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Business and Economics > Budgeting

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 25 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Consumption; Economics x
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Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: Technical Assistance Report-Report on National Accounts Mission (July 24–August 4, 2023)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A technical assistance mission assisted the Statistics Agency under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan (SA) in conducting a major revision of national accounts time series. Based on the results of the 2023 survey on non-observed economy (NOE) in hotels, restaurants, and other services, the 2024 major revision increases the nominal GDP for 2017–2023 in the range of 10–12 percent. The mission reviewed the results of the 2024 major revision and provided recommendations for improvement before their publication. These improvements to data and methods will improve the understanding of the Uzbekistan economy, both for domestic policymaking and international surveillance.
Keywords:
National accounts; GDP; major revision; non-observed economy.; World Bank staff; TA recipient; steering committee of CCAMTAC; SUT data; SA staff; Consumption; Agricultural commodities; Household consumption; Economic classification
Cover IMF Working Papers
Targeting Social Transfers to the Poor in Mexico
Mr. David Coady
and
Susan Parker
Mexico’s main social support program, Oportunidades, combines two methods to target cash to poor households: an initial self-selection by households who acquire knowledge about the program and apply for benefits, followed by an administrative determination of eligibility based on a means test. Self-selection improves targeting by excluding high-income households, while administrative targeting does so mainly by excluding middle-income households. The two methods are complementary: expanding program knowledge across households substantially increases applications from non-poor households, thus reinforcing the importance of administrative targeting. The paper shows that targeting can be further improved through redesigning the means test and differentiating transfers according to demographic characteristics.
Keywords:
WP; participation rate; transfer share; income distribution; program budget; random sample; share of transfer; Targeting; self selection; administrative selection; Mexico; Oportunidades; social welfare; coverage; leakage; population share; means testing; Personal income; Budget planning and preparation; Household consumption
Cover IMF Working Papers
Toward a Robust Fiscal Framework for Iceland: Motivation and Practical Suggestions
Mr. Anthony M Annett
Expenditure in Iceland, especially related to the government wage bill, has tended to move in a procyclical manner, related to the fragmentation of political decision making. Iceland's elevated macroeconomic volatility reinforces these tendencies, as large booms unleash greater fiscal pressures as well as procyclical revenue elasticities that magnify these underlying strains. To improve its fiscal framework, Iceland could look to the experience of countries like Belgium and the Netherlands. In particular, it could adopt binding nominal expenditure rules, independent forecasts, and use representative committees to lay out medium-term targets across different levels of government.
Keywords:
WP; government; wage government consumption; government fractionalization
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Hungary: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper on Hungary reports that the public enterprises may pose significant fiscal risks on account of their quasi-fiscal activities and contingent liabilities. More than 85 percent of the economy is in private hands. According to the Privatization Act, assets may remain in long-term state ownership if they belong to a national public utility provider or are considered to be of strategic importance for the national economy or defense. Capital-intensive and labor-intensive enterprises remain as state property.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Hungary; enterprise; consumption growth; budget institution; or-Sopron-Ebenfurt Co.; consumption volatility; balance-to-GDP ratio; Consumption; Budget planning and preparation; Income; Fiscal risks; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Eastern Europe; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands—Netherlands Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper for the Netherlands highlights that Dutch cost competitiveness deteriorated significantly in the years prior to 2004. The relatively poor economic performance during the new millennium contributed to these concerns generally, as did restrained export performance more specifically. The deceleration of private consumption growth started earlier than the deceleration of per capita real disposable income growth, and occurred at a time when the unemployment rate has been at a historic low and interest rates had declined.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; house price; nondurables consumption data; wealth elasticity; euro competitor; growth in the Netherlands; Housing prices; Disposable income; Consumption; Exports; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Significance of Federal Taxes as Automatic Stabilizers
Gabriel Di Bella
In this paper, a simple methodology to assess the effectiveness of automatic stabilizers is proposed and empirically tested using French data for the period 1970-2000. The paper concludes that fiscal stabilizers have dampened output variability by approximately 35 45 percent depending on the measure of potential output used. In addition, the results indicate that fiscal stabilizers mainly operated through the reduction of private investment fluctuations from 1970 to 1985, and through the reduction of private consumption variability thereafter. Due to the counterfactual nature of the analysis performed, the simplicity of the theoretical model, and simultaneity issues that might introduce biases, the results can at most be interpreted as approximations of the phenomenon that is analyzed.
Keywords:
WP; mover accent; Automatic stabilizers; fiscal policy; France; GDP fluctuation; automatic stabilizers work; consumption model; potential GDP; effect of automatic stabilizers; consumption expenditure; Private consumption; General government spending; Disposable income; Private investment; Europe
Cover Kosovo
Kosovo
Macroeconomic Issues and Fiscal Sustainability
Mr. Robert J. Corker
,
Ms. Dawn Elizabeth Rehm
, and
Ms. Kristina Kostial

