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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Congo’s Requests for an Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and an Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The ECF-supported program aims to preserve macroeconomic stability, improve the business climate, enhance governance and transparency, and foster inclusive growth. The RSF-supported program will support Congo in advancing its climate adaptation and mitigation agenda while consolidating its role as a solution country in the transition to a low-carbon global economy. Under the new ECF arrangement, the authorities plan to boost growth and create fiscal space for priority investment and social spendings. The Central Bank of the Congo has appropriately maintained a tight monetary policy stance to combat inflation, which has consequently declined substantially in 2024. The authorities aim to continue efforts to accumulate international reserves, strengthen the monetary policy implementation framework and the foreign exchange intervention strategy, to help enhance the transmission of monetary policy and alleviate pressures in the foreign exchange market.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper analyzes domestic revenue mobilization in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and offers options to strengthen it. Domestic revenue mobilization (DRM) in the DRC has improved during the Extended Credit Facility ECF program, standing at 13.7 percent over gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023, though it remains persistently low relative to peer countries. The recent improvements in revenue mobilization have been driven by stronger corporate income taxation (particularly stemming from the extractive sector). A comparison between DRC’s and peer countries’ tax structure points to significant room for boosting domestic revenues with stronger mobilization of personal income taxes, taxes on international trade and transactions and goods and services. In addition, the country’s tax potential (estimated on the basis of its structural characteristics and a stochastic frontier model) points to significant scope for improving tax-to-GDP ratio, by about 10 percentage points under more efficient tax policy and tax collection. Finally, tax administration reforms based on recommendations from the recently published the Tax Administration Diagnostic Assessment Tool report can significantly contribute to boosting DRM, with particular focus on tax-avoidance in the mining sector.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Democratic Republic of the Congo’s 2024 Article IV Consultation, Sixth Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, Request for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Quantitative Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review. The Democratic Republic of the Congo has made significant progress under the ECF arrangement, although performance during the sixth review has been constrained by the persistent security and humanitarian crises, fiscal slippage, and ongoing inflationary pressures. The domestic fiscal deficit for 2024 is projected to narrow compared to 2023, as higher mining revenue would help ease pressures from higher security spending and investment. Performance under the program has been generally positive, with most quantitative targets met and key reforms implemented, albeit at a slow pace. The economic outlook remains positive but is subject to substantial downside risks. This calls for continued prudent policies and increasing reform efforts in fiscal and monetary frameworks and in governance.
International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development
This supplement includes five background papers and provides background information on various aspects of capacity development (CD) for the main Board paper, Review of the Fund’s Capacity Development Strategy—Towards a More Flexible, Integrated, and Tailored Model. It is divided into five sections, each consisting of a different background paper. The five sections cover (1) CD Delivery Modalities; (2) Evaluation and Impact; (3) Regional Capacity Development Centers and Field Presence; (4) HR Policies; and (5) Mapping the Fund’s Position vis-à-vis Other CD Providers.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This technical assistance report on the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) focuses on Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) and climate PIMA. The access and quality of infrastructure resulting from these investments are very poor, with major risks of deterioration. While it is important to increase investment, that will not be enough; it is also necessary to invest better, thanks to enhanced public investment management. Public investment management in the DRC suffers from weaknesses across the whole project cycle, both on paper and in practice. Strengthening budget credibility is a key condition for the success of public investment management reforms in the DRC. Based on the PIMA evaluation, this report puts forward seven high-priority recommendations that could greatly improve public investment management in the DRC in the short to medium term. Finally, other significant efforts to reform public finance management undertaken by the Government will contribute to enhancing public investment management. This relates particularly to the shift to a double budget appropriation system, to the transition to program-based budgeting, and to the strengthening of transparency and competition in public procurement.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Macroeconomic gains under the program so far are partly overshadowed by recurrent shocks. Due to the war in Ukraine and global economic developments, the Democratic Republic of the Congo is experiencing a terms-of-trade shock associated with rising energy and food prices (pushing inflation above 12 percent) and falling prices for mining products. Compounding these headwinds, the escalation of the armed conflict in the east of the country is having major negative economic, security and humanitarian effects, the magnitude of which—if the situation persists or worsens further—could jeopardize recent progress.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Democratic Republic of the Congo’s third review under the Extended Credit Facility arrangement, request for modification of performance criteria, and financing assurances review. Despite multiple shocks, economic activity has proven resilient supported by higher-than envisaged mining production. Growth is forecast at 6.6 per cent in 2022, but inflation is expected to exceed 12 percent by end-2022. The fiscal deficit is expected to narrow in 2023. Sustained revenue mobilization and contained current spending in goods, services and subsidies are expected to provide space for social spending, infrastructure, and human capital investment, and arrears clearance. Saving revenue over performance would support efforts to build buffers. Phasing out the fuel subsidy and establishing targeted social transfers are important measures to strengthen social safety nets to protect the vulnerable. Readiness to tighten the monetary stance to bring inflation to the 7- percent target together with efforts to strengthen the monetary policy framework will support price stability. Further accumulation of reserves, while enhancing the role of the exchange rate as a shock absorber, is essential to external resilience. The recent adoption of the new banking law is crucial to strengthen financial sector regulation and supervision.
Sebastian Beer
,
Ms. Dora Benedek
,
Brian Erard
, and
Jan Loeprick
Governments use tax expenditures (TEs) to provide financial support or benefits to taxpayers. The budgetary impact of TEs can be similar to that of direct outlays: after the support is provided, less money is available to fund other government priorities. Systematic evaluations are needed to guide informed decision-mak¬ing and to avoid a situation where the narrative on the benefits of TEs is primarily driven by profiting stakeholders. By TE “evaluation,” this note refers to a process that seeks to systematically inform policymak¬ers on the desirability of introducing or maintaining specific tax benefits by gathering and analyzing avail¬able quantitative and qualitative information on their effects. Evaluation processes can be tailored to different levels of data availability and analytical capacity. An evaluation should focus on the policy objective of a TE and whether it effectively and efficiently contrib¬utes to that policy objective. Although important lessons can be learned from coun¬try practices in implementing increasingly ambitious evaluation processes, there is no single best-practice approach to replicate.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
After a third wave over the summer, COVID-19 cases are declining but vaccination has stalled. Economic activity has improved on the back of strengthened external demand, allowing for a stronger-than-envisaged buildup in international reserves. Inflation and the exchange rate have stabilized. Near-term challenges arise from uncertainty related to the pandemic and the gradual global economic recovery supporting high commodity prices.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Abstract

This issue of the Fiscal Monitor examines the conduct of fiscal policy under the uncertainty caused by dependence on natural resource revenues. It draws on extensive past research on the behavior of commodity prices and their implications for macroeconomic outcomes, as well as on extensive IMF technical assistance to resource-rich economies seeking to improve their management of natural resource wealth.