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Business and Economics > Budgeting

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 573 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Fiscal Policy x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Solomon Islands: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
government debt data; Solomon Islands' challenge; effectiveness of Solomon islands; D. enhancing effectiveness; debt anchor; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal governance; Government finance statistics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Liberia: First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Liberia
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Liberia continues to face substantial long-term development challenges. Resource constraints and substantial gaps in infrastructure and human capital have hindered Liberia’s growth prospects and the authorities’ efforts to improve living standards. Addressing these challenges will require sustained efforts to mobilize additional revenues, enhance financial stability, improve public financial management, and seek external grants and highly concessional loans for key capital investment projects. Improvements in these areas would help create fiscal space to scale up investment in infrastructure and human capital, thus unleashing the country’s growth potential.
Keywords:
Liberian authorities; budget proposal; governance reform; CBL liquidity management operation; reform agenda; Policy discussion; governance shortcoming; IMF's transparency policy; Budget planning and preparation; Credit; Global; West Africa; Africa
Cover High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
Panama: Fiscal Transparency Evaluation
Cigdem Aslan
,
David S Bailey
,
Felipe Bardella
,
Lesley Fisher
,
Camilo Gomez-Osorio
,
Jean-Baptiste Gros
, and
Timothy C Irwin
An IMF team found that Panama has a cash-based system of budgeting and accounting that generates good information on many aspects of public finances. There are, however, many weaknesses in the system which diverge from the sound practices included in the Fund's Fiscal Transparency Code. Panama's ratings are lower than those of regional comparators, especially in the area of fiscal risks. The team developed high-priority recommendations to improve Panama's fiscal transparency principles.
Keywords:
Fiscal Transparency; Fiscal Reporting; Financial Statements; Auditing; Fiscal Forecasting; Fiscal Planning; Budgeting; Fiscal Policy Objectives; Fiscal Risk; Macroeconomic Risks; Specific Fiscal Risks; Fiscal Coordination; IMF team; capacity development recipient; deficit target; revenue compare; Social-Fiscal Responsibility Law; Fiscal risks; Fiscal Transparency Evaluation (FTE); Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal law; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Global
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Mongolia: Technical Assistance Report-Macroeconomic Framework Technical Assistance: Scoping Mission
International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development
Further to Mongolia’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) request, an assessment mission was carried out from May 24 to June 2, 2023. The mission reviewed the needs, capacity and constraints for the development of institutional macroeconomic forecasting capacity at the Financial and Fiscal Research Department (FFRD). Notably, despite FFRD’s ambitious goals in fiscal policymaking, a comprehensive macroeconomic framework for analysis, forecasting, and assessing fiscal policy's macroeconomic impact is not yet in place. The action plan and logical framework is centered around capacity development and customization of the Comprehensive Adaptive Expectations Model (CAEM) to the Mongolia economy. This note summarizes the main findings and action plan agreed on for the project.
Keywords:
Macroeconomic Framework; Forecasting and Policy Analysis; Comprehensive Adaptive Expectations Model (CAEM); Mongolia.; IMF mission team; FFRD officer; Mongolia's Ministry of Finance; FFRD staff monitor; data management practice; macroeconomic projection tool; Macro-fiscal framework; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Budget planning and preparation; Global
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Colombia: Technical Assistance Report-Scoping Mission to Develop Macroeconomic Forecasting Capacity at the Autonomous Committee for the Fiscal Rule (CARF)
International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development
In response to a request from the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, staff from the IMF´s Institute for Capacity Development (ICD) conducted diagnostic work and provided insights to enhance the Autonomous Committee for the Fiscal Rule (CARF)'s technical capacity. This report emphasizes a comprehensive action plan agreed with CARF to develop and institutionalize a new macroeconomic framework using ICD´s Comprehensive Adaptive Expectations Model, integrated with CARF's tools. Anticipated to boost CARF's ability in generating accurate macroeconomic projections and assessments, this macroeconomic framework supports Colombia's policy development and implementation. The plan includes a two-year timetable with virtual engagements and in-person missions, aiming to transfer knowledge and build capacity among CARF's economists.
