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Business and Economics > Budgeting

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 88 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt x
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Cover High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
Panama: Fiscal Transparency Evaluation
Cigdem Aslan
,
David S Bailey
,
Felipe Bardella
,
Lesley Fisher
,
Camilo Gomez-Osorio
,
Jean-Baptiste Gros
, and
Timothy C Irwin
An IMF team found that Panama has a cash-based system of budgeting and accounting that generates good information on many aspects of public finances. There are, however, many weaknesses in the system which diverge from the sound practices included in the Fund's Fiscal Transparency Code. Panama's ratings are lower than those of regional comparators, especially in the area of fiscal risks. The team developed high-priority recommendations to improve Panama's fiscal transparency principles.
Keywords:
Fiscal Transparency; Fiscal Reporting; Financial Statements; Auditing; Fiscal Forecasting; Fiscal Planning; Budgeting; Fiscal Policy Objectives; Fiscal Risk; Macroeconomic Risks; Specific Fiscal Risks; Fiscal Coordination; IMF team; capacity development recipient; deficit target; revenue compare; Social-Fiscal Responsibility Law; Fiscal risks; Fiscal Transparency Evaluation (FTE); Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal law; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Global
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Mongolia: Technical Assistance Report-Macroeconomic Framework Technical Assistance: Scoping Mission
International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development
Further to Mongolia’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) request, an assessment mission was carried out from May 24 to June 2, 2023. The mission reviewed the needs, capacity and constraints for the development of institutional macroeconomic forecasting capacity at the Financial and Fiscal Research Department (FFRD). Notably, despite FFRD’s ambitious goals in fiscal policymaking, a comprehensive macroeconomic framework for analysis, forecasting, and assessing fiscal policy's macroeconomic impact is not yet in place. The action plan and logical framework is centered around capacity development and customization of the Comprehensive Adaptive Expectations Model (CAEM) to the Mongolia economy. This note summarizes the main findings and action plan agreed on for the project.
Keywords:
Macroeconomic Framework; Forecasting and Policy Analysis; Comprehensive Adaptive Expectations Model (CAEM); Mongolia.; IMF mission team; FFRD officer; Mongolia's Ministry of Finance; FFRD staff monitor; data management practice; macroeconomic projection tool; Macro-fiscal framework; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Budget planning and preparation; Global
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Pakistan: Technical Assistance Report-Improving Budget Practices
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Pakistan’s tight fiscal situation will require strong control over the budget in coming years. This report provides recommendations on steps to strengthen the country’s fiscal institutions to deliver a more credible budget, tighten its execution and prevent policy slippages. It also advises on how to digitalize the budget process to improve monitoring and reporting.
Keywords:
Pakistan; budget credibility; digitalization; supplementary grants; budget process.; call circular; IMF resident representative; FAD team; IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department; FCDO staff; FAD expert; Budget planning and preparation; Budget execution and treasury management; Budget execution processes; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Africa
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Colombia: Technical Assistance Report-Scoping Mission to Develop Macroeconomic Forecasting Capacity at the Autonomous Committee for the Fiscal Rule (CARF)
International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development
In response to a request from the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, staff from the IMF´s Institute for Capacity Development (ICD) conducted diagnostic work and provided insights to enhance the Autonomous Committee for the Fiscal Rule (CARF)'s technical capacity. This report emphasizes a comprehensive action plan agreed with CARF to develop and institutionalize a new macroeconomic framework using ICD´s Comprehensive Adaptive Expectations Model, integrated with CARF's tools. Anticipated to boost CARF's ability in generating accurate macroeconomic projections and assessments, this macroeconomic framework supports Colombia's policy development and implementation. The plan includes a two-year timetable with virtual engagements and in-person missions, aiming to transfer knowledge and build capacity among CARF's economists.
