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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Joint Staff Advisory Note (JSAN) reviews the first Annual Progress Report (APR) on Somalia’s Ninth National Development Plan (NDP9). NDP9 is a nationally owned and comprehensive strategy for poverty reduction and inclusive growth. It covers 2020–2024 and is organized around the four pillars: Inclusive Politics, Security and the Rule of Law, Economic Development and Social Development. Somalia began implementing NDP9 at a time of profound challenges posed by the ‘triple crises’ of locust infestations, a global pandemic, and floods. An outbreak of desert locusts started in 2019 that threatened the food supply across the Horn of Africa. In 2020, the world was hit by the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. The IMF Staff concur with the APR’s assessment that important progress has been made on implementation of the NPD9, despite challenges from the triple shocks faced by Somalia in 2020. Notwithstanding the multiple shocks, the Somali authorities preserved macroeconomic stability and maintained the reform momentum, strengthening domestic revenue mobilization, public financial management, financial sector regulation and supervision, statistics and governance.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Joint Staff Advisory Note on the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper discusses that Somalia has made noteworthy progress since 2012 to recover from decades of conflict and state fragmentation. The country has succeeded in rebuilding core state capabilities and organized two democratic national elections in 2012 and 2017. Somalia has now reached the stage where it seeks to fully reengage the international community and is requesting debt relief through the heavily indebted poor countries initiative. The authorities developed the Ninth National Development Plan (NPD9) through a highly consultative, participatory process that ensured full country ownership. The macroeconomic policy objectives of NDP9 are to promote economic growth in an environment of low inflation, sustainable fiscal and current account balances, and healthy foreign exchange reserves. The IMF staff recommends updating framework to incorporate greater support for poverty reduction and additional financing from development partners during the interim period. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ commitment to issuing new Somali shilling banknotes, while maintaining de facto dollarization.
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

This paper discusses that the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) has also launched three new evaluations—which will analyze the IMF’s role on fragile states, its financial surveillance activities, and its advice on unconventional monetary policies—and two evaluation updates—which will look into the IMF’s exchange rate policy advice and structural conditionality. The evaluation found that, for the most part, the IMF’s euro area surveillance identified the right issues during the pre-crisis period but did not foresee the magnitude of the risks that would later become paramount. The IMF’s surveillance of the financial regulatory architecture was generally of high quality, but staff, along with most other experts, missed the buildup of banking system risks in some countries. The report found several issues with the way decision making was managed by the IMF. In May 2010, the IMF Executive Board approved a decision to provide exceptional access financing to Greece without seeking preemptive debt restructuring, even though its sovereign debt was not deemed sustainable with a high probability.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Ce rapport pour les consultations de 2014 au titre de l'article IV indique que dans l’ensemble, les résultats macroéconomiques du Niger ont été globalement satisfaisants. Après le ralentissement économique enregistré en 2013 en raison de la situation sécuritaire dans la région et des conditions climatiques défavorables, la croissance a rebondi en 2014. L’inflation a été maîtrisée en partie grâce aux efforts consentis par le gouvernement pour améliorer la sécurité alimentaire et le fonctionnement des marchés. Cependant, le programme a affiché des résultats mitigés, l’effet conjugué de dépenses sécuritaires et alimentaires imprévues et d’un déficit de financement extérieur ayant mis à mal la gestion budgétaire. À court terme, pour assurer la viabilité des finances publiques, il est essentiel de maîtriser le déficit budgétaire, grâce à des mesures destinées à améliorer la politique et l’administration fiscales, à réformer l’administration douanière et à réduire les exonérations.
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

The twelfth Annual Report of the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) describes activities during financial year 2015 (May 1, 2014–April 30, 2015). During the financial year, the IEO completed an evaluation of the IMF response to the global financial and economic crisis. It also issued two reports updating three past evaluations: The IMF’s Approach to Capital Account Liberalization: Revisiting the 2005 IEO Evaluation; and Revisiting the IEO Evaluations of the IMF’s Role in Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSP) and the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) (2004) and the IEO Evaluation of IMF and Aid to Sub-Saharan Africa (2007). In addition, the Executive Board discussed the IEO evaluation of Recurring Issues from a Decade of Evaluation: Lessons for the IMF, which was issued to the Board in FY2014. The paper reports on the IEO budget and outreach efforts in the financial year. This paper also summarizes the evaluations on Recurring Issues and the IMF Response to the Financial and Economic Crisis, the Board discussions of these evaluations, and the two updates of past evaluations. It also discusses follow-up on IEO evaluations and addresses ongoing evaluations and the IEO work program going forward. A table lists the IEO evaluations and evaluation updates completed or in progress.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Joint Staff Advisory Note discusses progress in implementing Chad’s National Development Plan (NDP) in 2013. The NDP was overall satisfactorily implemented in 2013. By end 2013, about two-thirds of strategic indicators and one-half of intermediary indicators retained in the results framework did record progress in line with retained targets. In addition, the contribution of the 2013 national budget to the NDP implementation was close to initial plans, reflecting structural progress in terms of budget execution. The adoption of a robust Results Framework also allowed the authorities to effectively monitor NDP implementation, in terms of inputs, outputs, and outcomes.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Niger’s overall macroeconomic performance has been broadly satisfactory. After the economic slowdown in 2013 owing to the regional security situation and adverse climatic conditions, economic growth has rebounded in 2014. Inflation has been contained, in part owing to the government’s efforts to improve food security and the functioning of food markets. However, program performance has been mixed, as a combination of unexpected security and food expenditures and a shortfall in external financing have strained fiscal management. In the near term, containing the fiscal deficit through measures to improve tax policy and administration, reform customs administration, and reduce exemptions is essential to ensure sustainability.
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

The 2014 Annual Report of the Independent Evaluation Office of the International Monetary Fund.

International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

The Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) evaluation on International Reserves: IMF Concerns and Country Perspectives was discussed by the Board in December 2012. This evaluation examined the IMF’s analysis of the effect of reserves on the stability of the international monetary system and its advice on reserve adequacy assessments in the context of bilateral surveillance. In the multilateral context, the evaluation acknowledged the IMF’s broader work stream on the international monetary system but noted that this work had not sufficiently informed the analysis and recommendations regarding reserves. The IEO evaluation of The Role of the IMF as Trusted Advisor was discussed by the Board in February 2013. This evaluation found that perceptions of the IMF had improved, but that they varied markedly by region and country type. Recognizing that there will always be an inherent tension between the IMF’s roles as a global watchdog and as a trusted advisor to member country authorities, the evaluation report explored how the IMF could sustain the more positive image it had achieved in the aftermath of the recent global crisis. The evaluation found that among key challenges facing the IMF were improving the value added and relevance of IMF advice and overcoming the perception of a lack of even-handedness.

Mr. Kurt Annen
and
Mr. Luc Moers
This paper shows that donors that maximize relative aid impact spread their budgets across many recipient countries in a unique Nash equilibrium, explaining aid fragmentation. This equilibrium may be inefficient even without fixed costs, and the inefficiency increases in the equality of donors budgets. The paper presents empirical evidence consistent with theoretical results. These imply that, short of ending donors maximization of relative aid impact, agreements to better coordinate aid allocations are not implementable. Moreover, since policies to increase donor competition in terms of aid effectiveness risk reinforcing relativeness, they may well backfire, as any such reinforcement increases aid fragmentation.