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Manabu Nose
How could the GovTech improve budget processes and execution efficiency? Could the GovTech strengthen redistributive function of public expenditure? Based on an event-study method, this paper finds that the introduction of digital budget payments and e-procurement could significantly enhance budget transparency and help expand the coverage of social assistance to reach the most vulnerable population. Exploiting staggered adoption of digital budget payments, a synthetic control regression identifies meaningful increase in pre-tax income shares among the bottom 50th percentile and female workers, especially for emerging market and developing countries, with effects materializing gradually over 10-year period. The paper delves into the potential mechanism driving these equity benefits, highlighting the reduction in business informality as a primary channel. However, the paper emphasizes that the mere adoption of GovTech strategies or digital technologies is insufficient to unlock its full potential. The outcomes are intricately linked to supporting policies, regulations, organizational and system integration, and robust digital connectivity. The paper underscores that inter-agency coordination facilitated by a dedicated GovTech institution emerges as a critical factor for reaping both efficiency and equity gains from GovTech initiatives.
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
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International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
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International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
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International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
This technical assistance report on Sri Lanka discusses the Governance Diagnostic Assessment. In recent years, a confluence of shocks and policy missteps led to a deep economic and governance crisis. Sri Lanka continues to face severe economic, social and governance challenges. The authorities have requested IMF assistance to analyse governance weaknesses and corruption vulnerabilities that are macro-critical in their own right and stand in the way of achieving the objectives of the reform program. The report highlights immediate and short-term measures to address key corruption issues, as well as structural reforms that require more time and resources but are essential to strengthen governance and initiate lasting change. The recommendations are designed as a coherent approach to improving governance through a focus on: clarity of authority and responsibility for core functions; financial and operational independence of essential accountability and law enforcement institutions; transparency in government practices and performance, especially relating to the planning, spending, and accounting for the use of public funds and assets; inclusive, accessible, and rule-based means to enforce private agreements and challenge official behaviour; and efficient mechanisms for making information public and holding organizations and individuals to account for their performance and behaviour.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents the Republic of Moldova’s Third Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility and the Extended Fund Facility Arrangements, and Request for a Waiver for Nonobservance of Performance Criterion. As the outlook is subject to high uncertainty, near-term priorities should remain focused on mitigating the impact of the war, ensuring energy security, adapting contingency plans to evolving risks, and maintaining an appropriate policy mix. Once near-term pressures from the crises subside, the authorities appropriately plan to reorient spending toward supporting the recovery. Moldova remains in a precarious position. Russia’s war in Ukraine and its proximity to Moldova continue to fuel security concerns, while the social fabric remains fragile and stretched by high food and energy prices. Prudent use of contingency plans has helped reduce energy security risks and supported the most vulnerable through the cost-of-living crisis. Continued strong reform implementation—supported by the program—helps build solid foundations for sustainable long-term development.
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This technical assistance report on Zambia discusses the governance and anti-corruption assessment. Acknowledging the need to address corruption, strengthen governance and the rule of law, the President and authorities of Zambia have announced a series of important initiatives. Consistently high fiscal deficits, inefficient public investment and weak controls on spending led to Zambia accumulating large fiscal and external imbalances. In the challenging environment, the authorities sought the IMF’s assistance to analyse governance weaknesses and corruption vulnerabilities and make specific, country-tailored and feasible recommendations to address governance and corruption risks in wide-ranging areas. The report identifies on near-term reform steps and structural policy measures that require more time and resources but are necessary for sustainable change. All recommendations coming out of the diagnostic shall contribute to the formulation of governance and anticorruption policies and programs, improvement of the legal and institutional frameworks, as well as governance and anti-corruption reform measures agreed to in the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement for Zambia.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on the Republic of Kazakhstan focuses on revisiting trend output growth. Trend growth in Kazakhstan has decreased to 2–3 percent due to declining contributions of labor and total factor productivity (TFP). Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may have reduced the long-term trend GDP level, but it is unlikely to have affected trend GDP growth. Structural reforms to reduce the state footprint in the economy, strengthen public and corporate governance, diversify the economy and exports away from extractive sectors, and promote technological change, are critical to increase future trend GDP growth. The monthly trend-cycle decomposition developed in this Selected Issues Paper may help expand the information set available to policymakers when taking base rate policy decisions. COVID-19 has depressed both trend level and growth in the short term through headwinds to labor, capital, and TFP. It could also affect long-term trend growth through the destruction of human capital, but it is too early to assess the statistical significance of this effect. In any case, structural reforms will be needed to increase trend growth. Priorities include reducing the state footprint, strengthening public and corporate governance, and economic and trade diversification. Increasing the share of investment, including foreign direct investment in nonextractive industries should promote R&D, innovation, and higher TFP.
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
Despite having legal and institutional frameworks largely in place, Moldova continues to suffer from significant corruption and governance vulnerabilities. These are fairly pronounced in the areas of rule of law, anti-corruption, anti-money laundering and combatting the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT), and SOE governance, while other areas assessed for purposes of this report (PFM, tax administration, central bank governance and financial sector oversight) presented some good progress in mitigating such vulnerabilities.
International Monetary Fund
This paper reports on the Fund’s income position for FY 2020 following the closing of the Fund’s accounts for the financial year and completion of the external audit. Net operational income was about SDR 1.4 billion, slightly higher than estimated in the April supplement, mainly reflecting higher investment income. However, the unrealized pension-related adjustment in FY 2020, stemming mainly from the actuarial remeasurement of staff retirement plan assets and liabilities, was larger than previously estimated and more than offset the Fund’s net operational income, contributing to an overall net loss of about SDR 1.4 billion for the year.
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews the Fund’s income position for FY 2020 and FY 2021–22. It updates the April 2019 projections and proposes decisions for the current year. The paper also includes a proposed decision to set the margin for the rate of charge for financial years 2021 and 2022. Projections of the Fund’s income are subject to larger than normal uncertainties related to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on key assumptions. For FY 2020, these uncertainties relate mainly to the discount rate used to measure the Fund’s retirement plan obligations at April 30, 2020 and to the full year asset returns on the retirement plan and the Endowment Subaccount (EA), given the recent volatility in financial markets. For FY 2021–22, a key additional uncertainty is the scale of new lending associated with the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic.