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Business and Economics > Budgeting

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 25 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
A Suggested Medium-Term Fiscal Framework for Guyana
Rina Bhattacharya
and
Do Yeon Park
Guyana is growing rapidly, and fiscal policy plays a critical role in ensuring that the country’s wealth is managed effectively and equitably. The paper analyzes crucial elements of a comprehensive fiscal policy framework, anchored on a medium-term fiscal framework, that would help in balancing several, and sometimes competing, fiscal policy objectives common to natural resource rich developing countries.
Keywords:
Fiscal policy framework; Fiscal rules, Non-renewable resources; Natural Resource Funds; resource wealth; fiscal policy path; Guyana's oil; expenditure growth rule; Fiscal sustainability; Natural resources; Oil production; Global
Cover Policy Papers
2018 Review of the Fund's Capacity Development Strategy
International Monetary Fund
Capacity development (CD) is one of the Fund’s three core activities and has grown in importance in recent years. It supports member countries’ efforts to build the institutions and capacity necessary to formulate and implement sound economic policies, thereby complementing the Fund’s surveillance and lending mandates. Member countries, partners, and external commentators give the Fund high marks for the quality of its CD. At the same time, efforts need to continue to strengthen Fund CD to serve members’ current and evolving needs. The 2018 CD Strategy Review examines progress under the Fund’s 2013 CD Strategy and proposes a CD strategy for the next five years. It notes substantial progress in addressing the 2013 recommendations, which included strengthening the CD governance structure, enhancing the prioritization processes, clarifying the funding model, strengthening monitoring and evaluation, promoting greater integration of TA and training, exploiting new technologies for delivery, and leveraging CD as outreach. However, background work for this review also pointed to the need to strengthen the CD framework further. The review builds upon the existing CD strategy, focusing on two mutually reinforcing objectives. First, the impact of Fund CD needs to be increased by further strengthening integration with the Fund’s policy advice and lending operations, while continuing to make progress in framing CD through comprehensive strategies tailored to each member’s needs, capacity, and conditions, focusing on implementation and outcomes. Stronger coordination between CD and the Fund’s other core functions will better connect CD with countries’ risks and vulnerabilities and ensure surveillance and lending integrate lessons from CD more effectively. Second, the efficiency of CD needs to be increased by improving CD processes and systems. This will enhance transparency and strengthen the basis for strategic decision making. Five specific areas of recommendations support the strategy. Likewise, they mitigate institutional risks stemming from the Fund’s CD activities. They include clearer roles and responsibilities for key internal and external stakeholders in the CD process; continued strengthening of prioritization and monitoring; better tailoring and modernization of CD delivery with a focus on implementation of TA recommendations; greater internal consultation and sharing of CD information; and further progress in external coordination, communication, and dissemination of information (Annex I).
Keywords:
PP; director; CD activity; CD policy; leverage CD; evaluation; CD policy statement; CD process; CD delivery; Communications in revenue administration; Budget planning and preparation; Development strategy; Revenue administration transparency and accountability; Capacity utilization; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Working Papers
Governments and Promised Fiscal Consolidations: Do They Mean What They Say?
Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
,
João Tovar Jalles
,
Mr. Carlos Mulas-Granados
, and
Michela Schena
This paper analyses the causes and consequences of fiscal consolidation promise gaps, defined as the distance between planned fiscal adjustments and actual consolidations. Using 74 consolidation episodes derived from the narrative approach in 17 advanced economies during 1978 – 2015, the paper shows that promise gaps were sizeable (about 0.3 percent of GDP per year, or 1.1 percent of GDP during an average fiscal adjustment episode). Both economic and political factors explain the gaps: for example, greater electoral proximity, stronger political cohesion and higher accountability were all associated with smaller promise gaps. Finally, governments which delivered on their fiscal consolidation plans were rewarded by financial markets and not penalized by voters.
Keywords:
WP; promise gap; political economy; fiscal consolidation; budget plan; budget implementation; narrative approach; elections; fractionalization; accountability; government popularity; government effectiveness; financial market indicator; B. measuring Consolidation Promise Gaps; market's reaction; Output gap; Budget planning and preparation; GDP measurement
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses strengthening of fiscal policy and fiscal frameworks in Qatar. It proposes ways to ensure that sustainable fiscal policy is maintained in the medium to long term in Qatar. Fiscal policy remains sustainable, but given the large drop in oil prices, revenue-raising and expenditure-containing measures need to be considered to ensure intergenerational equity. Measures aimed at containing current spending, prioritizing capital expenditure, and raising nonhydrocarbon revenues would help bring fiscal policy back to consistency with intergenerational equity. Strengthening fiscal frameworks would help achieve the desirable fiscal policies.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Qatar; productivity; revenue; labor productivity; country inflation variable; inflation acceleration; double digit inflation; migration rate; price inflation; government expenditure; lower-than-average productivity; world inflation; growth performance; credit growth; money growth trigger inflation; expenditure-containing measure; Inflation; Total factor productivity; Budget planning and preparation; Labor productivity; Human capital; Global; North Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Structural Balance Targeting and Output Gap Uncertainty
Eugen Tereanu
,
Ms. Anita Tuladhar
, and
Mr. Alejandro Simone
Potential output estimation plays a crucial role in conducting fiscal policy based on structural balances. Difficulties in estimating potential output could lead to an erroneous policy stance with a consequent impact on growth. This paper analyzes historical data on revisions of actual and potential growth in the European Union and the implication of these revisions for the measurement of fiscal effort using the cyclically-adjusted primary balance (CAPB). It finds that revisions in output gap estimates were large, at almost 1½ percent of potential GDP on average. Revisions in potential GDP also contributed significantly to revisions in the estimated CAPB, especially during the crisis years. Given these findings and historical correlations, it proposes an indicative rule of thumb for reducing errors in the measurement of fiscal effort by factoring in that about 30 percent of revisions in actual growth capture changes in potential growth. In other words, the standard advice of “letting automatic stabilizers operate fully” in response to a positive/negative growth shocks likely implies a strengthening/weakening of the structural position.
