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Business and Economics > Budgeting

You are looking at 1 - 2 of 2 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Fiscal Expectations Under the Stability and Growth Pact: Evidence from Survey Data
Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro
and
Jan-Christoph Rülke
The paper uses survey data to analyze whether financial market expectations on government budget deficits changed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). Our findings indicate that accuracy of financial expert deficit forecasts increased in France. Convergence between the European Commission's and market experts’ deficit forecasts also increased in France, Italy, and the United Kingdom, particularly during the period after SGP’s reform in 2005. Yet, convergence between markets’ forecasts and those of the French, German, and Italian national fiscal authorities seems not to have increased significantly during the SGP.
Keywords:
WP
Cover IMF Working Papers
Tax Revenue Forecasts in IMF-Supported Programs
Mr. Mikhail Golosov
and
Mr. John R King
Year-ahead forecasts of tax revenues incorporated into IMF programs for low-income countries, from 1993 to 1999, are compared with the corresponding outturns. The accuracy of these forecasts was low, with a mean absolute percentage error of 16 percent. Forecasts of tax revenues as a percentage of GDP were biased upwards, but there was no significant bias in forecasts of nominal tax revenues. Upward bias in the tax revenue forecasts was associated with subsequent interruptions to the program, and the length of time between the commencement of the program and the beginning of the year for which the forecast was made.
Keywords:
WP; tax revenue; tax revenue forecast; GDP; Forecasting; tax revenues; IMF-supported programs; nominal tax revenues; revenue estimation; forecasted tax revenue ratio; revenue collector; program revenue; tax ratio; Revenue forecasting; Budget planning and preparation; Debt bias; GDP forecasting; Africa