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Business and Economics > Budgeting

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 17 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Egypt, Arab Republic of x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Arab Republic of Egypt: Third Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Monetary Policy Consultation Clause, Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion and Applicability of Performance Criteria, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper presents Arab Republic of Egypt’s Third Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Monetary Policy Consultation Clause, Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion and Applicability of Performance Criteria, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. The Egyptian authorities’ recent efforts to restore macroeconomic stability have started to yield positive results. Inflation remains elevated but is coming down. A flexible exchange rate regime remains a cornerstone of the authorities’ program. However, the regional environment remains difficult, and complex domestic policy challenges require decisive implementation of the authorities’ reform program. Continued fiscal consolidation, with strengthened revenue mobilization, to create the space needed to expand social programs. Meaningfully advancing with the structural reform program would significantly improve growth prospects. Managing the resumption of capital inflows prudently will also be important to contain potential inflationary pressures and limit the risk of future external pressures.
Keywords:
waiver request; NIR floor; consultation band; headline consumer price inflation; currency government T-bills; monetary policy committee; supplementary letter of intent; Exchange rate arrangements; Budget planning and preparation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Arab Republic of Egypt: First and Second Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Monetary Policy Consultation, and Requests for Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion, and Augmentation and Rephasing of Access-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper presents Arab Republic of Egypt’s First and Second Reviews under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Monetary Policy Consultation, and Requests for Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion, and Augmentation and Rephasing of Access. A strong economic stabilization plan is being implemented to correct policy slippages. The plan is centered on a liberalized foreign exchange system in the context of a flexible exchange rate regime, a significant tightening of the policy mix, reducing public investment, and leveling the playing field to allow the private sector to become the engine of growth. While the recent sizable investment deal in Ras El-Hekma alleviates the near-term financing pressures, implementation of the economic policies under the program remains critical to address Egypt’s macroeconomic challenges. Robust delivery on structural reforms will be critical to lock in the benefits of the improved financing environment. IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for the completion of the first and second reviews under the EFF Arrangement.
Keywords:
interbank FX turnover; liberalized foreign exchange system; system functioning; fuel price subsidy; policy slippage; Fuel prices; Budget planning and preparation
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Arab Republic of Egypt: Technical Assistance Report-Public Investment Management Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This report assesses the institutional design and effectiveness of public investment management (PIM) in Egypt. The report concludes that effectiveness is stronger than or on par with comparators for national planning and inter-governmental coordination, and weaker than the average comparator country on several other PIM institutions. Improvements in PIM will be important to close efficiency gaps and enhance the productivity of future public investments. Egypt’s Government has already taken several steps to improve the access to infrastructure and quality of public investment management, including through new legislation, new information systems and significant efforts to enhance staff capacities. The report provides five main recommendations for how these reform steps can be strengthened, sustained and further extended: 1) Strengthen project appraisal and selection processes; 2) Enable private sector involvement in public infrastructure provision: 3) Operationalize PFM law provisions for medium-term budgeting; 4) Strengthen asset management and ensure sufficient maintenance; and 5) Strengthen procurement, project and portfolio management.
Keywords:
Arab Republic of Egypt; PIMA; Investment; Infrastructure; Efficiency; Climate.; General government debt; procurement system; Ministry of petroleum; authorities of the Arab Republic of Egypt; Ministry of housing; Public investment spending; Budget planning and preparation; Middle East; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Arab Republic of Egypt: 2021 Article IV Consultation, Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Arab Republic of Egypt
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The economic and social impact of the COVID-19 pandemic over the past year has been well-managed by the authorities. Timely and prudent fiscal and monetary easing shielded the economy from the full brunt of the crisis, while alleviating the health and social impact of the shock. Sound economic policies helped deliver macroeconomic stabilization, safeguard debt sustainability, and preserve investor confidence. While growth is expected to rebound in FY2021/22, the outlook is still clouded by uncertainty related to the pandemic and the pace of vaccinations. High public debt and large gross financing needs leave Egypt vulnerable to external shocks or changes in financial market conditions for EMs. Near-term fiscal and monetary policies should thus continue to support the recovery without accumulating undue imbalances.
Keywords:
consumer price index inflation; CBE's inflation target; end-March monetary policy Consultation clause; financing gap; financial asset; Budget planning and preparation; Climate finance; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Arab Republic of Egypt: First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Monetary Policy Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Arab Republic of Egypt
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The growth impact of the COVID-19 crisis has so far been less severe than expected, as strong consumption helped offset weak tourism and investment. Measures taken to address the health and social needs and support the sectors most directly affected by the crisis appear to have helped mitigate the impact of the shock. External market conditions have improved with a strong return of portfolio inflows since the approval of the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA).