Keywords:
Evaluation and Selection; Forecasting and Other Model Applications; Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; General Macroeconomic Policy; Fiscal Policy; Planning Models; Planning Policy; Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development; Technical Assistance; Capacity Development; High Level Summary; Fiscal Council; Independent Fiscal Institution.; CARF team; CARF staff; satellite model; CARF authorities; staff turnover; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Fiscal rules; Medium-term budget frameworks
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Fifth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Waivers of Applicability of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criterion, Rephasing of Access, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents Ukraine’s Fifth Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Requests for Waivers of Applicability of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criterion, Rephasing of Access, and Financing Assurances Review. Ukraine’s economy remains resilient, and performance remains strong under the EFF despite challenging conditions. The authorities met all end-June quantitative performance criteria and completed four structural benchmarks. Looking ahead, the recovery is expected to slow amid headwinds from the impact of the attacks on energy infrastructure and the continuing war, while risks to the outlook remain exceptionally high. Preparedness is necessary to enable appropriate policy action should risks materialize. Continued exchange rate flexibility under the managed exchange rate regime will help strengthen the resilience of the economy to external shocks. Sustained reform momentum, domestic revenue mobilization, and timely disbursement of external support are necessary to safeguard macroeconomic stability, restore fiscal and debt sustainability, and enhance institutional reforms.
Keywords:
downside Scenario financing gap; IMF staff estimate; C. financing Needs; budget financing needs; baseline scenario financing gap; authorities' intention; Debt sustainability; Budget planning and preparation; Sovereign bonds; International reserves; Europe
Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Develop and Implement a Medium-Term Fiscal Framework
Teresa R Curristine
,
Isabell Adenauer
,
Virginia Alonso-Albarran
,
John Grinyer
,
Koon Hui Tee
,
Claude P Wendling
, and
Delphine Moretti
This Note provides guidance on developing and implementing a medium-term fiscal framework (MTFF). MTFFs aim to promote fiscal discipline and sustainability, transparency, and better-informed fiscal decisions. An MTFF comprises a set of institutional arrangements for prioritizing, presenting, reporting, and managing fiscal aggregates - revenue, expenditure, balance, and debt - generally over a three-to-five-year period. It incorporates a fiscal strategy, medium-term projections of key macroeconomic variables and fiscal aggregates, and ceilings on total expenditure to guide subsequent annual budgets. By introducing a medium-term perspective into fiscal and budgetary decision making, MTFFs provide a clearer understanding of the impact, trade-offs, and risks of policy choices. MTFFs contribute to enhancing transparency and accountability by communicating the government’s medium-term fiscal goals, policies, and fiscal performance. Ultimately, clarity on medium-term fiscal plans and on their effective implementation can bolster confidence in the government’s ability to manage its finances prudently and competently. In addition to providing guidance on how to design an MTFF and the institutional and technical arrangements needed to support implementation, the Note discusses key challenges and presents country examples from across the globe by income group and concludes with lessons learned.
Keywords:
fiscal frameworks; fiscal planning; budget cycles; MTFF; medium-term fiscal framework; emerging market economy country example; MTFF specification; koon hui tee; MTFF projection Tool; MTFF time horizon; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal rules; Fiscal risks; Caribbean
Cover Departmental Papers
Upgrading Fiscal Frameworks in Asia-Pacific
Enrique Flores
,
Pranav Gupta
,
Yinqiu Lu
,
Paulo A Medas
,
Dinar Prihardini
,
Hoda Selim
,
Weining Xin
, and
Masafumi Yabara
This paper seeks to guide the reform of fiscal frameworks in Asia-Pacific in the context of calls for a more active fiscal policy in a shock-prone world. It highlights that the cost of fiscal support is large and that fiscal frameworks, including fiscal rules, are being put to the test given the sharp increase in debt, high interest and weaker growth prospects. The stress is only compounded by long-term challenges like aging populations, climate change and the need to deliver on the sustainable development goals. In this context, it is timely to review the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Asia-Pacific and seek for ways to strengthen fiscal frameworks. After the global financial crisis, fiscal policy in Asia-Pacific became more countercylical and stronger than in other regions—especially in advanced economies. The paper shows that the degree of countercyclicality has been asymetric, with larger responses during periods of weak growth, and in particular in response to large shocks—the global financial crisis and the pandemic. It highlights that responses to the pandemic were large