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Business and Economics > Budgeting

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 11 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Informal Economy; Underground Econom x
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Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Design and Institutionalize Spending Reviews
Laura Doherty
and
Amanda Sayegh
Spending reviews refer to the process of conducting in-depth assessments of existing public expenditure in order to identify opportunities to reduce or redirect spending from low-priority, inefficient, or ineffective spending. They offer a systemic approach to ensuring that spending is aligned with the government’s policy priorities, is effective in achieving its intended objectives and is deployed efficiently. This How to Note outlines the various objectives of spending reviews and provides guidance on designing a spending review process, including the organizational architecture and roles and responsibilities of various stakeholders. It also discusses the various stages of con¬ducting spending reviews and mechanisms for integrat¬ing their outcomes into the budget process. This note draws on lessons and experiences from countries that have established spending reviews, while recognizing that this is an emerging area for further reform.
Keywords:
• Spending reviews; public expenditure; public financial management; budget planning; program performance; efficiency and effectiveness; analyzing spending; A. spending review objective; IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department; spending review methodology; PFM reform; Public expenditure review; Budget planning and preparation; Expenditure efficiency; Europe; Global
Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Prepare Expenditure Baselines
Mr. Claude P Wendling
,
Ms. Eliko Pedastsaar
, and
Mr. Fazeer Sheik Rahim
Expenditure baseline projections (hereafter, “base¬lines”) are a key analytical concept in budget preparation that refers to estimates of future expenditure on the assumption that current policies remain unchanged. They serve as reference points against which other data, such as proposed or approved budgets, or expenditure ceilings, can be compared. In many countries they are a basic tool for starting the preparation of the budget. They represent neither future spending allocations nor total expected outturn as they do not incorporate estimates of the cost of new policies and the expected impact of saving measures. Other features of baselines are that they are generally produced over a multiyear period, they can be calcu¬lated at any level or form of the budget classification (that is, ministries, economic classification, specific policies, functions or programs), and can be summed up to higher levels (such as the whole budget). Hence, they can be useful at both a micro and an aggregate level. This note aims to clarify and establish a framework that covers baselines’ various purposes and uses. It first discusses the definition and objectives of baselines and the methodology used for producing them before outlining how they should be prepared. It concludes with a discussion of the key success factors for making the most effective use of baselines.
Keywords:
expenditure baselines; economic policies; ministry of finance; line ministries and agencies; social welfare; pension spending; budget frameworks; expenditure baseline; publication order; publication service; baseline projection; spending needs; baseline expenditure; budget negotiations; Budget planning and preparation; Wages; Fiscal space; Wage adjustments; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Authorities’ Fiscal Forecasts in Latin America: Are They Optimistic?
Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov
,
Mr. Luca A Ricci
,
Alejandro M. Werner
, and
Rene Zamarripa
Do governments in Latin America tend to be optimistic when preparing budgetary projections? We address this question by constructing a novel dataset of the authorities’ fiscal forecasts in six Latin American economies using data from annual budget documents over the period 2000-2018. In turn, we compare such forecasts with the outturns reported in the corresponding budget documents of the following years to understand the evolution of fiscal forecast errors. Our findings suggest that: (i) for most countries, there is no general optimistic bias in the forecasts for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio (though there may be for the components); (ii) fiscal forecasts have improved for some countries over time, albeit they have worsened for others; (iii) in terms of drivers, we show that forecast errors for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio are positively correlated with GDP growth and terms of trade changes and negatively with GDP deflator surprises; (iv) forecast errors for public debt-to-GDP ratios are negatively associated with surprises to GDP growth; (v) lastly, budget balance rules seem to help contain the size of the fiscal forecast errors.
Keywords:
forecast bias; budget balance rule; GDP ratio; expenditure rule; revenue-to-GDP ratio; Fiscal stance; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal rules; Caribbean
Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Collaborate Effectively to Improve Data Quality and Use in Revenue Administration and Official Statistics
Elizabeth Gavin
This note outlines the interest of Revenue Administrations (RAs) and National Statistical Offices (NSOs) in the quality of data at their disposal, and how collaboration between these organizations can contribute to improving data quality. The similarities between the data collection and processing steps in revenue administration and in the production of economic statistics underlie meaningful information and data sharing. Mutually beneficial collaboration between RAs and NSOs can be achieved, particularly in efforts to improve the coverage of registers and to update register information; classify economic activity; and analyze joint data to address data shortcomings. Since there are differences in concepts and definitions used in revenue administration and official statistics, dialogue is necessary to ensure the effective use of data from the partner organization. Collaboration can improve the quality of data available to both institutions: for RAs, this can assist in realizing improved taxpayer compliance and revenue mobilization, and for NSOs, tax-administrative data sources may enable expanded coverage of the economy in official statistics and reduce timeframes required for publishing economic time series and national accounts. Together, these outcomes can enhance the policy formulation, planning, and service delivery capability of governments. To that end, this note delineates concrete steps to engender sustainable and meaningful interchange of information and data between the RA and NSO.
Keywords:
data quality; RA-NSO engagement; assessment tool; taxpayer information; quality challenge; Tax administration core functions; Data collection; Information for taxpayers; Economic classification; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Scaling Up Quality Infrastructure Investment
Olivier Bizimana
,
Laura Jaramillo
, and
Mr. Saji Thomas
South Asia needs large infrastructure investments to achieve its development goals, and public investment can also support the Covid-19 recovery. Regression estimates that account for the quantity and quality of investment suggest that public infrastructure was a key driver of productivity growth in South Asia. Going forward, higher public infrastructure spending can raise growth, but its benefits depend on how it is financed and managed. Model simulations show that tax financing, concessional lending, or private sector financing through public private partnerships (PPPs) are more advantageous than government borrowing through financial markets because they support growth while containing the impact on public debt. However, the optimal choice also depends on available fiscal space, taxation capacity, implementation risks, and public investment efficiency. To reap the most benefits from higher infrastructure investment, South Asian countries need to manage fiscal risks carefully, including from PPPs and state-owned enterprises, and improve public investment efficiency.