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; consumer price index inflation; consumer price inflation; internal audit mechanism; expenditure control process; inflation expectation
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Arab Republic of Egypt: Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Arab Republic of Egypt
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic has drastically disrupted people’s lives, livelihoods, and economic conditions. Growth is expected to slow considerably in both 2019/20 and 2020/21 as tourism is at a standstill and domestic activity is expected to significantly slow. The external accounts are expected to deteriorate from portfolio outflows and the shock to tourism and remittances, resulting in an urgent balance of payments need.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Egypt; balance of payments gap; debt; debt sustainability assessment; support; investor confidence; fund GRA credit; hard-won macroeconomic stability; executive board discussion; Credit; Debt service; Global; COVID-19
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Arab Republic of Egypt: Request for a 12-Month Stand-By Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Arab Republic of Egypt
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Egypt’s hard-won macroeconomic stability achieved during the three-year arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) now faces a significant disruption due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Growth is expected to slow in both FY2019/20 and FY2020/21 as tourism has been halted and domestic activity curtailed. The external accounts have come under pressure due to capital outflows and the shock to tourism and remittances. The authorities responded with a broad package to scale up the health system’s capacity and policies to support the people and the economy.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; staff's appraisal; safeguards assessment of the Central Bank of Egypt; draft bill; update to the safeguards assessment; government priority; Debt service; Credit; Global; COVID-19
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Arab Republic of Egypt: 2017 Article IV Consultation, Second Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Arab Republic of Egypt
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Egypt’s reform program, supported by the Extended Fund Facility arrangement, has played a critical role in stabilizing the economy. By the end of 2015/16, a long-standing and ultimately unsustainable policy mix had resulted in low growth and investment, elevated general government debt, an overvalued exchange rate, a widening current account deficit, declining gross international reserves and severe shortages of foreign exchange. Egypt’s economic outlook is favorable, provided prudent macroeconomic policies are maintained and the scope of growth-enhancing reforms is broadened. To sustain economic reform momentum, in the medium term, policy priorities should aim to raise potential output and promote inclusive growth to create jobs for Egypt’s young and growing population.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; authority; center; economy; policy; Egyptian pound; government procurement; state guarantee; inflation expectation; financial asset; liberalized exchange rate regime; Inflation; Energy subsidies; Budget planning and preparation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Arab Republic of Egypt: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
KEY ISSUES The 2014 Article IV consultation takes place when the authorities have started to address longstanding economic challenges. For a number of years Egypt has suffered from low and non-inclusive growth and from high unemployment. Since 2011 these problems have been compounded by large fiscal deficits and rising public debt and by external fragility evidenced by loss of foreign exchange reserves. In 2014, Egypt adopted a new constitution and elected a new president who was candid with the electorate on the need to reform the economy. The government has developed a plan centered on structural reform and investment promotion to raise growth and create jobs, and fiscal adjustment to bring the budget deficit and public debt under control. Crucially, the authorities have already begun to implement fuel subsidy reform, raising prices by 40–80 percent in July 2014. They have also begun the reforms needed to raise tax revenue and to make Egypt a more attractive destination for investment. There was agreement that the authorities’ objectives are ambitious but are broadly within reach with steady policy implementation. The authorities aim to raise growth to 6 percent per annum, reduce annual inflation to 7 percent, bring down the fiscal deficit to 8 percent of GDP and debt to 80–85 percent of GDP, and increase foreign exchange reserves to 3½ months of imports, all within the next five years. Staff considers these objectives appropriately ambitious, although targeting a higher level of reserves would be prudent. It believes that the authorities’ policies, if followed steadfastly, are broadly consistent with these objectives, but noted that a number of policies—including the details of some fiscal measures and structural measures to improve the business environment—are still being formulated. The authorities and the staff differed somewhat on the extent of vulnerabilities and risks. The authorities are confident that they will be able to follow through on their policies and that improved confidence will lead to a surge in foreign investment, a pickup in tourism, and strong economic growth. Staff emphasized that the authorities’ policies would still leave significant vulnerabilities, namely high public debt and large financing gaps, which would need to be covered by greater adjustment or financing, or a combination of the two. Staff also pointed to the difficulty of maintaining tight fiscal and monetary policies over a long period, the risks of dilution of structural reform efforts, and the uncertain regional security environment. To contain these vulnerabilities and risks, staff recommended developing contingency measures in the budget, taking steps to build up reserves buffers, and greater exchange rate flexibility to restore competitiveness. However, staff also agreed that with steadfast commitment to reform, Egypt’s prospects could be stronger than assumed in staff’s projections. In particular, the recovery in investment could exceed expectations.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; exchange rate; debt; government; economy; trade balance; Monetary Policy Committee of the CBE; current account; investment promotion; financial asset; Budget planning and preparation; Government debt management; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Arab Countries in Transition - Economic Outlook and Key Challenges
International Monetary Fund
In spite of deepening and spreading conflicts in the region, as well as, in many cases, a challenging internal socio-political environment, the Arab Countries in Transition (Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia and Yemen) have broadly maintained macroeconomic stability. At the same time, however, their economies are not delivering the growth rates needed for a meaningful reduction in unemployment, in particular for the youth and women. Notwithstanding diversity of conditions, countries should quickly advance structural reforms to foster higher and more inclusive growth, and continue to strengthen fiscal and external buffers to maintain stability amid heightened uncertainty. Coordinated support from the international community will be crucial in the form of financing, improved trade access, and capacity building assistance.
Keywords:
PP; current account; monetary policy; excl. grant; exchange rate; economic activity; labor market; private sector; government balance; Current account deficits; Government debt management; Budget planning and preparation; Middle East; Global