and used a wide range of tools, and how fiscal and monetary policy complemented each as they responded to large shocks. It looks into the deterioration of debt dynamics in Asia-Pacific, as public debt has been rising persistently across most countries driven by declining growth and rising deficits—particualrly after the global financial crisis for advanced economies and after the pandemic for emerging market and low income countries. The paper reviews fiscal frameworks across Asia-Pacific, including the use of fiscal rules, medium-term fiscal frameworks, and fiscal councils. It describes the characteristics of fiscal rules, which usually focus on debt and budget balances and are set by law but tend to lack well-specified enforcement mechanism or escape clauses. It highlights that compliance with the rules has worsened following the pandemic as—in contrast with the outturns before the pandemic--Asia-Pacific countries tend to show larger deviations relative to other regions. It also shows that despite the increase adoption of medium-term fiscal frameworks in Asia-Pacific forward guidance has been hampered by the lack of binding targets and ex-post analysis. Moreover, they do not seem to have resulted in better macro-fiscal forecast in part due to weak capacity and enforcement, lack of integration with the annual budget, and exposure to shocks—with risk analysis mostly limited to qualitative discussions. Proposed reforms seek to implement a comprehensive, risk-based approach to public finances. They focus on strengthening the medium-term orientation of fiscal policy through credible medium-term fiscal plans, fiscal rules linked to the medium-term strategy and the annual budgets, and a stronger reliance on fiscal councils. They also emphasize the need for a broader view of the public sector as fiscal policy is being conducted through multiple channels, which requires assessing and managing vulnerabilities and a significant improvement in fiscal statistics. They also address aging and climate change by focusing on assessing large intergenerational trade-offs, reporting on long-term debt dynamics, and on green medium-term fiscal frameworks that incorporate the effects of climate change and climate policies.
Keywords:
Fiscal Rules Fiscal Frameworks Medium-term Fiscal Frameworks Public Debt Sustainability automatic stabilizers Climate Change Population Aging; Asia-Pacific country; Asia-Pacific economy; Asia-Pacific region; IMF country team; SRDSF country; Fiscal rules; Fiscal governance; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Asia and Pacific; Global; Pacific Islands
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Botswana: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses the rationale for and design of a new Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) in Botswana. It reviews the causes of declining financial reserves and calculates fiscal targets that would be needed to achieve insurance and intergenerational equity objectives. While debt ratios have been steady, the government has financed these deficits by drawing down its assets. Intergenerational equity may be better served by creating financial assets, rather than through investment spending, although the two are not mutually exclusive. Botswana has tended to allocate resource revenues primarily to physical and human investment. Before discussing SWF design, it is important to consider the level of savings that the government requires to achieve its policy objectives. There are many reasons why a government may want to generate savings and manage them in a SWF. IMF concludes that a SWF could provide a useful institutional framework to support rebuilding buffers, but achieving significant savings to meaningfully fund an SWF would require much tighter fiscal policy than has been observed in recent years.
Keywords:
protection system; pula fund; research support; government investment account; C. financing social protection; Income inequality; Social protection spending; Fiscal rules; Budget planning and preparation; Global; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
Seychelles: Government Finance Statistics and Public Sector Debt Statistics Mission
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A diagnostic technical assistance mission from the IMF’s Statistics Department (STA) visited Seychelles during April 8-19, 2024, to support the authorities in improving the compilation and dissemination of government finance statistics (GFS) and public sector debt statistics (PSDS). The mission assisted the Ministry of Finance, National Planning and Trade, and the National Bureau of Statistics to broaden the institutional coverage of fiscal statistics through hands-on training and methodological guidance in deriving a draft public sector institutional table. The mission also supported the authorities in reviewing data sources, compilation, and dissemination practices for GFS and PSDS, as well as in streamlining working files for high frequency and annual fiscal statistics. This effort will help the authorities reduce statistical discrepancies and resume the submission of GFS data to STA.
Keywords:
Chart of accounts; central government; general government; government finance statistics; integrated financial management information system; public debt; public sector debt statistics; mission to Seychelles; International Monetary Fund's mission; compilation tool; GFS statement; compilation issue