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Business and Economics > Budgeting

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Sixth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Modification of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents Ukraine’s Sixth Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Requests for Modification of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review. Ukraine’s economy remains resilient, and performance remains strong under the EFF despite challenging conditions. The authorities met all end-September quantitative performance criteria and structural benchmarks. Economic growth in 2024 has been upgraded given better than expected resilience to the energy shocks. However, a slowdown is expected in 2025 due to an increasingly tight labor market, the impact of Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and continued uncertainty about the war. The financial sector remains stable, but vigilance is needed given heightened risks. Progress on strengthening bank resolution and risk-based supervision, stress-testing frameworks and contingency planning should be sustained. Sustained reform momentum, progress at domestic revenue mobilization, and timely disbursement of external support are necessary to safeguard macroeconomic stability, restore fiscal and debt sustainability, and improve governance.
Keywords:
core inflation basket; Ukrenergo's government; national bank of Ukraine; supervisory board; inflation expectation; Budget planning and preparation; Inflation; International reserves; Debt sustainability; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Algérie: Consultations de 2023 au titre de l’article IV-communiqué de presse; rapport des services du FMI et déclaration de l’administrateur pour l’Algérie
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
L’économie algérienne se relevait juste de la pandémie lorsqu’elle a été frappée par les répercussions de la guerre en Ukraine et une succession de sécheresses. Ces chocs ont alimenté l’inflation, même si la hausse des cours mondiaux des hydrocarbures a aussi augmenté les recettes publiques et les exportations. L’Algérie a enregistré une croissance vigoureuse en 2023 et sa position extérieure est restée solide, avec un excédent des transactions extérieures pour la deuxième année consécutive et une nouvelle accumulation de réserves de change. L’inflation demeure élevée et pourrait s’enraciner. Les lois de finances 2023–24 visent à soutenir le pouvoir d’achat des ménages, mais risquent d’épuiser les marges de manœuvre qui protègent le budget contre la volatilité des recettes. Les réformes structurelles progressent, avec la promulgation de la loi monétaire et bancaire et la mise en œuvre de la budgétisation par programmes et du code de l’investissement de 2022. Des investissements dans la transition numérique permettraient de renforcer la gouvernance et la transparence, de réduire les risques de corruption et d’améliorer la prestation des services.
Keywords:
la liquidité du marché; opération d’absorption de liquidité; risque d’inflation; le resserrement de la politique monétaire; système d’évaluation du crédit; pression inflationniste; prix des hydrocarbures; finances publiques; IPC de l’Algérie; Inflation; Planification et préparation du budget; les banques d’État; Global; Moyen-Orient; Afrique du Nord; Afrique orientale; Europe.
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Arab Republic of Egypt: First and Second Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Monetary Policy Consultation, and Requests for Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion, and Augmentation and Rephasing of Access-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper presents Arab Republic of Egypt’s First and Second Reviews under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Monetary Policy Consultation, and Requests for Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion, and Augmentation and Rephasing of Access. A strong economic stabilization plan is being implemented to correct policy slippages. The plan is centered on a liberalized foreign exchange system in the context of a flexible exchange rate regime, a significant tightening of the policy mix, reducing public investment, and leveling the playing field to allow the private sector to become the engine of growth. While the recent sizable investment deal in Ras El-Hekma alleviates the near-term financing pressures, implementation of the economic policies under the program remains critical to address Egypt’s macroeconomic challenges. Robust delivery on structural reforms will be critical to lock in the benefits of the improved financing environment. IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for the completion of the first and second reviews under the EFF Arrangement.
Keywords:
interbank FX turnover; liberalized foreign exchange system; system functioning; fuel price subsidy; policy slippage; Fuel prices; Budget planning and preparation
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Algeria: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Algeria
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that the Algerian economy is estimated to have grown by 4.2 percent in 2023, a robust performance owing to a rebound in hydrocarbon production and strong performance in the industry, construction, and service sectors. The near-term outlook is broadly positive, but inflation remains a concern. Medium-term economic prospects hinge on efforts to diversify the economy and the ability to attract private investment, and are subject to several risks. The reforms embodied in the Monetary and Banking Law could be an impetus to strengthen the credit market infrastructure, develop long-term savings products, and advance financial inclusion. Sustained and bold reforms would tap the potential of the private sector as driver of sustained growth and job creation. The implementation of the Investment Law and the enactment of a new Land Law aim at fostering private sector initiative and investment and should be complemented with reforming the state-owned enterprises sector and making product and labor market more flexible.
Keywords:
market liquidity; liquidity-absorption operation; inflation risk; monetary policy tightening; credit assessment System; inflation pressure; hydrocarbon price; public finance; Algeria's CPI; Inflation; Budget planning and preparation; State-owned banks; Global; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Moldova: Third Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility and the Extended Fund Facility Arrangements, and Request for a Waiver for Nonobservance of Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Moldova
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents the Republic of Moldova’s Third Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility and the Extended Fund Facility Arrangements, and Request for a Waiver for Nonobservance of Performance Criterion. As the outlook is subject to high uncertainty, near-term priorities should remain focused on mitigating the impact of the war, ensuring energy security, adapting contingency plans to evolving risks, and maintaining an appropriate policy mix. Once near-term pressures from the crises subside, the authorities appropriately plan to reorient spending toward supporting the recovery. Moldova remains in a precarious position. Russia’s war in Ukraine and its proximity to Moldova continue to fuel security concerns, while the social fabric remains fragile and stretched by high food and energy prices. Prudent use of contingency plans has helped reduce energy security risks and supported the most vulnerable through the cost-of-living crisis. Continued strong reform implementation—supported by the program—helps build solid foundations for sustainable long-term development.
