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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Solomon Islands has weathered the shocks of civil unrest, pandemic, and commodity price hikes, and achieved the milestones of hosting the Pacific Games in late 2023 and conducting peaceful general elections in April 2024. These achievements have raised the country's profile and strengthened national unity, but with costs—public debt has nearly tripled since before the pandemic, and the government's cash reserves have been significantly depleted. While staff expects continued modest growth in 2024 and 2025, medium-term growth prospects appear moderate and fiscal and current account deficits are expected to persist. Now is the time for the authorities to advance reforms to tackle the perennial challenge of stagnant per-capita income growth, while ensuring fiscal sustainability and resilience.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Liberia continues to face substantial long-term development challenges. Resource constraints and substantial gaps in infrastructure and human capital have hindered Liberia’s growth prospects and the authorities’ efforts to improve living standards. Addressing these challenges will require sustained efforts to mobilize additional revenues, enhance financial stability, improve public financial management, and seek external grants and highly concessional loans for key capital investment projects. Improvements in these areas would help create fiscal space to scale up investment in infrastructure and human capital, thus unleashing the country’s growth potential.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The authorities have requested a new ECF-supported program, to deepen reforms undertaken under the previous program (completed in July 2024). They have also requested a program under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The Gambia hosted the 15th Summit of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in early May 2024—the second largest intergovernmental organization in the world. Economic recovery is strengthening, while inflation has trended down, albeit slowly. Despite strong revenue collection efforts, the fiscal outcome for 2024H1 was weighed down by the costs of hosting the OIC Summit and emergency support to the National Water and Electricity Corporation (NAWEC). The foreign exchange market continues to function smoothly, and foreign reserves remain at a comfortable level. Structural reforms are advancing. The economic outlook is subject to large downside risks, particularly owing to global geopolitical tensions.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents Republic of Kosovo’s 2024 Article IV Consultation and Third Reviews under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) and the Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). Kosovo’s economic performance has been strong, with growth accelerating in 2024 and inflation falling sharply. The near-term outlook is favorable despite some downside risks. The authorities continue to show strong performance under both programs. All quantitative targets and structural conditions for the completion of the Third Review under the SBA were met. Most RSF Reform Measures have been completed. Fiscal policy should continue to balance sustainability and development objectives and be framed within a solid, rules-based fiscal framework. The 2025 budget envisages a fiscal impulse with full-year implementation of spending measures announced in 2024, a proposed increase in public wages, and the expected improvement in public investment execution. Structural reforms are urgently needed to raise potential growth. Priority should be given to further advancing green reforms and decarbonization, implementing policies to boost female labor-force participation, attracting foreign capital—including from the diaspora—into productive sectors of the economy, and accelerating digitalization.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents Ukraine’s Sixth Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Requests for Modification of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review. Ukraine’s economy remains resilient, and performance remains strong under the EFF despite challenging conditions. The authorities met all end-September quantitative performance criteria and structural benchmarks. Economic growth in 2024 has been upgraded given better than expected resilience to the energy shocks. However, a slowdown is expected in 2025 due to an increasingly tight labor market, the impact of Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and continued uncertainty about the war. The financial sector remains stable, but vigilance is needed given heightened risks. Progress on strengthening bank resolution and risk-based supervision, stress-testing frameworks and contingency planning should be sustained. Sustained reform momentum, progress at domestic revenue mobilization, and timely disbursement of external support are necessary to safeguard macroeconomic stability, restore fiscal and debt sustainability, and improve governance.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents IMF’s Sixth Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangements, Request for Modifications of Performance Criteria, and Second Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) Arrangement for Moldova. The recovery from adverse spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine and energy price shocks is taking hold. Growth picked up in 2024 and is expected to strengthen further in 2025, driven by robust domestic demand. Downside risks remain high, mainly related to Russia’s war in Ukraine and renewed energy shocks. While quantitative performance of the program has been strong, implementation of structural reforms has been uneven. Further reforms to enhance fiscal performance and the allocation of public resources, strengthen energy security, strengthen governance and the rule of law, and advance climate adaptation and mitigation are key to protect Moldova against shocks and improve its growth prospects.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents IMF’s Fifth Review under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangements, and the Second Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) for Benin. New industries are emerging in Benin, with higher value-added goods’ exports and momentum in information technology and tourism. The 2025 budget recently adopted by Parliament targets compliance with the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) fiscal deficit norm of 3 percent of gross domestic product, supported by sustained domestic revenue mobilization and scaling up social spending. The adoption of a predictable mechanism for fuel products that accounts for the specificities of Benin’s local fuel market as well as the related compensatory mechanism is welcome. Early implementation of those schemes will be important. A key challenge ahead for Benin is to further strengthen inclusive policies for an economic transformation that generates jobs and benefits all Beninese.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents Serbia’s Fourth Review under the Stand-By Arrangement, Cancellation of the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), and Request for a 36 Month Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI). Under the SBA, Serbia pursued ambitious reforms, helping achieve strong macroeconomic outcomes and a first ever investment grade rating in October 2024. By building on these accomplishments, the PCI will support the authorities in their efforts to demonstrate continued commitment to sound policies, sustain reform momentum, and anchor fiscal discipline. Under the PCI, public debt is slated to decline to 45 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 and lower thereafter, balancing continued fiscal prudence with spending needs, including for public investment. Further progress with fiscal-structural and state-owned enterprise reforms will be crucial complements to fiscal discipline. A restrictive monetary policy stance will help guard against upside inflation risks. The stabilized exchange rate has served Serbia well, but greater flexibility could be considered over time.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Haiti faces an unprecedented multidimensional crisis encompassing humanitarian, economic, social, and security problems. The economy has a low tax base and a large informal sector that relies heavily on volatile remittance flows. Haiti’s macroeconomic outlook is challenging and subject to elevated uncertainty. The supply-side shock caused by the security crisis would continue to greatly affect growth and feed inflation unless the security outlook improves. The analytical work underpinning the policy discussions, prepared by staff in agreement with the authorities, focuses on strengthening policy frameworks to enhance resilience. The report recommends implementing the budget for FY2025 and keeps the monetary financing of the budget to zero, consistent with the objective of price stability. It is also recommended to provide more timely data to the IMF and enhance data transparency through timeline publication of core economic data. It can also be beneficial to adopt measures to strengthen revenue collection, expenditure management and controls and increase budget allocations for social spending and for protecting the most vulnerable—and assess their impact.