Keywords:
Evaluation and Selection; Forecasting and Other Model Applications; Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; General Macroeconomic Policy; Fiscal Policy; Planning Models; Planning Policy; Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development; Technical Assistance; Capacity Development; High Level Summary; Fiscal Council; Independent Fiscal Institution.; CARF team; CARF staff; satellite model; CARF authorities; staff turnover; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Fiscal rules; Medium-term budget frameworks
Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Develop and Implement a Medium-Term Fiscal Framework
Teresa R Curristine
,
Isabell Adenauer
,
Virginia Alonso-Albarran
,
John Grinyer
,
Koon Hui Tee
,
Claude P Wendling
, and
Delphine Moretti
This Note provides guidance on developing and implementing a medium-term fiscal framework (MTFF). MTFFs aim to promote fiscal discipline and sustainability, transparency, and better-informed fiscal decisions. An MTFF comprises a set of institutional arrangements for prioritizing, presenting, reporting, and managing fiscal aggregates - revenue, expenditure, balance, and debt - generally over a three-to-five-year period. It incorporates a fiscal strategy, medium-term projections of key macroeconomic variables and fiscal aggregates, and ceilings on total expenditure to guide subsequent annual budgets. By introducing a medium-term perspective into fiscal and budgetary decision making, MTFFs provide a clearer understanding of the impact, trade-offs, and risks of policy choices. MTFFs contribute to enhancing transparency and accountability by communicating the government’s medium-term fiscal goals, policies, and fiscal performance. Ultimately, clarity on medium-term fiscal plans and on their effective implementation can bolster confidence in the government’s ability to manage its finances prudently and competently. In addition to providing guidance on how to design an MTFF and the institutional and technical arrangements needed to support implementation, the Note discusses key challenges and presents country examples from across the globe by income group and concludes with lessons learned.
Keywords:
fiscal frameworks; fiscal planning; budget cycles; MTFF; medium-term fiscal framework; emerging market economy country example; MTFF specification; koon hui tee; MTFF projection Tool; MTFF time horizon; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal rules; Fiscal risks; Caribbean
Cover Departmental Papers
Upgrading Fiscal Frameworks in Asia-Pacific
Enrique Flores
,
Pranav Gupta
,
Yinqiu Lu
,
Paulo A Medas
,
Dinar Prihardini
,
Hoda Selim
,
Weining Xin
, and
Masafumi Yabara
This paper seeks to guide the reform of fiscal frameworks in Asia-Pacific in the context of calls for a more active fiscal policy in a shock-prone world. It highlights that the cost of fiscal support is large and that fiscal frameworks, including fiscal rules, are being put to the test given the sharp increase in debt, high interest and weaker growth prospects. The stress is only compounded by long-term challenges like aging populations, climate change and the need to deliver on the sustainable development goals. In this context, it is timely to review the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Asia-Pacific and seek for ways to strengthen fiscal frameworks. After the global financial crisis, fiscal policy in Asia-Pacific became more countercylical and stronger than in other regions—especially in advanced economies. The paper shows that the degree of countercyclicality has been asymetric, with larger responses during periods of weak growth, and in particular in response to large shocks—the global financial crisis and the pandemic. It highlights that responses to the pandemic were large and used a wide range of tools, and how fiscal and monetary policy complemented each as they responded to large shocks. It looks into the deterioration of debt dynamics in Asia-Pacific, as public debt has been rising persistently across most countries driven by declining growth and rising deficits—particualrly after the global financial crisis for advanced economies and after the pandemic for emerging market and low income countries. The paper reviews fiscal frameworks across Asia-Pacific, including the use of fiscal rules, medium-term fiscal frameworks, and fiscal councils. It describes the characteristics of fiscal rules, which usually focus on debt and budget balances and are set by law but tend to lack well-specified enforcement mechanism or escape clauses. It highlights that compliance with the rules has worsened following the pandemic as—in contrast with the outturns before the pandemic--Asia-Pacific countries tend to show larger deviations relative to other regions. It also shows that despite the increase adoption of medium-term fiscal frameworks in Asia-Pacific forward guidance has been hampered by the lack of binding targets and ex-post analysis. Moreover, they do not seem to have resulted in better macro-fiscal forecast in part due to weak capacity and enforcement, lack of integration with the annual budget, and exposure to shocks—with risk analysis mostly limited to qualitative discussions. Proposed reforms seek to implement a comprehensive, risk-based approach to public finances. They focus on strengthening the medium-term orientation of fiscal policy through credible medium-term fiscal plans, fiscal rules linked to the medium-term strategy and the annual budgets, and a stronger reliance on fiscal councils. They also emphasize the need for a broader view of the public sector as fiscal policy is being conducted through multiple channels, which requires assessing and managing vulnerabilities and a significant improvement in fiscal statistics. They also address aging and climate change by focusing on assessing large intergenerational trade-offs, reporting on long-term debt dynamics, and on green medium-term fiscal frameworks that incorporate the effects of climate change and climate policies.