Abstract

Since the end of the conflict in Kosovo-a province of Serbia in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia-in June1999, IMF staff have been providing technical assistance to help the province rebuild its economy. The assistance has focused on setting up taxation and budgetary institutions, a payments and banking system, and a statistical framework. The IMF staff has also provided general macroeconomic policy advice, especially on budget formulation, which is the main focus of this publication. The IMF’s technical assistance has been carefully coordinated with that of the World Bank and donor agencies.

Keywords:
BOOK; budget system; right; reconstruction program; Kosovo budget
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Greece: Staff Report for the 1999 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund
This 1999 Article IV Consultation with Greece highlights that the ‘regime switch’ represented by the drachma devaluation, ERM entry, and the accompanying strengthening of policies was deemed essential also by the staff, both for competitiveness and confidence reasons. The monetary policy stance centered on high interest rates and a strong drachma-has been tight, contributing to the anti-inflationary effort. The growth of mortgage and consumer lending has been particularly brisk, raising Bank of Greece concerns about its potential inflationary impact. On structural reforms, progress has been visible with regard to privatization and some aspects of public enterprise restructuring, but much remains to be done, while broad social security and labor market reforms remain largely on hold. The IMF staff recognized that, having eschewed what it saw as the preferable option of an immediate post-devaluation tightening of the fiscal stance, the authorities had left themselves with limited policy tools to restrain inflation within the short time span available to the Maastricht test date.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; deficit; core inflation; harmonized inflation index; foodstuff price; EMU qualification; convergence program target; interest rate fall; Inflation; Consumption; Fiscal stance; Privatization; Europe; Southern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Japan: Economic and Policy Developments
International Monetary Fund
This paper provides a brief overview of the causes of the poor economic performance of Japan in the 1990s, and a more detailed analysis of developments in the real sector during 1999. The paper highlights that the collapse of the asset price bubble in 1990–91 provided the trigger for the downturn in 1992, and compounded the economic problems thereafter through its effects on the banking system. This paper also analyzes the fiscal policy developments and the monetary developments in Japan.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; price; government bond; consumption; loan; foreign exchange; investment; business investment; asset price collapse; fiscal policy; BOJ bill; BOJ measure; Loans; Budget planning and preparation; Private consumption; Asia and Pacific; Global; North America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Welfare Cost of (Low) Inflation: A General Equilibrium Perspective
Mr. Howell H Zee
This paper provides general equilibrium estimates of the steady-state welfare gains of lowering inflation from a low level to close to price stability, using an overlapping-generations growth model. Money demand is modeled on the basis that real money balances are a factor of production. Assuming a standard Fisher equation modified by the presence of an income tax, it is found that inflation unambiguously reduces capital intensity, drives up the before-tax real rate of return to capital, and unambiguously imposes a life-time welfare cost. This welfare cost is, however, quantitatively very modest (under 0.2 percent of GDP annually) within reasonable ranges of all parameter values.
Keywords:
WP; inflation rate; rate of return