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Business and Economics > Budgeting

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Serbia: Fourth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, Cancellation of the Stand-By Arrangement, and Request for a 36 Month Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Serbia
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents Serbia’s Fourth Review under the Stand-By Arrangement, Cancellation of the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), and Request for a 36 Month Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI). Under the SBA, Serbia pursued ambitious reforms, helping achieve strong macroeconomic outcomes and a first ever investment grade rating in October 2024. By building on these accomplishments, the PCI will support the authorities in their efforts to demonstrate continued commitment to sound policies, sustain reform momentum, and anchor fiscal discipline. Under the PCI, public debt is slated to decline to 45 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 and lower thereafter, balancing continued fiscal prudence with spending needs, including for public investment. Further progress with fiscal-structural and state-owned enterprise reforms will be crucial complements to fiscal discipline. A restrictive monetary policy stance will help guard against upside inflation risks. The stabilized exchange rate has served Serbia well, but greater flexibility could be considered over time.
Keywords:
tolerance band; SBA review; investment sentiment; energy investment needs; NBS decision; Budget planning and preparation; Loans; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Algérie: Consultations de 2023 au titre de l’article IV-communiqué de presse; rapport des services du FMI et déclaration de l’administrateur pour l’Algérie
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
L’économie algérienne se relevait juste de la pandémie lorsqu’elle a été frappée par les répercussions de la guerre en Ukraine et une succession de sécheresses. Ces chocs ont alimenté l’inflation, même si la hausse des cours mondiaux des hydrocarbures a aussi augmenté les recettes publiques et les exportations. L’Algérie a enregistré une croissance vigoureuse en 2023 et sa position extérieure est restée solide, avec un excédent des transactions extérieures pour la deuxième année consécutive et une nouvelle accumulation de réserves de change. L’inflation demeure élevée et pourrait s’enraciner. Les lois de finances 2023–24 visent à soutenir le pouvoir d’achat des ménages, mais risquent d’épuiser les marges de manœuvre qui protègent le budget contre la volatilité des recettes. Les réformes structurelles progressent, avec la promulgation de la loi monétaire et bancaire et la mise en œuvre de la budgétisation par programmes et du code de l’investissement de 2022. Des investissements dans la transition numérique permettraient de renforcer la gouvernance et la transparence, de réduire les risques de corruption et d’améliorer la prestation des services.
Keywords:
la liquidité du marché; opération d’absorption de liquidité; risque d’inflation; le resserrement de la politique monétaire; système d’évaluation du crédit; pression inflationniste; prix des hydrocarbures; finances publiques; IPC de l’Algérie; Inflation; Planification et préparation du budget; les banques d’État; Global; Moyen-Orient; Afrique du Nord; Afrique orientale; Europe.
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Algeria: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Algeria
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that the Algerian economy is estimated to have grown by 4.2 percent in 2023, a robust performance owing to a rebound in hydrocarbon production and strong performance in the industry, construction, and service sectors. The near-term outlook is broadly positive, but inflation remains a concern. Medium-term economic prospects hinge on efforts to diversify the economy and the ability to attract private investment, and are subject to several risks. The reforms embodied in the Monetary and Banking Law could be an impetus to strengthen the credit market infrastructure, develop long-term savings products, and advance financial inclusion. Sustained and bold reforms would tap the potential of the private sector as driver of sustained growth and job creation. The implementation of the Investment Law and the enactment of a new Land Law aim at fostering private sector initiative and investment and should be complemented with reforming the state-owned enterprises sector and making product and labor market more flexible.
