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Business and Economics > Budgeting

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Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Colombia: Technical Assistance Report-Scoping Mission to Develop Macroeconomic Forecasting Capacity at the Autonomous Committee for the Fiscal Rule (CARF)
International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development
In response to a request from the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, staff from the IMF´s Institute for Capacity Development (ICD) conducted diagnostic work and provided insights to enhance the Autonomous Committee for the Fiscal Rule (CARF)'s technical capacity. This report emphasizes a comprehensive action plan agreed with CARF to develop and institutionalize a new macroeconomic framework using ICD´s Comprehensive Adaptive Expectations Model, integrated with CARF's tools. Anticipated to boost CARF's ability in generating accurate macroeconomic projections and assessments, this macroeconomic framework supports Colombia's policy development and implementation. The plan includes a two-year timetable with virtual engagements and in-person missions, aiming to transfer knowledge and build capacity among CARF's economists.
Keywords:
Evaluation and Selection; Forecasting and Other Model Applications; Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; General Macroeconomic Policy; Fiscal Policy; Planning Models; Planning Policy; Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development; Technical Assistance; Capacity Development; High Level Summary; Fiscal Council; Independent Fiscal Institution.; CARF team; CARF staff; satellite model; CARF authorities; staff turnover; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Fiscal rules; Medium-term budget frameworks
Cover Policy Papers
Review of the Fund’s Income Position for FY 2024 and FY 2025-2026
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
This paper updates the projections of the Fund’s income position for FY 2024 and FY 2025-2026 and proposes related decisions for the current and the following financial years. The paper also includes a proposed decision to keep the margin for the rate of charge unchanged until completion of the review of surcharges, but until no later than end FY 2025, at which time the Board would set the margin for the rest of FY 2025 and FY 2026. The Fund’s overall net income for FY 2024 is projected at about SDR 4.4 billion after taking into account pension-related remeasurement gain and estimated retained investment income of the Endowment Account.
Keywords:
Income Position; Lending Income; Investment Income; Expenditures; Margin for the Rate of Charge; Reserve Accumulation; Precautionary Balances; Pension; Provisioning; Payout; Reimbursement; Remeasurement; Surcharges; outlook factor; GRA FY; FY 2024; review of surcharge; market condition; transparency policy; Income; SDR interest rate; Budget planning and preparation; Credit; Discount rates; Global
Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Manage Fiscal Risks from Subnational Governments
Mr. Sandeep Saxena
Subnational governments can create sizable fiscal risks for central governments. In addition to impacting service delivery at the grassroots level, unsustainable subnational finances can be a continuous drain on central resources. The need for stronger public financial management systems and capacities to analyze and manage risks at the subnational government level cannot be overemphasized. Central governments need to develop sound institutional mechanisms to systematically monitor the health of subnational finances to be able to proactively manage associated risks. This How to Note provides a framework for central governments that seek to assess and manage fiscal risks stemming from weak subnational finances. It analyzes the sources of subnational finance vulnerabilities and argues that central governments would benefit from putting in place the following: (1) a stronger regulatory framework, (2) improved fiscal reporting, and (3) enhanced central oversight. The lessons distilled from the international experience are particularly useful for developing economies where the management of risks can be improved.
Keywords:
fiscal risks; contingent liabilities; subnational debt; public financial management (PFM); fiscal institutions; public debt; fiscal policy; budget planning; subnational finances; Subnational government; Subnational contingent liabilities; national government; sound Subnational PFM system; borrowing regulation; Budget planning and preparation; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Authorities’ Fiscal Forecasts in Latin America: Are They Optimistic?
Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov
,
Mr. Luca A Ricci
,
Alejandro M. Werner
, and
Rene Zamarripa
Do governments in Latin America tend to be optimistic when preparing budgetary projections? We address this question by constructing a novel dataset of the authorities’ fiscal forecasts in six Latin American economies using data from annual budget documents over the period 2000-2018. In turn, we compare such forecasts with the outturns reported in the corresponding budget documents of the following years to understand the evolution of fiscal forecast errors. Our findings suggest that: (i) for most countries, there is no general optimistic bias in the forecasts for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio (though there may be for the components); (ii) fiscal forecasts have improved for some countries over time, albeit they have worsened for others; (iii) in terms of drivers, we show that forecast errors for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio are positively correlated with GDP growth and terms of trade changes and negatively with GDP deflator surprises; (iv) forecast errors for public debt-to-GDP ratios are negatively associated with surprises to GDP growth; (v) lastly, budget balance rules seem to help contain the size of the fiscal forecast errors.
Keywords:
forecast bias; budget balance rule; GDP ratio; expenditure rule; revenue-to-GDP ratio; Fiscal stance; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal rules; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Trinidad and Tobago: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the impact of adjusting to commodity shocks in Trinidad and Tobago. With commodity resources being nonrenewable, developing a long-term strategy can help avoid unsustainable policies and ensure greater intergenerational equity. Recent country experiences highlight the benefits of precautionary buffers in smoothing fiscal adjustment process. Prudent and countercyclical fiscal policy implementation, structural reforms, and economic diversification can help contain the impact of commodity price booms and busts. Strong fiscal institutions are needed to help achieve and sustain the fiscal adjustment. Different adjustment strategies may be feasible depending on the needed size of the adjustment and country-specific circumstances. Trinidad and Tobago have faced several years of weak or negative growth on the back of terms-of-trade and energy supply shocks. A well-designed fiscal framework that considers potential uncertainties associated with commodity cycles can help improve fiscal management. Countercyclical policy implementation would help smooth the impact of commodity-induced sharp fluctuations in the economy.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; fund; crime-control program; commodity; crime reduction; property crime; crime management system; crime in Trinidad and Tobago; Commodity prices; Fiscal consolidation; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Colombia: Fiscal Transparency Evaluation
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This fiscal transparency evaluation (FTE) report assesses fiscal transparency practices in Colombia against the first three pillars of the IMF’s Fiscal Transparency Code. Fiscal forecasting and budgeting—Pillar II—is the strongest area in Colombia’s FTE. Half of the related indicators are advanced, mostly in the areas of: (1) orderliness of the legislative process and the adequacy of powers and information available to Congress; (2) credibility of economic and fiscal forecasts; and (3) medium-term forecasts and policy orientation. Fiscal reporting—Pillar I—and fiscal risk analysis and management—Pillar III—also reveal clear strengths. Fiscal reporting practices are advanced in terms of the coverage of fiscal institutions in fiscal reports and timeliness of annual financial statements.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; annual budget; central government; balance sheet; debt management; fiscal policy; real GDP; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal risks; Financial statements; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Europe
Cover Fiscal Transparency Handbook (2018)
Fiscal Transparency Handbook (2018)
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Abstract

