Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Countries

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Business and Economics > Budgeting

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 18 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Economic Performance Index (EPI): an Intuitive Indicator for Assessing a Country's Economic Performance Dynamics in an Historical Perspective
Mr. Vadim Khramov
and
Mr. John Ridings Lee
Existing economic indicators and indexes assess economic activity but no single indicator measures the general macro-economic performance of a nation, state, or region in a methodologically simple and intuitive way. This paper proposes a simple, yet informative metric called the Economic Performance Index (EPI). The EPI represents a step toward clarity, by combining data on inflation, unemployment, government deficit, and GDP growth into a single indicator. In contrast to other indexes, the EPI does not use complicated mathematical procedures but was designed for simplicity, making it easier for professionals and laypeople alike to understand and apply to the economy. To maximize ease of understanding, we adopt a descriptive grading system. In addition to a Raw EPI that gives equal weights to its components, we construct a Weighted EPI and show that both indexes perform similarly for U.S. data. To demonstrate the validity of the EPI, we conduct a review of U.S. history from 1790 to 2012. We show that the EPI reflects the major events in U.S. history, including wars, periods of economic prosperity and booms, along with economic depressions, recessions, and even panics. Furthermore, the EPI not only captures official recessions over the past century but also allows for measuring and comparing their relative severity. Even though the EPI is simple by its construction, we show that its dynamics are similar to those of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI).
Keywords:
WP; inflation rate; economic index; EPI score; economic system; Indicator; Economic Performance; Raw EPI; EPI indicator; Government debt management; Budget planning and preparation; Inflation; Unemployment rate; Economic recession; Europe
Cover Policy Papers
Middle East and North Africa - Economic Outlook and Key Challenges - Deauville Partnership Ministerial Meeting
International Monetary Fund
Historic transitions in the Arab Spring countries are coming under increasing strain frommacroeconomic pressures and unmet social demands. Domestic uncertainty over the countries' future course, compounded by the global slowdown and rising oil prices, took a toll on growth during 2011. The outlook for 2012 and 2013 is equally challenging. The protracted political transition, lower global growth, and euro zone weakness are likely to result in a slow and drawn-out economic recovery, with unemployment at best stabilizing at high levels. Maintaining macroeconomic stability in this environment will be challenging, not least since policy buffers were reduced during 2011. Indeed, gross external and fiscal financing needs of MENA oilimporters are projected at about $93 and $103 billion, respectively, in 2012-13. With capital markets expected to provide only a small part of these funds, official financial support will be essential to allow countries to continue on their path toward economic transformation. But at the same time, countries need to make tangible progress on that path. This requires bold reform and modernization agendas that command broad consensus and are embedded in a sustainable medium-term macroeconomic policy framework to build confidence, anchor expectations, and pave the way for sustained and inclusive growth.
Keywords:
PP; job creation; economic recovery; labor market; central bank; economic activity; exchange rate; GDP growth; Government debt management; Current account deficits; Budget planning and preparation; Unemployment; Global; Europe; Middle East
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands: Netherlands: 2009 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Staff Statement; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Kingdom of the Netherlands: Netherlands
International Monetary Fund
The staff report for the Netherlands’ 2009 Article IV Consultation describes the economic developments and policies. State interventions in the financial sector have been broadly appropriate and consistent with a sound fix-it-and-exit approach. Measures have included capital injections, nationalization, and government guarantees. Although systemic risks have been addressed effectively and risk-weighted capital ratios are above required minima, building up equity to levels deemed more adequate in regulatory reform proposals and brisker lending to support the economic recovery may require banks to tap considerable extra capital.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; harmonized inflation; Aegon; Netherlands; projection; staff appraisal; capital injection; IMF's view; old-age-care reform; Financial sector; Fiscal sustainability; Fiscal stance; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Can Budget Institutions Counteract Political Indiscipline?
Mr. Ashoka Mody
and
Ms. Stefania Fabrizio
The budget is an expression of political rather than economic priorities. We confirm this proposition for a group of new and potential members of the European Union, finding that politics dominates. The contemporary practice of democracy can increase budget deficits through not only ideological preferences but also more fragmented government coalitions and higher voter participation. Long-term structural forces, triggered by societal divisions and representative electoral rules, have more ambiguous implications but also appear to increase budget pressures, as others have also found. However, our most robust, and hopeful, finding is that budget institutions-mechanisms and rules of the budget process-that create checks and balances have significant value even when the politics is representative but undisciplined, and when long-term structural forces are unfavorable.