Keywords:
market liquidity; liquidity-absorption operation; inflation risk; monetary policy tightening; credit assessment System; inflation pressure; hydrocarbon price; public finance; Algeria's CPI; Inflation; Budget planning and preparation; State-owned banks; Global; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Guiné-Bissau: terceira avaliação ao abrigo da Facilidade de Crédito Alargado e dos pedidos de aumento do acesso, de dispensa do cumprimento de critérios de desempenho e de alteração de um critério de desempenho e da avaliação das garantias de financiamento- Comunicado de Imprensa; Relatório do Corpo Técnico; Análise de Sustentabilidade da Dívida e Declaração do Administrador para a Guiné-Bissau
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Contexto. O contexto sociopolítico da Guiné-Bissau manteve-se estável durante a transição para um novo governo liderado pela oposição, mas o país enfrenta um choque externo adverso. O desempenho dececionante das exportações de castanha de caju aumentou substancialmente o défice da conta corrente, enquanto o financiamento é limitado por condições financeiras regionais mais restritivas. Os elevados preços dos produtos alimentares estão a dar origem a riscos de insegurança alimentar. Neste contexto, as autoridades solicitaram um aumento do acesso de 40% da quota (11,36 milhões de DSE) para satisfazer necessidades de financiamento prementes, elevando o acesso total do programa para 140% da quota (39,76 milhões de DSE). O programa apoiado pela Facilidade de Crédito Alargado (ECF) tem catalisado o muito necessário financiamento em condições altamente concessionais, em especial para o apoio orçamental adicional.
Keywords:
prompt resolution; government stake; Guinea-Bissau authorities; ECF arrangement; Guinea-Bissau's authorities; Debt sustainability analysis; Global; West Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Guinea-Bissau: Third Review Under The Extended Credit Facility Arrangement And Requests For Augmentation Of Access, Waiver Of Nonobservance Of Performance Criteria, Modification Of A Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea-Bissau
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper analyzes Guinea-Bissau’s Third Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Requests for Augmentation of Access, Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review. Guinea Bissau’s socio-political context remained stable during the transition to an opposition-led new government, but the country is facing an adverse external shock. Performance under the ECF supported program was weaker than expected. Four out of eight Quantitative Performance Criteria (QPC) were missed for June 2023. The QPC on the domestic primary balance was missed because of the significant discretionary spending overrun during the election period. However, the new government has demonstrated its strong commitment to fiscal consolidation and securing debt sustainability. Program performance was weaker than expected, but the authorities have adopted corrective actions and a draft 2024 budget in line with program parameters. They are strictly rationalizing nonpriority expenditure, mobilizing additional revenue, and tightly controlling the wage bill. Continued efforts in these areas and sustained fiscal consolidation are needed to ensure debt sustainability.
Keywords:
prompt resolution; government stake; Guinea-Bissau authorities; ECF arrangement; Guinea-Bissau's authorities; Debt sustainability analysis; Global; West Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Moldova: Third Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility and the Extended Fund Facility Arrangements, and Request for a Waiver for Nonobservance of Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Moldova
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents the Republic of Moldova’s Third Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility and the Extended Fund Facility Arrangements, and Request for a Waiver for Nonobservance of Performance Criterion. As the outlook is subject to high uncertainty, near-term priorities should remain focused on mitigating the impact of the war, ensuring energy security, adapting contingency plans to evolving risks, and maintaining an appropriate policy mix. Once near-term pressures from the crises subside, the authorities appropriately plan to reorient spending toward supporting the recovery. Moldova remains in a precarious position. Russia’s war in Ukraine and its proximity to Moldova continue to fuel security concerns, while the social fabric remains fragile and stretched by high food and energy prices. Prudent use of contingency plans has helped reduce energy security risks and supported the most vulnerable through the cost-of-living crisis. Continued strong reform implementation—supported by the program—helps build solid foundations for sustainable long-term development.
Keywords:
reform agenda; Policy discussion; monetary policy easing; reform path; inflation consultation clause; Inflation; Budget planning and preparation; Loans; International reserves; Corruption; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Algeria: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Algeria’s economic recovery from the pandemic has been buoyed by the rise in international hydrocarbon prices. Fiscal and external surpluses are expected in 2022 for the first time in years. Inflation has nevertheless accelerated, as elsewhere, and has become a complex policy challenge. Monetary policy remained accommodative, while the dinar appreciated in the second half of the year. The authorities have gradually advanced on their structural reform agenda, with the enactment of a new law on investment, renewed efforts to accelerate digitalization, significant progress on tax and public finance management reforms, and a forthcoming revision to the central bank law.