Keywords:
Fiscal Rules Fiscal Frameworks Medium-term Fiscal Frameworks Public Debt Sustainability automatic stabilizers Climate Change Population Aging; Asia-Pacific country; Asia-Pacific economy; Asia-Pacific region; IMF country team; SRDSF country; Fiscal rules; Fiscal governance; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Asia and Pacific; Global; Pacific Islands
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Suggested Medium-Term Fiscal Framework for Guyana
Rina Bhattacharya
and
Do Yeon Park
Guyana is growing rapidly, and fiscal policy plays a critical role in ensuring that the country’s wealth is managed effectively and equitably. The paper analyzes crucial elements of a comprehensive fiscal policy framework, anchored on a medium-term fiscal framework, that would help in balancing several, and sometimes competing, fiscal policy objectives common to natural resource rich developing countries.
Keywords:
Fiscal policy framework; Fiscal rules, Non-renewable resources; Natural Resource Funds; resource wealth; fiscal policy path; Guyana's oil; expenditure growth rule; Fiscal sustainability; Natural resources; Oil production; Global
Cover High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
South Africa: Fiscal Transparency Evaluation
Carolina Renteria Rodriguez
,
Trish N Chiinze
,
Sage De Clerck
,
Foyzunnesa Khatun
,
Natalie Manuilova
, and
Vincent Tang
South Africa has many elements of sound fiscal transparency practices. Based on an assessment of fiscal transparency practices against the IMF’s Fiscal Transparency Code, South Africa’s practices are strongest in fiscal reporting, followed by fiscal forecasting and budgeting, and weakest in fiscal risk analysis. South Africa’s Balance Sheet public sector net worth – including assumptions for the values of non-reported assets – is estimated to be 100 percent of GDP. There is room to improve South Africa’s fiscal reporting, budget transparency, and management of fiscal risks.
Keywords:
Fiscal transparency; fiscal reporting; budgeting; fiscal risks; budget transparency; budget credibility; State capture; procurement deficiency; risk category; Fiscal Transparency Evaluation (FTE); Budget planning and preparation; Africa
Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Design and Institutionalize Spending Reviews
Laura Doherty
and
Amanda Sayegh
Spending reviews refer to the process of conducting in-depth assessments of existing public expenditure in order to identify opportunities to reduce or redirect spending from low-priority, inefficient, or ineffective spending. They offer a systemic approach to ensuring that spending is aligned with the government’s policy priorities, is effective in achieving its intended objectives and is deployed efficiently. This How to Note outlines the various objectives of spending reviews and provides guidance on designing a spending review process, including the organizational architecture and roles and responsibilities of various stakeholders. It also discusses the various stages of con¬ducting spending reviews and mechanisms for integrat¬ing their outcomes into the budget process. This note draws on lessons and experiences from countries that have established spending reviews, while recognizing that this is an emerging area for further reform.
Keywords:
• Spending reviews; public expenditure; public financial management; budget planning; program performance; efficiency and effectiveness; analyzing spending; A. spending review objective; IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department; spending review methodology; PFM reform; Public expenditure review; Budget planning and preparation; Expenditure efficiency; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Azerbaijan: Technical Assistance Report-Government Finance Statistics Missions (May 17-21 and July 22-August 4, 2021)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
Following the launch of the Caucasus, Central Asia, and Mongolia Regional Capacity Development Center (CCAMTAC) in February 2021, and in response to a request from the Azerbaijani authorities to support their statistical capacity development (CD) in government finance statistics (GFS), a series of technical assistance (TA) missions took place remotely (via Zoom meeting platform) during May 17−21 and July 22−August 4, 2021. Both missions were conducted by Mr. Roderick O’Mahony (GFS expert), who worked with the staff of the Ministry of Finance’s Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) Development Center as the main counterparts. He also met with other relevant agencies, including the State Oil Fund of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ), the State Employment Agency, and the State Social Protection Fund.1
Keywords:
IMF-World Bank database; GFS compiler; IMF's Statistics Department; source data provider; authorities of Armenia; Government finance statistics; Medium-term budget frameworks; Financial statements; Budget planning and preparation; Public sector; Central Asia