Keywords:
WP; output gap uncertainty; potential GDP; output gap revision; cyclically-adjusted primary balance; structural balance; cyclically adjusted balance; fiscal policy; output gap error; potential output gap; output gap estimate; Output gap; Potential output; Fiscal stance; Budget planning and preparation; Production growth; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Bulgaria’s EU Funds Absorption: Maximizing the Potential!
Iana Paliova
and
Mr. Tonny Lybek
This paper focuses on EU structural and cohesion funds assistance to Bulgaria during the 2007–13 program period. Initial weaknesses resulted in a low absorption rate, which was mitigated by increasing advance payments; applying electronic application and reporting procedures; simplifying and unifying tender processes; and strengthening the role of international financial institutions and banks in project preparation, evaluation and monitoring. The possible impact on growth and potential output is briefly discussed, while the risks of improper absorption are acknowledged. Valuable lessons have been learned, but it is recommended that additional steps be taken for the next program period 2014–20.
Keywords:
WP; EU funds; managing authorities; EU budget; EU institution; EU member states; Bulgaria; EU structural and cohesion funds; potential growth; accession funds; OP EU; EU financing; Auditing; Budget planning and preparation; Infrastructure; Potential output; Global; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Trinidad and Tobago: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues Paper focuses on the Heritage and Stabilization Fund (HSF) and development in the energy sector in Trinidad and Tobago. The HSF, established in 2007, is an important national asset, which has broad-based political and social support. The HSF has developed a strong record since its creation. It has performed well as measured by the accumulation of savings, the portfolio return, and adherence to the Santiago Principles for transparency and governance. This is particularly commendable given global and domestic financial crises.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; price; HSF Board; natural gas; LNG; revenue; HSF governance structure; HSF portfolio; HSF saving; HSF assets; HSF balance; LNG export; natural gas production; market development; gas reserve; processing train; energy revenue; Energy pricing; Natural gas sector; Oil; Oil prices; Energy sector; Global; Europe; Asia and Pacific; HSF portfolio size; crude oil; HSF portfolio performance; natural gas price indices; Energy prices; Oil production; Caribbean
Cover Policy Papers
Macroeconomic and Operational Challenges in Countries in Fragile Situations
International Monetary Fund
There is broad recognition that countries in fragile situations face unique challenges. While fragility may afflict countries at different levels of income and capacity, common features of fragile states are institutions that are seen to be weak and lack legitimacy, as well as a fractious political setting, which in turn elevates the risk of violence. Fragilities impose large costs and hardships on local populations that can spill over to neighboring countries—directly through conflict, crime, and disease, but also through economic linkages. Considering these unique challenges, the international community is developing forms of engagement that stress peacebuilding, social cohesion, and statebuilding. They incorporate recognition of the need for sustained engagement, a willingness to take calculated risks in uncertain environments, fuller attention to the political economy of reforms and capacity constraints, and coordination of donor efforts.
Keywords:
PP; fragile state; Fund engagement; Fund program engagement; recipient country authorities; Fund mission chief
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iraq: First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion, Waiver of Applicability, and Rephasing of Access
International Monetary Fund
The authorities view the program as providing a valuable anchor for their macroeconomic policies during a period of high economic and political uncertainty, and providing access to budget financing. The discussions for this review were delayed owing to lengthening data lags resulting from the attacks on the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI). With the projected increase in oil production and exports in the coming years, Iraq will be able to strengthen its fiscal and external positions and speed up the rebuilding of its institutions and infrastructure.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; end-June performance criterion; grants waiver; waiver; government; preparation process; supervisory role; executive board's discussion; Oil prices; Budget planning and preparation; Oil production; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Bank Efficiency amid Foreign Entry: Evidence from the Central American Region
Torsten Wezel
This paper investigates the efficiency of domestic and foreign banks in the Central American region during 2002-07. Using two main empirical approaches, Data Envelopment Analysis and Stochastic Frontier Analysis, the paper finds that foreign banks are not necessarily more efficient than their domestic counterparts. If anything, the regional banks that were acquired by global banks in a wave of acquisitions during 2005-07 can keep up with the local institutions. The efficiency of these acquired banks, however, is shown to have dropped during the acquisition year, recovering only slightly thereafter. Finally, it is important to account for the environment in which banks operate, as country-, sector- and firm-specific characteristics are found to have a considerable influence on bank efficiency.
Keywords:
WP; technical efficiency; percentage; takeover