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Business and Economics > Budgeting

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Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Mongolia: Technical Assistance Report-Macroeconomic Framework Technical Assistance: Scoping Mission
International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development
Further to Mongolia’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) request, an assessment mission was carried out from May 24 to June 2, 2023. The mission reviewed the needs, capacity and constraints for the development of institutional macroeconomic forecasting capacity at the Financial and Fiscal Research Department (FFRD). Notably, despite FFRD’s ambitious goals in fiscal policymaking, a comprehensive macroeconomic framework for analysis, forecasting, and assessing fiscal policy's macroeconomic impact is not yet in place. The action plan and logical framework is centered around capacity development and customization of the Comprehensive Adaptive Expectations Model (CAEM) to the Mongolia economy. This note summarizes the main findings and action plan agreed on for the project.
Keywords:
Macroeconomic Framework; Forecasting and Policy Analysis; Comprehensive Adaptive Expectations Model (CAEM); Mongolia.; IMF mission team; FFRD officer; Mongolia's Ministry of Finance; FFRD staff monitor; data management practice; macroeconomic projection tool; Macro-fiscal framework; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Budget planning and preparation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kenya: Seventh and Eighth Reviews Under the Extended Fund Facility and Extended Credit Facility Arrangements, Requests for Reduction of Access, Augmentation and Rephasing of Access Under the Arrangements, Modifications of Performance Criteria, Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Review Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kenya
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper analyzes Kenya’s Seventh and Eighth Reviews under the Extended Fund Facility and Extended Credit Facility Arrangements, Requests for Reduction of Access, Augmentation and Rephasing of Access under the Arrangements, Modifications of Performance Criteria, Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility Arrangement. Resolution of the exceptional external financing pressure earlier this year has revived market confidence, aided stabilization of the shilling, and enabled a faster buildup of foreign exchange reserves. However, large revenue shortfalls in FY2023/24 and pushback against revenue measures owing to governance concerns pose a challenge to the ongoing fiscal consolidation efforts. The Kenyan authorities face a difficult balancing act of boosting domestic revenues to protect critical spending in priority areas while meeting heavy debt service obligations. Delivering on this would call for improving governance and transparency to restore public trust in the effective use of public resources. Timely identification and deployment of fiscal contingency measures, as needed, maintaining prudent policies, recalibration of access, and a tailored capacity development strategy to help deliver on the reform agenda could somewhat help mitigate the elevated enterprise risks, including financial risks to the IMF. Success in climate finance mobilization efforts presents an upside to investments in climate resilience.
Keywords:
ECF arrangement; government initiative; implementation framework; Mombasa climate change action plan; ECF review; Debt sustainability analysis; Debt sustainability; Global; Africa
Cover Departmental Papers
Upgrading Fiscal Frameworks in Asia-Pacific
Enrique Flores
,
Pranav Gupta
,
Yinqiu Lu
,
Paulo A Medas
,
Dinar Prihardini
,
Hoda Selim
,
Weining Xin
, and
Masafumi Yabara
This paper seeks to guide the reform of fiscal frameworks in Asia-Pacific in the context of calls for a more active fiscal policy in a shock-prone world. It highlights that the cost of fiscal support is large and that fiscal frameworks, including fiscal rules, are being put to the test given the sharp increase in debt, high interest and weaker growth prospects. The stress is only compounded by long-term challenges like aging populations, climate change and the need to deliver on the sustainable development goals. In this context, it is timely to review the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Asia-Pacific and seek for ways to strengthen fiscal frameworks. After the global financial crisis, fiscal policy in Asia-Pacific became more countercylical and stronger than in other regions—especially in advanced economies. The paper shows that the degree of countercyclicality has been asymetric, with larger responses during periods of weak growth, and in particular in response to large shocks—the global financial crisis and the pandemic. It highlights that responses to the pandemic were large and used a wide range of tools, and how fiscal and monetary policy complemented each as they responded to large shocks. It looks into the deterioration of debt dynamics in Asia-Pacific, as public debt has been rising persistently across most countries driven by declining growth and rising deficits—particualrly after the global financial crisis for advanced economies and after the pandemic for emerging market and low income countries. The paper reviews fiscal frameworks across Asia-Pacific, including the use of fiscal rules, medium-term fiscal frameworks, and fiscal councils. It describes the characteristics of fiscal rules, which usually focus on debt and budget balances and are set by law but tend to lack well-specified enforcement mechanism or escape clauses. It highlights that compliance with the rules has worsened following the pandemic as—in contrast with the outturns before the pandemic--Asia-Pacific countries tend to show larger deviations relative to other regions. It also shows that despite the increase adoption of medium-term fiscal frameworks in Asia-Pacific forward guidance has been hampered by the lack of binding targets and ex-post analysis. Moreover, they do not seem to have resulted in better macro-fiscal forecast in part due to weak capacity and enforcement, lack of integration with the annual budget, and exposure to shocks—with risk analysis mostly limited to qualitative discussions. Proposed reforms seek to implement a comprehensive, risk-based approach to public finances. They focus on strengthening the medium-term orientation of fiscal policy through credible medium-term fiscal plans, fiscal rules linked to the medium-term strategy and the annual budgets, and a stronger reliance on fiscal councils. They also emphasize the need for a broader view of the public sector as fiscal policy is being conducted through multiple channels, which requires assessing and managing vulnerabilities and a significant improvement in fiscal statistics. They also address aging and climate change by focusing on assessing large intergenerational trade-offs, reporting on long-term debt dynamics, and on green medium-term fiscal frameworks that incorporate the effects of climate change and climate policies.
Keywords:
Fiscal Rules Fiscal Frameworks Medium-term Fiscal Frameworks Public Debt Sustainability automatic stabilizers Climate Change Population Aging; Asia-Pacific country; Asia-Pacific economy; Asia-Pacific region; IMF country team; SRDSF country; Fiscal rules; Fiscal governance; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Asia and Pacific; Global; Pacific Islands
Cover Policy Papers
Review of The Fund’s Capacity Development Strategy—Background Papers
International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development
This supplement includes five background papers and provides background information on various aspects of capacity development (CD) for the main Board paper, Review of the Fund’s Capacity Development Strategy—Towards a More Flexible, Integrated, and Tailored Model. It is divided into five sections, each consisting of a different background paper. The five sections cover (1) CD Delivery Modalities; (2) Evaluation and Impact; (3) Regional Capacity Development Centers and Field Presence; (4) HR Policies; and (5) Mapping the Fund’s Position vis-à-vis Other CD Providers.
Keywords:
Capacity Development; Technical Assistance; Training; Institution; Priorities; Evaluation; Impact; Field Presence; Regional Capacity Development Training Center; CD Strategy Review; CD department; CD provider; delivery modality; CD staffing model; RCDC CD Delivery; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Comparative advantage; Training and development in revenue administration; Global; South America; Asia and Pacific; Sub-Saharan Africa; Maghreb
Cover International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2023
International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2023
Committed to Collaboration
International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department

Abstract

The 2023 IMF Annual Report highlights the IMF’s work to support its members to address successive shocks, including Russia’s war on Ukraine, inflation, debt vulnerabilities, inequality food insecurity, geoeconomic fragmentation, climate change, and digitalization. In FY 2023, the Fund continued to support its members in our three core areas: 1) Economic surveillance: 126 country health checks completed.2) Lending: $74 billion to 36 countries, including about $11 billion to 21 low-income countries, for a total of $294 billion to 96 countries since the start of the pandemic. 3) Capacity development: $337 million for hands-on technical advice, policy-oriented training, and peer learning. The report is also available in Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Japanese, Portuguese, Russian, and Spanish. Note: The 2023 IMF Annual Report covers the activities of the Executive Board and IMF management and staff during the financial year May 1, 2022, through April 30, 2023, and in some cases more recently. Background: The Annual Report website includes the IMF’s financial statements for FY 2023 and other background documentation. The Annual Report and the financial statements are also available online at www.imfbookstore.org or www.elibrary.IMF.org

Keywords:
inflation; debt vulnerabilities; inequality; food insecurity; geoeconomic fragmentation; climate change; digitalization; capacity development; lending; economic surveillance; Deputy managing director; IMF organization chart; boards of governors of the bank; Joint Ministerial Committee of the boards of governors; IMF photo; upper-credit-tranche IMF financing; IMF secretariat; IMF CPI database; IMF liquidity support; full-fedged IMF program; IMF surveillance activity; Training and development in revenue administration; Budget planning and preparation; External audit; Balance of payments need; Global; Asia and Pacific; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kenya: Fifth Reviews Under the Extended Fund Facility and Extended Credit Facility Arrangements and Request for a 20-Month Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, Requests for Extension, Rephasing, and Augmentation of Access, Modification of a Performance Criterion, Waiver of Applicability for Performance Criteria and Waiver of Nonobservance for a Performance Criterion, and Monetary Policy Consultation Clause-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kenya
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Kenya’s Fifth Reviews under the Extended Fund Facility and Extended Credit Facility Arrangements and Request for a 20-month Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), Requests for Extension, Rephasing, and Augmentation of Access, Modification of a Performance Criterion, Waiver of Applicability for Performance Criteria and Waiver of Nonobservance for a Performance Criterion, and Monetary Policy Consultation Clause. Key policy priorities of the program include reducing debt vulnerabilities through multi-year fiscal consolidation efforts. This will be done through raising tax revenues and rationalizing spending, while protecting priority social and developmental spending. A proactive monetary policy stance is also part of a mutually reinforcing prudent set of policies. The reforms under the RSF program are expected to advance Kenya’s already strong record of accomplishment at addressing climate-related challenges. These reforms will advance efforts to incorporate climate risks into fiscal planning and the investment framework, reduce emissions through carbon pricing, enhance Kenya’s existing frameworks to mobilize climate finance; and strengthen disaster risk reduction and management.
