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Business and Economics > Budgeting

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Fifth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Waivers of Applicability of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criterion, Rephasing of Access, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents Ukraine’s Fifth Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Requests for Waivers of Applicability of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criterion, Rephasing of Access, and Financing Assurances Review. Ukraine’s economy remains resilient, and performance remains strong under the EFF despite challenging conditions. The authorities met all end-June quantitative performance criteria and completed four structural benchmarks. Looking ahead, the recovery is expected to slow amid headwinds from the impact of the attacks on energy infrastructure and the continuing war, while risks to the outlook remain exceptionally high. Preparedness is necessary to enable appropriate policy action should risks materialize. Continued exchange rate flexibility under the managed exchange rate regime will help strengthen the resilience of the economy to external shocks. Sustained reform momentum, domestic revenue mobilization, and timely disbursement of external support are necessary to safeguard macroeconomic stability, restore fiscal and debt sustainability, and enhance institutional reforms.
Keywords:
downside Scenario financing gap; IMF staff estimate; C. financing Needs; budget financing needs; baseline scenario financing gap; authorities' intention; Debt sustainability; Budget planning and preparation; Sovereign bonds; International reserves; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Fourth Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Modifications of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper discusses Ukraine’s Fourth Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Request for Modification of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review. Ukraine’s performance remains strong under the EFF despite challenging conditions. All quantitative performance criteria for end-March were met, and all structural benchmarks through end-June were implemented on time or with a short delay. The Ukrainian economy continues to be resilient although the outlook remains subject to exceptionally high uncertainty. Sustained reform momentum and timely disbursement of external support are necessary to safeguard macroeconomic stability, restore fiscal and debt sustainability, and enhance institutional reforms to lay the path to European Union accession. Timely and predictable external disbursements together with strong domestic resource mobilization and careful liquidity management are necessary for Ukraine to meet its financing needs. Fiscal policies for the remainder of 2024, together with preparation for the 2025 budget, should be underpinned by steadfast revenue mobilization efforts aligned with the National Revenue Strategy.
Keywords:
ESBU head; ESBU law; staff appraisal; ESBU's role; investigative power; Budget planning and preparation; Financial sector stability; International reserves; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Policy Multipliers in Japan Under QQE
Sam Ouliaris
and
Celine Rochon
This paper tests whether Japan's key macro policy multipliers have declined since 2013, the year that Japan introduced Qualitative and Quantitative Easing. We use the augmented Blanchard-Perotti structural VAR model introduced in Ouliaris and Rochon (2021) to study the dynamic effects of shocks in the central bank’s asset holdings, interest rates, and debt levels relative to GDP on economic activity in Japan. We find that both the expenditure and tax multipliers of Japan have fallen, implying that the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Japan declined following the change in monetary policy. Moreover, we find that the efficacy of quantitative easing is small, implying the need for huge interventions to have a significant effect on real GDP, and that the effectiveness of quantitative easing has declined since 2013. We argue that the reduction in policy multipliers can be attributed to the upward trend in the government debt level relative to GDP which, despite historically low interest rates, has increased Japan’s structural deficit, and the likelihood of reduced expenditures and higher taxes going forward.
Keywords:
fiscal multipliers; structural VAR; policy multiplier; debt multiplier; tax multiplier; effectiveness of quantitative easing; QQE multiplier; Tax expenditures; Real interest rates; Central bank balance sheet
Cover Policy Papers
Review of The Fund’s Capacity Development Strategy—Background Papers
International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development
This supplement includes five background papers and provides background information on various aspects of capacity development (CD) for the main Board paper, Review of the Fund’s Capacity Development Strategy—Towards a More Flexible, Integrated, and Tailored Model. It is divided into five sections, each consisting of a different background paper. The five sections cover (1) CD Delivery Modalities; (2) Evaluation and Impact; (3) Regional Capacity Development Centers and Field Presence; (4) HR Policies; and (5) Mapping the Fund’s Position vis-à-vis Other CD Providers.
Keywords:
Capacity Development; Technical Assistance; Training; Institution; Priorities; Evaluation; Impact; Field Presence; Regional Capacity Development Training Center; CD Strategy Review; CD department; CD provider; delivery modality; CD staffing model; RCDC CD Delivery; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Comparative advantage; Training and development in revenue administration; Global; South America; Asia and Pacific; Sub-Saharan Africa; Maghreb
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Third Review of the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, and Modifications of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents Ukraine’s Third Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, and Modifications of Performance Criteria. The EFF continues to provide a strong anchor for the authorities’ economic program, which has remained on track despite extremely challenging circumstances due to Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. The authorities also met all structural benchmarks through end-February, underscoring their continuing commitment to an ambitious reform agenda. The Board approved the authorities’ request for a waiver for nonobservance of the December performance criterion on tax revenues, which was missed by a minor amount. The ongoing war continues to strain Ukraine’s public finances. External disbursements on appropriate concessional terms, together with strong domestic resource mobilization are necessary for Ukraine to meet its financing needs and secure fiscal and debt sustainability. Stronger revenue mobilization, underpinned by the recently approved National Revenue Strategy, while avoiding measures that erode the tax base, will be critical to secure fiscal sustainability.
Keywords:
budget financing needs; support program; General government finance; FX cash market stability support; baseline financing gap; inflation moderate; budget support grant; SOE state ownership Policy; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal risks; International reserves; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: 2023 Article IV Consultation, Second Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, and Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria and a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents Ukraine’s 2023 Article IV Consultation, Second Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), and Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria and a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion. The authorities have made strong progress toward their EFF commitments under challenging conditions, meeting all applicable quantitative performance criteria through end-June and indicative targets through end-September and the majority of structural benchmarks through end-October. The Ukrainian economy continues to show remarkable resilience, although the outlook remains subject to exceptionally high war-related uncertainty. Continued strong ownership and reform momentum—including domestic revenue mobilization combined with timely and predictable external financing—are necessary to safeguard macroeconomic stability, enhance institutional reforms, and support reconstruction efforts, while facilitating a green recovery on the path to EU accession. Well-managed post-war reconstruction coupled with decisive reforms in the context of the path to EU accession could stimulate the return of migrants and investment flows needed for a sustained, resilient and green recovery, bolstering Ukraine’s broader development goals.
Keywords:
government support program; HQ-led STX; budget financing needs; EU accession; NBU securities; path to EU accession; baseline financing gap; a number of credit risk assessment requirement; state guarantee; Budget planning and preparation; Exchange rate arrangements; Global
Cover International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2023
International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2023
Committed to Collaboration
International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department

