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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Uzbekistan embarked on an ambitious reform path in 2017, starting to liberalize its economy after years of state control. Incomes are still relatively low compared to other emerging economies. Uzbekistan entered the COVID-19 crisis with relatively strong macro-economic fundamentals.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on policies to drive diversification for Qatar. Diversification is important for a large commodity exporter like Qatar: it helps manage temporary shocks and prepare for sweeping changes to the economic setting. Qatar’s large financial holdings can help diversify revenues. Both structural reforms to improve the business environment and sector-specific policies can support diversification of activity and exports. Sector-specific policies should build on existing economic strengths in areas with room for exports and innovation. Emphasis should be placed on developing expertise in specific clusters. Export markets and competition provide crucial mechanisms to ensure discipline. Further diversification is important to help Qatar manage temporary shocks and prepare for far-reaching shifts to the economic context. Well-targeted, structured, and sequenced policies to encourage specific sectors can also play a role in diversifying Qatar’s economy. Export markets and competition should be deliberately used to hold recipients of support accountable. Policies to encourage specific sectors have resulted in little more than inefficient import substitution in many countries. Avoiding this outcome requires discipline: support should be withdrawn in the absence of progress.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper outlines a consolidated Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF), which is comprehensive and forward looking, could set a clear direction for fiscal policy for the country as a whole and better align resource allocation with local and national developments plans underpinned by goals embodied in the Vision 2021. High quality of public financial management systems overall is also key ingredient of an appropriate MTFF. The framework could consider explicitly expenditure needs in critical areas such as education and health care. Monitoring of contingent liabilities needs to be strengthened, including covering private and public partnerships (PPPs) and government related enterprises (GREs) including their global subsidiaries. Data sharing across all levels of governments, including the central bank, could also be strengthened. The federal government and the Emirates of Abu Dhabi and Dubai have started using MTFFs to inform their fiscal policy choices, albeit to different degrees.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses key issues related to the economy of Somalia. Since 2012, Somalia has been recovering slowly from nearly 25 years of civil war. Weak institutional capacity, complex clan politics, and a challenging security situation have complicated economic reconstruction. As a result, social and economic conditions remain dire. To help Somalia’s economic reconstruction efforts and establish a policy implementation track record as an important step toward an eventual fund arrangement, the authorities have requested an IMF staff-monitored program. It focuses on strengthening macroeconomic policy management and reforms to strengthen economic governance and institutional capacity and keep up the pace of restoring key economic and financial institutions.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Abstract

The global economy remains fragile at this time. While the recovery in advanced economies is softening, many emerging market and developing economies have experienced a significant economic slowdown, and some large countries show signs of distress. Global risk aversion has risen, and commodity prices have continued to fall since the April 2015 Fiscal Monitor. The weaker outlook and concerns about the ability of policymakers to provide an adequate and swift policy response have amplified downward risks and clouded global prospects. According to this issue of the Fiscal Monitor, the challenging environment calls for a comprehensive policy response to boost growth and reduce vulnerabilities. In particular, it is critical to identify policies that could lift productivity growth by promoting innovation. Fiscal policy can play an important role in stimulating innovation through its effects on research and development, entrepreneurship, and technology transfer.

International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Abstract

This issue of the Fiscal Monitor examines the conduct of fiscal policy under the uncertainty caused by dependence on natural resource revenues. It draws on extensive past research on the behavior of commodity prices and their implications for macroeconomic outcomes, as well as on extensive IMF technical assistance to resource-rich economies seeking to improve their management of natural resource wealth.

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses measures to strengthen fiscal policy and budget frameworks in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). It provides an overview of government’s revenue and expenditure developments, and presents fiscal sustainability analysis that is most relevant to countries with large hydrocarbon wealth such as the UAE. The paper discusses measures to contain expenditure growth—controlling the public wage bill, reducing subsidies and transfers, and stabilizing other expense in real terms. It also proposes options to increase nonhydrocarbon revenue such as broadening corporate income tax with lower rates, introducing a low rate-broad based value added tax, and levying an excise tax on automobiles.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses strengthening of fiscal policy and fiscal frameworks in Qatar. It proposes ways to ensure that sustainable fiscal policy is maintained in the medium to long term in Qatar. Fiscal policy remains sustainable, but given the large drop in oil prices, revenue-raising and expenditure-containing measures need to be considered to ensure intergenerational equity. Measures aimed at containing current spending, prioritizing capital expenditure, and raising nonhydrocarbon revenues would help bring fiscal policy back to consistency with intergenerational equity. Strengthening fiscal frameworks would help achieve the desirable fiscal policies.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Abstract

At a time when job creation tops the policy agenda globally, this issue of the Fiscal Monitor explores if and how fiscal policy can do more for jobs. It finds that while fiscal policy cannot substitute for comprehensive reforms, it can support job creation in a number of ways. First, deficit reduction can be designed and timed to minimize negative effects on employment. Second, fiscal policy can facilitate structural reforms in the labor market by offsetting their potential short term costs. And third, targeted fiscal measures, including labor tax cuts, can help tackle challenges in specific segments of the labor market, such as youth and older workers.

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the real estate market and Expo 2020 in the United Arab Emirates. It discusses the measures that could mitigate risks associated with the real estate cycle and the international experience with real estate booms and hosting large events such as World Expos, Olympic Games, and World Cup tournaments. The paper discusses the recent developments in the segments of the real estate market in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, focusing on changes in sales prices, rents, and supply in the market. It also takes stock of measures the authorities have introduced recently to reduce the potential for speculative pressure in the real estate market.