Keywords:
infrastructure investment; tax financing; quality of investment; PPP financing; efficiency gap; multiyear investment planning; Public investment spending; Infrastructure; Capital budget; South Asia; Asia and Pacific; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Austerity and Elections
Mr. Alberto Alesina
,
Gabriele Ciminelli
,
Davide Furceri
, and
Giorgio Saponaro
Conventional wisdom holds that voters punish governments that implement fiscal austerity. Yet, most empirical studies, which rely on ex-post yearly austerity measures, do not find supportive evidence. This paper revisits the issue using action-based, real-time, ex-ante measures of fiscal austerity as well as a new database of changes in vote shares of incumbent parties. The analysis emphasizes the importance of the ‘how’—whether austerity is done via tax hikes or expenditure cuts—and the ‘who’—whether it is carried out by left- vs. right-leaning governments. Our main finding is that tax-based austerity carries large electoral costs, while the effect of expenditure-based consolidations depends on the political-leaning of the government. An austerity package worth 1% of GDP, carried out mostly through tax hikes, reduces the vote share of the leader’s party by about 7%. In contrast, expenditure-based austerity is detrimental for left- but beneficial for right-leaning governments. We also find that the electoral cost of austerity—especially tax hikes—can be contained if it is implemented during good economic times.
Keywords:
austerity package; expenditure cut; yearly austerity; construction of Austerity variable; economy to Austerity; Tax expenditures; Government debt management
Cover IMF Working Papers
Managing Fiscal Risks from State-Owned Enterprises
Ms. Anja Baum
,
Mr. Paulo A Medas
,
Alberto Soler
, and
Mouhamadou Sy
Ensuring that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are efficient and managed prudently is important for economic and social reasons. It is also crucial to contain fiscal risks and reduce the burden on taxpayers from recurrent and large bailouts. Governments need to develop stronger capacity to monitor and mitigate the risks from SOEs. We present a risk tool to benchmark the performance of SOEs relative to their peers and assess their vulnerabilities, including through stress tests. A strategy to mitigate risks requires the right incentives for managers to perform and for government agencies to conduct effective oversight. Incorporating SOEs in overall fiscal targets would promote greater fiscal discipline and transparency.
Keywords:
State-owned enterprises; contingent liabilities; fiscal risks; company c; financial support; SOEs manager; electricity company; negative equity; oversight unit; company level; sectoral strategy; SOEs financials; line ministry; company C; return on assets; Public enterprises; Budget planning and preparation; Public sector; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Us Federal Debt Outlook: Reading the Tea Leaves
Oya Celasun
and
Geoffrey N. Keim
We show that fiscal policies reflecting a primary balance response to higher debt in line with historic experience would significantly increase the likelihood of reaching the debt targets of the U.S. administration in the medium term. Deficits and debt are higher under current budgetary proposals and IMF projections for real activity and interest rates, which do not include a reaction of policies to rising primary deficits. Under the IMF staff's current economic projections, a primary fiscal adjustment of about 3.5 percent of GDP would be needed to achieve a debt level of about 70 percent of GDP in 2020.
Keywords:
debt target; debt outlook; debt level; Federal Government debt; fiscal policy behavior; Fiscal stance; Budget planning and preparation; Real interest rates
Cover IMF Working Papers
Crisis Management and Resolution for a European Banking System
Alessandro Giustiniani
,
Mr. Wim Fonteyne
,
Wouter Bossu
,
Alessandro Gullo
,
Seán Kerr
,
Mr. Daniel C Hardy
, and
Luis Cortavarria-Checkley
This paper proposes an integrated crisis management and resolution framework for the EU's single banking market. It comprises a European Resolution Authority (ERA), armed with the mandate and the tools to deal cost-effectively with failing systemic cross-border banks, and is designed to address many fundamental operational and incentive problems. It also seeks to reduce moral hazard and better protect countries against the risk of twin fiscal-financial crises by detaching banks from government budgets. The ERA would be most effective if it were twinned or combined with a European Deposit Insurance and Resolution Fund
Keywords:
debt target; debt level; Federal Government debt; debt outlook; fiscal policy behavior; Fiscal stance; Budget planning and preparation; Real interest rates
Cover IMF Working Papers
An Analysis of the Underground Economy and its Macroeconomic Consequences
Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
and
Mr. Andrew Feltenstein
This paper develops a dynamic computable general equilibrium model in which optimizing agents evade taxes by operating in the underground economy. The cost to firms of evading taxes is that they find themselves subject to credit rationing from banks. Our model simulations show that in the absence of budgetary flexibility to adjust expenditures, raising tax rates too high drives firms into the underground economy, thereby reducing the tax base. Aggregate investment in the economy is lowered because of credit rationing. Taxes that are too low eliminate the underground economy, but result in unsustainable budget and trade deficits. Thus, the optimal rate of taxation, from a macroeconomic point of view, may lead to some underground activity.
Keywords:
WP; tax rate; credit rationing; Underground economy; capital tax; savings rate; firm's capital; firm capital; implied ownership; macro economy; Informal economy; Government debt management; Tax evasion; Budget planning and preparation