Keywords:
reform agenda; Policy discussion; monetary policy easing; reform path; inflation consultation clause; Inflation; Budget planning and preparation; Loans; International reserves; Corruption; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Algeria: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Algeria’s economic recovery from the pandemic has been buoyed by the rise in international hydrocarbon prices. Fiscal and external surpluses are expected in 2022 for the first time in years. Inflation has nevertheless accelerated, as elsewhere, and has become a complex policy challenge. Monetary policy remained accommodative, while the dinar appreciated in the second half of the year. The authorities have gradually advanced on their structural reform agenda, with the enactment of a new law on investment, renewed efforts to accelerate digitalization, significant progress on tax and public finance management reforms, and a forthcoming revision to the central bank law.
Keywords:
money market rate; oil prices decline; financial asset; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; headline inflation; Inflation; Budget planning and preparation; State-owned banks; Tax administration core functions; Budget execution and treasury management; Global; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Algeria: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2022 Article IV Consultation with Algeria highlights that the upswing in hydrocarbon prices has alleviated pressures on public and external finances and the post-pandemic recovery has likely gathered pace. The prospects for 2023 are favorable but growth is projected to decelerate and inflation to remain high in the medium term. The near-term outlook for the Algerian economy has materially improved, buoyed by the upswing in hydrocarbon prices. The announced sizeable rise in spending under the 2023 budget could reverse the progress achieved on narrowing the deficit since 2018, weaken the resilience of public finances and add to inflation pressures. The medium-term deficit trajectory also carries risks for macroeconomic stability. Continued wide fiscal deficits and increasing principal repayments coming due on past monetary financing would result in large fiscal financing needs through the medium term. As the authorities have ruled out foreign borrowing, meeting these financing needs would heap significant pressure on the domestic banking system and pose risks to financial and macroeconomic stability. Gradual fiscal rebalancing guided by a rules-based framework is needed to enhance the resilience of public finances and safeguard macroeconomic stability in the medium term.
Keywords:
money market rate; oil prices decline; financial asset; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; headline inflation; Inflation; Budget planning and preparation; State-owned banks; Tax administration core functions; Budget execution and treasury management; Global; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kenya: Fourth Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility and under the Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility, and Requests for Augmentation of Access under the Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility, and Modifications of Quantitative Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kenya
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Kenya is navigating a turbulent global backdrop marked by volatile commodity prices, slowing growth in key trading partners, and constrained frontier market access to international capital markets. At home, a smooth transition following the August elections demonstrated Kenya’s increasing institutional strengths, while the multi-season drought has worsened food insecurity for vulnerable populations in arid and semi-arid regions and kept food prices elevated. Strong tax overperformance in FY2021/22 helped cushion some of these shocks, and the administration of President Ruto eliminated petrol subsidies in their first week in office. Inflation has breached the central bank (CBK) target band, and monetary policy has been tightened by 175 basis points this year. Foreign reserves are adequate, but lower than previously projected given shortfalls in FY2021/22 external public commercial and project financing, spending cuts in FY2022/23 also extending to externally-financed projects, and the prospects for continued challenging market conditions for frontier economies into 2023.
Keywords:
monetary policy stance; Kenyan authorities; policy objective; steadfast effort; target band; reinforcing Monetary; Debt sustainability analysis; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Moldova: First Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility, and Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria and Inflation Consultation Clause-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Moldova
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Moldova’s economy is projected to stagnate in 2022 amid spillovers from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The war in Ukraine continues to weigh heavily on Moldova, although some initial pressures have subsided. Bank deposit net withdrawals came to an end and are now steadily being replenished. The leu depreciated by about 8 percent so far while pressures on foreign reserves have eased. About 550,000 refugees fleeing the war (representing more than 20 percent of the Moldovan population) have transited through Moldova, with about a fifth remaining in the country. Driven by rising food and energy prices, inflation accelerated further above the target band.
Keywords:
General government budget; Policy discussion; program implementation; policy effectiveness; inflation consultation clause; governance reform; Inflation; Energy prices; Budget planning and preparation; Import prices; Credit; Global; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Sierra Leone: 2022 Article IV Consultation and Fifth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modifications of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurance Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sierra Leone
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Sierra Leone’s 2022 Article IV Consultation and Fifth Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, Requests for Waivers, of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modifications of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurance Review. The economic recovery from the pandemic has been set back by the impact of the war in Ukraine and the medium-term outlook remains challenging. Successive external shocks have contributed toward mixed performance under the ECF arrangement. The authorities have committed to strong corrective actions to bring the fiscal situation under control. Sierra Leone continues to pursue its development path amidst continued vulnerability to shocks and capacity needs. Sustained efforts to strengthen governance will be essential, to reduce vulnerabilities to corruption, foster private sector development and growth, and ensure more effective delivery of public services. Ensuring the financial and operational independence of the supreme audit institution is a priority. Continued progress on human capital development, climate adaptation, and expansion of social-safety nets would be welcome.
Keywords:
staff appraisal; memorandum of economic policy; Sierra Leone's constitution; supplementary letter of intent; BSL rate; Budget planning and preparation; Inflation; Debt sustainability; Global; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa