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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Armenia’s economy has been hit hard by twin shocks: the COVID-19 pandemic (now in its second wave), and the recent military hostilities involving the Nagorno- Karabakh conflict zone. Reflecting these shocks, growth is expected at -7¼ percent this year, with the fiscal deficit and debt rising considerably. Nonetheless, the authorities have responded promptly with healthcare and anti-crisis measures to limit the pandemic’s impact while protecting vulnerable groups and safeguarding macroeconomic stability.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Armenia’s fiscal transparency practices have benefitted from public financial management reforms over the last decade, and several planned reforms will bring further progress. Fiscal forecasts and budgets have become more forward looking and policy oriented, with the introduction of a medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF), improved fiscal objectives, and a performance budgeting system. Fiscal risk disclosure, though fragmented, has gradually improved, in particular, in macrofiscal risk assessment, and a PPP law is being drafted. The accrual accounting reform will significantly improve the coverage and quality of the budget execution reports and fiscal statistics that already provide timely and frequent information about the financial position of the government.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This paper presents Fiscal Transparency Evaluation (FTE) for Armenia. This report provides 10 recommendations aimed at further enhancing fiscal transparency in the areas prioritized. Fiscal forecasts and budgets have become more forward looking and policy oriented, with the introduction of a medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF), improved fiscal objectives, and a performance budgeting system. The report presents the assessment of fiscal transparency practices against the IMF’s Fiscal Transparency Code (FTC). Armenia’s fiscal transparency practices have strengths and weaknesses in all areas of FTC: fiscal reporting, fiscal forecasting and budgeting, and fiscal risk disclosure and management. The fiscal transparency evaluation also estimates Armenia’s public sector financial position, in order to provide a more comprehensive view of public finances. Expanding the institutional coverage of Armenia’s fiscal reports to the entire public sector would increase the deficit by 1.3 percent of gross domestic product and would have a material impact on revenue and expenditure.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This paper discusses results of a technical assistance report prepared to evaluate the quality of Armenia’s public investment institutions in the planning, budgeting, and implementation stages of public investment management. Significant gaps exist in the efficiency of public investments, both in terms of physical outputs and quality. The report also highlights that in a context of limited fiscal space, the scaling up of public investments will require the prioritization of efforts to introduce reforms in the following areas in need of urgent action. The recommendations in this report prioritize the eight actions at the key stages of the project cycle and for the Ministry of Finance’s capacity development. Recommendation is also made to establish a constraint on in-year changes in project implementation plans and complete the transformation of the Audit Chamber from the Control Chamber. Armenia is expected to have a more robust audit function when the provisions in the new Law on the ‘Audit Chamber’ are fully implemented.
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

The Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) evaluation on International Reserves: IMF Concerns and Country Perspectives was discussed by the Board in December 2012. This evaluation examined the IMF’s analysis of the effect of reserves on the stability of the international monetary system and its advice on reserve adequacy assessments in the context of bilateral surveillance. In the multilateral context, the evaluation acknowledged the IMF’s broader work stream on the international monetary system but noted that this work had not sufficiently informed the analysis and recommendations regarding reserves. The IEO evaluation of The Role of the IMF as Trusted Advisor was discussed by the Board in February 2013. This evaluation found that perceptions of the IMF had improved, but that they varied markedly by region and country type. Recognizing that there will always be an inherent tension between the IMF’s roles as a global watchdog and as a trusted advisor to member country authorities, the evaluation report explored how the IMF could sustain the more positive image it had achieved in the aftermath of the recent global crisis. The evaluation found that among key challenges facing the IMF were improving the value added and relevance of IMF advice and overcoming the perception of a lack of even-handedness.

International Monetary Fund
The main drivers of economic growth in Armenia were the construction and service sectors. The global economic crisis resulted in a substantial change in the structure of the economy. The drastic decline in the volume of foreign financing prejudice the continuation of rapid economic growth in the medium term and point to the need for incentives for exports and diversification, as well as encouraging of high-quality job openings and high levels of productivity. Reforms are needed in the key sectors of agriculture and infrastructure.
International Monetary Fund
This paper evaluates Armenia’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) Progress Report covering August 2003–December 2004. The developments in 2003–04 are rather reassuring. The resulting pattern, overall, is more favorable than what was foreseen by the PRSP development scenario. Particularly, the economy grew twice as rapidly as the projected rate, and the government continues to implement a public expenditure policy that is focused on social sectors and infrastructure development. As a result, compared with PRSP targets, a better performance on poverty and inequality reduction has been recorded in 2003.
International Monetary Fund
This paper examines Armenia’s Fifth Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) and Request for Extension of the Arrangement. Performance under the PRGF-supported program since mid-2003 has been satisfactory: the authorities met all quantitative targets and implemented most of the envisaged structural measures. Tax revenue collection was somewhat disappointing in 2003, although it has improved in early 2004. Future growth in Armenia will increasingly depend on the ability of the banking system to mobilize and allocate domestic savings.
International Monetary Fund
This report provides an assessment of the Observance of Standards and Codes on Fiscal Transparency Module for the Republic of Armenia. Armenia has made substantial progress in recent years to improve a number of aspects of fiscal transparency. It has achieved significant results, especially regarding the legal framework and reporting. This progress will be furthered when the draft laws currently under consideration by the authorities, especially the treasury law, the law on state debt, and the disclosure requirements on high-ranking officials’ property and income, are effectively implemented.