Keywords:
Kenyan authorities; tax shortfall; apportionment ratio; authorities' effort; inflation expectation; trade tax; tax package; agriculture Project; Climate finance; Climate change; Debt sustainability analysis; Global; East Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kenya: Fourth Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility and under the Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility, and Requests for Augmentation of Access under the Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility, and Modifications of Quantitative Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kenya
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Kenya is navigating a turbulent global backdrop marked by volatile commodity prices, slowing growth in key trading partners, and constrained frontier market access to international capital markets. At home, a smooth transition following the August elections demonstrated Kenya’s increasing institutional strengths, while the multi-season drought has worsened food insecurity for vulnerable populations in arid and semi-arid regions and kept food prices elevated. Strong tax overperformance in FY2021/22 helped cushion some of these shocks, and the administration of President Ruto eliminated petrol subsidies in their first week in office. Inflation has breached the central bank (CBK) target band, and monetary policy has been tightened by 175 basis points this year. Foreign reserves are adequate, but lower than previously projected given shortfalls in FY2021/22 external public commercial and project financing, spending cuts in FY2022/23 also extending to externally-financed projects, and the prospects for continued challenging market conditions for frontier economies into 2023.
Keywords:
monetary policy stance; Kenyan authorities; policy objective; steadfast effort; target band; reinforcing Monetary; Debt sustainability analysis; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Vietnam: Technical Assistance Report on Government Finance Statistics Mission (February 2022-April 2022)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This technical assistance (TA) mission on Government Finance Statistics (GFS) was conducted remotely during February 2022-April 2022. The main purpose of the mission was to review the progress made by the authorities in implementing previous TA recommendations and provide further support to strengthen the compilation and dissemination of GFS in line with international standards set out in the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014).
Keywords:
Government Finance Statistics Public Financial Management (PFM) Budget Planning and Preparation Expenditure Financial Statements; GFS data; government finance statistics yearbook; Vietnam State treasury; receipt transaction; financial asset transaction; Government finance statistics; Budget planning and preparation
Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Manage Fiscal Risks from Subnational Governments
Mr. Sandeep Saxena
Subnational governments can create sizable fiscal risks for central governments. In addition to impacting service delivery at the grassroots level, unsustainable subnational finances can be a continuous drain on central resources. The need for stronger public financial management systems and capacities to analyze and manage risks at the subnational government level cannot be overemphasized. Central governments need to develop sound institutional mechanisms to systematically monitor the health of subnational finances to be able to proactively manage associated risks. This How to Note provides a framework for central governments that seek to assess and manage fiscal risks stemming from weak subnational finances. It analyzes the sources of subnational finance vulnerabilities and argues that central governments would benefit from putting in place the following: (1) a stronger regulatory framework, (2) improved fiscal reporting, and (3) enhanced central oversight. The lessons distilled from the international experience are particularly useful for developing economies where the management of risks can be improved.
Keywords:
fiscal risks; contingent liabilities; subnational debt; public financial management (PFM); fiscal institutions; public debt; fiscal policy; budget planning; subnational finances; Subnational government; Subnational contingent liabilities; national government; sound Subnational PFM system; borrowing regulation; Budget planning and preparation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
The Gambia: First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Financing Assurances Review, and Request for Augmentation of Access and a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for The Gambia
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The IMF Executive Board approved, on March 23, 2020, a 39-month Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement in the amount of SDR 35 million (56.3 percent of quota) for The Gambia. The Gambia benefited from a Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) disbursement of SDR 15.55 million (25 percent of quota) approved on April 15, 2020 and is receiving debt service relief under the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT) expected to total SDR 7.9 million (SDR 4.2 million of which has already been approved), to help meet heightened balance-of-payments and fiscal financing needs due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. While indicators point to a domestic weakening of the pandemic, the authorities are seeking an ECF augmentation of SDR 20 million (32.15 percent of quota) to meet balance-of-payments needs arising from fiscal measures to stimulate the economic recovery in 2021, strengthen public health preparedness, increase social spending to mitigate the effects of the pandemic. They are also requesting a waiver of nonobservance of a continuous performance criterion (a zero ceiling) on new external payment arrears of the central government.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; monetary policy stance; authorities well; Executive Board discussion; Gambian authorities; debt service deferral