Keywords:
WP; finance minister; least squares; government fragmentation; institutions index; political economy; Fiscal policy; budget institutions; electoral rules; government ideology; ethnic fractionalization; voter turnover; General government expenditure; coalitional government; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal stance; Unemployment rate; Central and Eastern Europe; Baltics; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
France: Staff Report for the 2005 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund
This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that the cyclical recovery of the French economy was interrupted in the first half of 2005, as previously strong domestic demand faltered and the external sector continued to exert a drag on growth. In 2004, growth was faster and more consumption-driven than in other large euro area countries. Employment growth in hours, increases in minimum wages, and some fiscal measures supported private household incomes. The 2006 draft budget targets a reduction in the general government deficit to 2.9 percent of GDP.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; spending; authority; price distortion; scenario; director; structural adjustment; headline inflation; GDP deflator; product market; job creation; product market reform; Labor markets; Employment; Unemployment; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ireland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper for Ireland highlights that fiscal consolidation resulted in a tremendous reduction in public debt from nearly 100 percent of GDP in 1991 to about 30 percent in 2004. This has reflected a combination of policy decisions and economic circumstances. Excluding 2001, when the economy has been affected by the global economic slowdown, Ireland has in general consistently enjoyed favorable surprises in its public finances. Indeed, during this period, the actual fiscal outturns have exceeded budget forecasts on average by 0.3 percent of GDP a year.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Ireland; rate; labor market; revenue; saving rate; replacement rate; median saving ratio; growth prospect; household savings; mean error; incentive account; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Income; Unemployment; Aging; Budget planning and preparation; Europe; Australia and New Zealand; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Poland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes fiscal developments and the sustainability of the current fiscal stance in Poland. It analyzes fiscal risks and fiscal vulnerability by investigating the contingent liabilities of the government and by performing stress tests to gauge the exposure of the budget to fiscal risks. Using different approaches, the paper tries to determine the size of fiscal adjustment Poland needs to undertake to strengthen the fiscal position and to reduce exposure to fiscal risks to a more manageable level.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; deficit; headline deficit; state budget; treasury guarantee; structural adjustment; deficit measure; borrowing requirement; take-home pay; elasticity in Poland; public finance entity; B. fiscal policy stance; Unemployment rate; Unemployment; Wages; Employment; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Germany: Staff Report for the 2002 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund
This 2002 Article IV Consultation highlights that Germany’s economy is poised for a fragile recovery, after having barely grown since mid-2000. The earlier price shocks and interest rate hikes that contributed to the current slowdown have now unwound. However, sluggish global growth, stock market declines, weak credit growth, and the withdrawal implied by planned fiscal consolidation may stand in the way of a strong recovery. Real GDP growth in 2002 is estimated at about 0.5 percent, with the general government deficit set to exceed 3 percent of GDP.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; authorities intention; deficit; wage; IMF staff projection; growth projection; increase incentive; expectations component; ZEW sentiment indicator; German authorities; Labor markets; Wages; Unemployment; Global; Middle East
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Sweden: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper on Sweden analyzes possible adjustments to the fiscal framework that the authorities may wish to consider. The paper starts with a brief description of Sweden’s fiscal framework, followed by an assessment of the framework’s strengths and weaknesses. The scope for stabilization policy in Sweden is analyzed. The paper describes the Johansson commission’s recommendations and puts forth alternative options. A strategy that would entail marginal adjustments to the framework is also proposed.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; sick leave; sickness benefit; disability retirement; sickness; sick leave compensation; expenditure ceiling; sickness compensation system; surplus target; sickness absence behavior; Automatic stabilizers; Output gap; Budget planning and preparation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Poland: Staff Report for the 2001 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund
Poland's outstanding economic performance has come under strain. Executive Directors stressed the need to strengthen fiscal and monetary policies, and accelerate structural reforms. They considered that the new strategy will strengthen the medium-term economic performance, and place Poland in a strong position to secure accession to the European Union. They commended the soundness of the financial system as reported in the Financial Sector Stability Assessment, and agreed that the country's statistical base is adequate for surveillance.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; deficit; January data; inflation expectation; January; producer price inflation; consumer price inflation; headline inflation; Inflation; Current account deficits; Unemployment; Western Europe