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International Monetary Fund
This supplement presents case studies of seven fiscal councils and examines how each council performs its core functions and if and how it impacts on the fiscal policy debate. The seven fiscal councils are: Belgium (Conseil Supérieur des Finances—HCF), Canada (Parliamentary Budget Officer—PBO), Hungary (Költségvetési Tanács), Korea (National Assembly Budget Office—NABO), the Netherlands (Centraal Planbureau—CPB), Sweden (Finanspolitiska rådet), and the United States (Congressional Budget Office-CBO). The main paper presents the comparative lessons and the general findings of this study based on a systematic comparison of these fiscal councils’ experiences. This supplement discusses in detail each individual fiscal council’s experiences.
Mauricio Soto
,
Frank Eich
, and
Mr. Benedict J. Clements
Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.
International Monetary Fund
This paper focuses on the Stand-By Arrangement for Hungary under the Emergency Financing Mechanism. Economic indicators confirm that the downturn envisaged in the program is already under way. The new bank support law is important, as it provides Hungarian banks with access to capital enhancement and borrowing guarantee facilities. The gradual reductions in the policy interest rate have been appropriate. Looking ahead, continued implementation of policies in line with the program is essential to maintain investor confidence and minimize the depth of the economic downturn.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper on Hungary reports that the public enterprises may pose significant fiscal risks on account of their quasi-fiscal activities and contingent liabilities. More than 85 percent of the economy is in private hands. According to the Privatization Act, assets may remain in long-term state ownership if they belong to a national public utility provider or are considered to be of strategic importance for the national economy or defense. Capital-intensive and labor-intensive enterprises remain as state property.
International Monetary Fund
The staff report for the 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights the Slovak Republic’s macroeconomic outlook and policy discussions. The National Bank of Slovakia (NBS) has been following a hybrid monetary framework focused on restraining inflation and on maintaining the exchange rate within the Exchange Rate Mechanism 2 (ERM2) requirements. Executive Directors encouraged the NBS to conduct its policy, and its communications with market participants. They also stressed the importance of ensuring that the labor code amendments under consideration would not raise labor costs and reduce labor market flexibility.
Robert Sierhej
and
Mr. Christoph B. Rosenberg
Drawing on a dataset suitable for macroeconomic analysis, the paper provides an overview of the magnitudes, purpose and institutional implications of EU-related transfers to and from the new member states. A rough analysis of accounting identities and first-round effects shows that EU funds may have led to a fiscal drag of up to 1 percent of GDP and an additional aggregate demand stimulus of up to 1 percent of GDP during the first years of membership. These effects are likely to increase as additional funding become available under the new financial perspective, pointing to the need to consider policy tradeoffs.
International Monetary Fund
This report provides an assessment of fiscal transparency practices in Hungary in relation to the requirements of the IMF Code of Good Practices on Fiscal Transparency. The report reveals that Hungary has increased its level of transparency in a number of areas since the last fiscal Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes in 2001. In particular, the coverage of fiscal reporting and the budget has been considerably extended. Fiscal reporting now covers virtually all of general government.
Mr. Ashoka Mody
and
Ms. Stefania Fabrizio
The budget is an expression of political rather than economic priorities. We confirm this proposition for a group of new and potential members of the European Union, finding that politics dominates. The contemporary practice of democracy can increase budget deficits through not only ideological preferences but also more fragmented government coalitions and higher voter participation. Long-term structural forces, triggered by societal divisions and representative electoral rules, have more ambiguous implications but also appear to increase budget pressures, as others have also found. However, our most robust, and hopeful, finding is that budget institutions-mechanisms and rules of the budget process-that create checks and balances have significant value even when the politics is representative but undisciplined, and when long-term structural forces are unfavorable.
International Monetary Fund
The Slovak Republic’s 2005 Article IV Consultation reports that sound macroeconomic management and a wide range of fundamental structural reforms are supporting nominal convergence with European Union norms. Real GDP growth accelerated to 6 percent in 2005, driven by an improvement in the contribution of net foreign demand while domestic demand growth maintained momentum. The external current account deficit doubled to about 7¼ percent of GDP, owing to a deterioration in the terms of trade and higher reinvested earnings on foreign investment.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper evaluates Hungary’s growth and current account performance by using a simple empirical model that provides benchmarks to measure GDP growth rates and current account deficits. The cross-country analysis suggests that in general, larger current account deficits are associated with faster income convergence. The model’s benchmark for Hungary suggests that its current account deficit has been larger than would be expected based on the income convergence process. The paper describes the motivation for, and specifics of, the modeling strategy, and the data used in the analysis.