negotiations is a critical milestone for the launch of this project, one of the largest in sub-Saharan Africa. Medium-term reforms. Fiscal adjustment over the medium term will be essential to preserve debt sustainability and macroeconomic stability. This requires measures to contain current spending pressures while bringing investment to a more sustainable level. Structural reforms focusing on public financial management, monetary policy tools and banking supervision, and business facilitation should be implemented vigorously to sustain growth and render it more inclusive. With foreign aid likely to decline over the medium term, increased borrowing can provide additional resources for improving both Mozambique’s physical infrastructure and human capital. To ensure the efficiency of investment and borrowing, further strengthening of investment planning and implementation, and debt management are essential.