Business and Economics > Budgeting

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Santos Bila
,
Utkarsh Kumar
, and
Alexis Meyer-Cirkel
This paper analyzes the use of tax policy as industrial policy in Mozambique. Despite significant foregone tax revenue due to industrial policy in the form of tax incentives, the effectiveness of Mozambique's tax policy remains questionable due to insufficient data and unclear public policy strategy. Through an examination of macro data, tax reports, and data from World Bank Enterprise Surveys, the note underscores the need for a thorough reassessment of existing tax measures. It advocates for a more strategic, targeted and evidence-based design of tax incentives that deliver on industrial policy goals.
Manabu Nose
Public-private partnerships (PPPs) have increased rapidly in emerging and developing countries, creating both opportunities and fiscal challenges. One of the main challenges is that while governments have increased commitments in guarantees and direct subsidies to promote PPPs, contractual disputes remain high with significant costs. This paper examines how fiscal institutions affect the selection of PPP contracts and the probability of contract disputes using about 6,000 PPP contract-level data. The analysis shows that larger government financing needs, lower budget transparency and bureaucratic efficiency are associated with higher probability for governments to offer guarantees. Propensity score matching results show that disputes are more common for guaranteed contracts due to adverse selection and contingent liability effects. PPP management quality and budget transparency are found to be key determinants for a longer survival of PPPs.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This report reviews the IMF’s effort to build fiscal capacity in fragile states. It presents case studies on IMF technical assistance (TA) and capacity development in the fiscal area, provided by its Fiscal Affairs Department in collaboration with the Legal Department, in countries including Afghanistan, Haiti, Kosovo, Liberia, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, and Timor-Leste. The details in the case studies in various areas of fiscal policy management shed light on country-specific characteristics, how well IMF TA helped countries address fiscal capacity in the past, and lessons learned that could improve TA strategies and delivery in the future.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Morocco’s First Review under the Arrangement under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL). Morocco’s economic fundamentals and policy frameworks are sound. The country is implementing well-constructed policies and remains committed to maintaining such policies in the future. The September 2016 quantitative indicative targets (ITs) were met. The end-March 2017 fiscal deficit ITs were met, but the end-March 2017 reserves ITs were missed owing to the widening current account deficit since July 2016. The authorities have not drawn on the arrangement and continue to treat it as precautionary. The IMF staff recommends the completion of the first review under the PLL arrangement.
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

The twelfth Annual Report of the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) describes activities during financial year 2015 (May 1, 2014–April 30, 2015). During the financial year, the IEO completed an evaluation of the IMF response to the global financial and economic crisis. It also issued two reports updating three past evaluations: The IMF’s Approach to Capital Account Liberalization: Revisiting the 2005 IEO Evaluation; and Revisiting the IEO Evaluations of the IMF’s Role in Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSP) and the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) (2004) and the IEO Evaluation of IMF and Aid to Sub-Saharan Africa (2007). In addition, the Executive Board discussed the IEO evaluation of Recurring Issues from a Decade of Evaluation: Lessons for the IMF, which was issued to the Board in FY2014. The paper reports on the IEO budget and outreach efforts in the financial year. This paper also summarizes the evaluations on Recurring Issues and the IMF Response to the Financial and Economic Crisis, the Board discussions of these evaluations, and the two updates of past evaluations. It also discusses follow-up on IEO evaluations and addresses ongoing evaluations and the IEO work program going forward. A table lists the IEO evaluations and evaluation updates completed or in progress.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes export competitiveness in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYR Macedonia). Export performance in FYR Macedonia has been strong over the last decade, critically contributing to overall growth. Exports have been re-oriented toward new products with higher technological content, allowing for the build-up of revealed comparative advantages in these products. The analysis based on Constant Market Share analysis shows that the overall competitiveness gap of FYR Macedonia with respect to other emerging European countries has narrowed. There appears to be significant room for quality improvement, including for the most successful export products. Although the contribution of exports to GDP growth has been significant, spillover into the domestic tradable sector from the foreign investment led export sector remains limited so far.
International Monetary Fund
Strong fundamentals and countercyclical policies have helped Malaysia during the global financial crisis. Executive Directors welcomed the authorities' challenge to make progress toward economic growth and structural transformation. Directors welcomed the consolidation effort in the 2010 budget, and stressed that a sound and sustained fiscal adjustment is essential. Directors appreciated the monetary policy stance to sustain noninflation growth. They welcomed the new Central Bank Act, which reinforces the underpinnings of the financial system. Directors also commended the authorities’ decision to participate in the Financial Sector Assessment Program.
International Monetary Fund
The key findings of the Republic of Palau’s 2010 Article IV Consultation shows that the single most important issue in Palau remains fiscal policy, including its effect on medium-term growth, as fiscal consolidation proceeds. The global financial crisis followed on the heels of a massive terms-of-trade shock, leading to a sharp curtailment of foreign direct investment and private credit. Tourism tumbled following an airline bankruptcy, and construction activity fell as major infrastructure projects reached completion.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Tout porte à croire que le ralentissement économique en Afrique subsaharienne aura heureusement été de courte durée. La reprise est en cours dans toute la région. La relative capacité de résistance de la région lors de cette récession mondiale, qui distingue le dernier ralentissement en date des cycles précédents, réside dans le fait que la plupart des pays de la région ont abordé la crise dans de meilleures conditions sur le plan macroéconomique. Les politiques macroéconomiques anticycliques ont joué un rôle important : près des deux tiers des pays qui ont connu un ralentissement en 2009 ont été en mesure d'accroître leurs dépenses publiques pour soutenir l'activité économique. Toutefois, la réalisation des objectifs du millénaire pour le développement a été freinée. Les pays à revenu intermédiaire et les pays exportateurs de pétrole ont été touchés particulièrement durement par l'effondrement du commerce international et des marchés des produits de base ; les pays à faible revenu de la région ont relativement peu souffert. Désormais, dans la plupart des pays d'Afrique subsaharienne, les politiques budgétaires doivent privilégier les objectifs à moyen terme, les marges de manœuvre des politiques macroéconomiques doivent être reconstituées, les systèmes financiers doivent être renforcés. Document publié deux fois par an, en mai et en octobre.