Abstract

The 2023 IMF Annual Report highlights the IMF’s work to support its members to address successive shocks, including Russia’s war on Ukraine, inflation, debt vulnerabilities, inequality food insecurity, geoeconomic fragmentation, climate change, and digitalization. In FY 2023, the Fund continued to support its members in our three core areas: 1) Economic surveillance: 126 country health checks completed.2) Lending: $74 billion to 36 countries, including about $11 billion to 21 low-income countries, for a total of $294 billion to 96 countries since the start of the pandemic. 3) Capacity development: $337 million for hands-on technical advice, policy-oriented training, and peer learning. The report is also available in Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Japanese, Portuguese, Russian, and Spanish. Note: The 2023 IMF Annual Report covers the activities of the Executive Board and IMF management and staff during the financial year May 1, 2022, through April 30, 2023, and in some cases more recently. Background: The Annual Report website includes the IMF’s financial statements for FY 2023 and other background documentation. The Annual Report and the financial statements are also available online at www.imfbookstore.org or www.elibrary.IMF.org

Keywords:
inflation; debt vulnerabilities; inequality; food insecurity; geoeconomic fragmentation; climate change; digitalization; capacity development; lending; economic surveillance; Deputy managing director; IMF organization chart; boards of governors of the bank; Joint Ministerial Committee of the boards of governors; IMF photo; upper-credit-tranche IMF financing; IMF secretariat; IMF CPI database; IMF liquidity support; full-fedged IMF program; IMF surveillance activity; Training and development in revenue administration; Budget planning and preparation; External audit; Balance of payments need; Global; Asia and Pacific; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Lao People’s Democratic Republic: Technical Assistance Report-Government Finance Statistics and Public Sector Debt Statistics
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This technical assistance (TA) report on government finance statistics (GFS) covers the remote TA to the Ministry of Finance (MOF) during September 21–October 2 and December 14–18, 2020 and March 9–13 and April 19–23, 2021 (which was extended to May 2021). These peripatetic activities were conducted remotely due to the travel restrictions resulting from the COVID-19 situation. This report documents the main achievements from these activities. These activities were part of the GFS and Public Sector Debt Statistics (PSDS) project funded by the Government of Japan (JSA3) and implemented by the IMF Statistics Department (STA) and the IMF Capacity Development Office in Thailand (CDOT).
Keywords:
MOF website; IMF capacity development office; IMF's Statistics Department; MOF staff; government finance information system; TA for April; Government finance statistics; COVID-19; Budget planning and preparation; Data collection; Budget execution and treasury management
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Arab Republic of Egypt: First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Monetary Policy Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Arab Republic of Egypt
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The growth impact of the COVID-19 crisis has so far been less severe than expected, as strong consumption helped offset weak tourism and investment. Measures taken to address the health and social needs and support the sectors most directly affected by the crisis appear to have helped mitigate the impact of the shock. External market conditions have improved with a strong return of portfolio inflows since the approval of the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA).
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; consumer price index inflation; consumer price inflation; internal audit mechanism; expenditure control process; inflation expectation
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Arab Republic of Egypt: Request for a 12-Month Stand-By Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Arab Republic of Egypt
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Egypt’s hard-won macroeconomic stability achieved during the three-year arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) now faces a significant disruption due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Growth is expected to slow in both FY2019/20 and FY2020/21 as tourism has been halted and domestic activity curtailed. The external accounts have come under pressure due to capital outflows and the shock to tourism and remittances. The authorities responded with a broad package to scale up the health system’s capacity and policies to support the people and the economy.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; staff's appraisal; safeguards assessment of the Central Bank of Egypt; draft bill; update to the safeguards assessment; government priority; Debt service; Credit; Global; COVID-19