Keywords:
money market rate; oil prices decline; financial asset; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; headline inflation; Inflation; Budget planning and preparation; State-owned banks; Tax administration core functions; Budget execution and treasury management; Global; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Algeria: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2022 Article IV Consultation with Algeria highlights that the upswing in hydrocarbon prices has alleviated pressures on public and external finances and the post-pandemic recovery has likely gathered pace. The prospects for 2023 are favorable but growth is projected to decelerate and inflation to remain high in the medium term. The near-term outlook for the Algerian economy has materially improved, buoyed by the upswing in hydrocarbon prices. The announced sizeable rise in spending under the 2023 budget could reverse the progress achieved on narrowing the deficit since 2018, weaken the resilience of public finances and add to inflation pressures. The medium-term deficit trajectory also carries risks for macroeconomic stability. Continued wide fiscal deficits and increasing principal repayments coming due on past monetary financing would result in large fiscal financing needs through the medium term. As the authorities have ruled out foreign borrowing, meeting these financing needs would heap significant pressure on the domestic banking system and pose risks to financial and macroeconomic stability. Gradual fiscal rebalancing guided by a rules-based framework is needed to enhance the resilience of public finances and safeguard macroeconomic stability in the medium term.
Keywords:
money market rate; oil prices decline; financial asset; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; headline inflation; Inflation; Budget planning and preparation; State-owned banks; Tax administration core functions; Budget execution and treasury management; Global; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: 2022 Article IV Consultation with Member Countries on Common Policies of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2022 Article IV Consultation highlights that with Eastern Caribbean Currency Union economies slowly emerging from the pandemic with scars, the impact of the war in Ukraine is a setback to the nascent recovery. Higher food and energy prices, amid ongoing supply disruptions and intra-regional transportation bottlenecks, are raising inflation, eroding income, lowering output growth, worsening fiscal and external positions, and threatening food and energy security. The financial system has remained broadly stable so far, with adequate capital and liquidity buffers, but nonperforming loans remain high and could rise further following the expiration of the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank’s loan moratoria program. The outlook is subject to large downside risks, primarily from further increases in commodity prices and new coronavirus disease variants amid vaccine hesitancy, in addition to the ever-present threat of natural disasters. The report recommends that maintaining fiscal prudence while protecting the vulnerable through health spending and temporary targeted transfers and enhanced social safety nets to cope with rising living costs. Adopting well-designed rule-based fiscal frameworks would help achieve fiscal consolidation, enhance resilience to shocks such as natural disasters, and preserve the credibility of the regional debt target.
Keywords:
ECCU economy; ECCU member country; ECCU country; ECCU member states; ECCU region; Natural disasters; COVID-19; Fiscal stance; Caribbean; Global; Climate change; Loans
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Albania: First Post-Program Monitoring-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Albania
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Albania continues to be severely affected by the aftermath of the November 2019 earthquake and the COVID-19 pandemic. The authorities responded promptly to the shocks, and macroeconomic and financial stability have so far been maintained. The economy is expected to contract sharply in 2020, followed by a gradual recovery in 2021-22. The outlook is subject to major uncertainty and rising downside risks as a second wave is gripping many countries in Europe. Albania’s capacity to repay the Fund is adequate, but risks have risen in light of the shocks. Aside from a more severe pandemic, key risks stem from elevated public deficits and debt, weaknesses in public finances, and a relatively high level of non-performing loans (NPLs) and euroization.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; test positivity rate; staff appraisal; test rate; night curfew; BoA stress-test; COVID-19; Budget planning and preparation; Europe