The IMF’s Fiscal Transparency Code is the international standard for disclosure of information about public finances and is the centerpiece of the global architecture on fiscal transparency. The Fiscal Transparency Handbook (2018) provides detailed guidance on the implementation of the new Fiscal Transparency Code, which was approved by the IMF Board in 2014. It explains why each principle of the Code is important and describes current trends in implementation of the principles, noting relevant international standards as well. Selected country examples are also provided.

Keywords:
M&G; IMF Code; balance sheet; government; transparency; IMF's Fiscal Transparency Code
Cover IMF Working Papers
Enforcing Public-Private Partnership Contract: How do Fiscal Institutions Matter?
Manabu Nose
Public-private partnerships (PPPs) have increased rapidly in emerging and developing countries, creating both opportunities and fiscal challenges. One of the main challenges is that while governments have increased commitments in guarantees and direct subsidies to promote PPPs, contractual disputes remain high with significant costs. This paper examines how fiscal institutions affect the selection of PPP contracts and the probability of contract disputes using about 6,000 PPP contract-level data. The analysis shows that larger government financing needs, lower budget transparency and bureaucratic efficiency are associated with higher probability for governments to offer guarantees. Propensity score matching results show that disputes are more common for guaranteed contracts due to adverse selection and contingent liability effects. PPP management quality and budget transparency are found to be key determinants for a longer survival of PPPs.
Keywords:
WP; adverse selection; capital stock; Public-private partnerships; public investment management; fiscal risk; propensity score matching; dispute risk; PPP contract; drive government decision; PIM quality index; government involvement; government financing; dispute case; management quality; indebted government; PPP investment; provision of guarantee; PPP project; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal risks; Contingent liabilities; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Strengthen the Management of Government Guarantees
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This note highlights commonly observed weaknesses in the management of government guarantees, good practices, and measures governments could take to strengthen: (i) the evaluation of guarantee proposals; (ii) the quantification of risks arising from guarantees and their mitigation; and (iii) the budgeting, accounting, monitoring, and disclosure of guarantees.
Keywords:
FADHTN; HTN; government guarantee; guarantee fee rate; guarantee portfolio; credit guarantee; credit rating; guarantee claim; guarantee proposal; one-of guarantee; reserve fund; guarantee seeker; Contingent liabilities; Government liabilities; Budget planning and preparation; Loans; Africa; Global
Cover IEO Annual Report 2012
IEO Annual Report 2012
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

This Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) Annual Report 2012 presents an overview of overall developments in FY2012. In FY2012, the IEO expended approximately 97 percent of its total budgetary resources, including the approved budget amount and the resources carried forward from FY2011 as authorized. Vacancies amounted to about one and one-half staff years over the course of the financial year. This level of vacancies is within the range of what could be expected in a small organization with structural difficulties in recruitment and retention.

Keywords:
IEOR; IEO; evaluation; IEO expenditure; IMF research; IEO evaluation; IMF surveillance; Board-endorsed IEO recommendation; IMF performance; Budget planning and preparation; Macrofinancial linkages; International reserves; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Central America; Africa; Caribbean; IEO recommendation