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Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

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Cover Africa-China Linkages
Africa-China Linkages
Building Deeper and Broader Connections
Abebe Aemro Selassie
,
Andrea Richter Hume
, and
Alfred Schipke

Abstract

Africa has made remarkable strides across many development metrics, significantly improving life expectancy, literacy, health, and education. With its population set to double to around 2 billion by 2050, Africa’s economic trajectory will increasingly shape global dynamics. Central to this growth story are Africa’s economic and financial linkages with China, reflected in robust trade, foreign direct investment, and financing flows. These connections are bolstered by institutional frameworks like the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, which aim to strengthen and expand this partnership.  This book delves into the evolving Africa-China economic relationship, examining its many facets and the potential impact of China’s current trends on Africa’s future. It offers a multidimensional analysis, including the role of policy frameworks, capacity building, and fintech in promoting sustainable development. One chapter provides a comprehensive overview of official financing, detailing the Chinese government agencies driving the China-Africa economic partnership. Another explores the rapid evolution of fintech in both regions, highlighting its role in enhancing financial inclusion, spurring growth, and reducing income inequality. This offers valuable insights for other emerging markets and developing countries. The book also dedicates a chapter to China’s economic ties with the Maghreb countries, while discussions on global experiences in strengthening policy frameworks and capacity building offer crucial lessons for bolstering Africa’s institutional structures.   With China poised to contribute a quarter of global economic growth over the next five years, it will remain a key player in shaping Africa’s economic future. However, the slowing of China’s economy, and its ongoing structural changes, will present both challenges and opportunities for African nations. By focusing on this important and evolving driver of growth in Africa, this book complements the IMF’s ongoing policy dialogue and financial support to African countries. The IMF’s deep experience in analysing spillovers is particularly relevant for the book’s assessment of the channels through which developments in China affect Africa.

Keywords:
Africa; China; Economic Development; Growth; Debt; Financing; Investment; Institutions; Capacity Development; Frameworks
Cover La douane, une institution clé
La douane, une institution clé
renforcer l’administration douanière dans un monde changeant
Augusto Azael Pérez Azcárraga
,
Tadatsugu Matsudaira
,
Gilles Montagnat-Rentier
,
Janos Nagy
, and
R. James Clark

Abstract

La multiplication des échanges commerciaux internationaux, les progrès des nouvelles technologies et l’évolution des modèles commerciaux constituent de nouveaux enjeux pour les administrations douanières. Cet ouvrage analyse les nombreux changements et défis que connaissent aujourd’hui les administrations douanières, et propose des moyens de résoudre les difficultés qu’elles peuvent rencontrer. Il expose les problèmes que les décideurs doivent prendre en compte pour élaborer la feuille de route de leurs réformes de modernisation.

Keywords:
douanes; conformité fiscale; recouvrement de l’impôt; fraude fiscale; facilitation des échanges; gestion des risques douaniers; sécurité frontalière; commerce; régimes fiscaux; politique commerciale; recettes fiscales; opérateurs commerciaux; modernisation des douanes; technologies numériques; économie publique; secteur public; finances publiques; développement économique; évolution technologique
Cover جمارك مؤسسة حيوية
جمارك مؤسسة حيوية
تعزيز الإدارة الجمركية في عالم متغير
Augusto Azael Pérez Azcárraga
,
Tadatsugu Matsudaira
,
Gilles Montagnat-Rentier
,
Janos Nagy
, and
R. James Clark

Abstract

ظهرت تحديات جديدة أمام الإدارة الجمركية مع تزايُد حجم التجارة الدولية، وتطورات التكنولوجيات الجديدة، والتغيرات في نماذج الأعمال. هذا الكتاب يحلل التغيرات والتحديات العديدة أمام الإدارات الجمركية في الوقت الراهن ويقترح طرقا لمعالجة القضايا المحتملة. ويحدد الكتاب المشكلات التي يجب أن يأخذها صناع السياسات في الاعتبار مع قيامهم بوضع خرائط الطريق الخاصة بهم للإصلاحات الرامية إلى التحديث.

Keywords:
مارك؛ الامتثال الضريبي؛ إنفاذ الضريبة؛ التهرب الضريبي؛ تيسير التجارة؛ إدارة المخاطر الجمركية؛ أمن الحدود؛ التجارة؛ نظم الضرائب؛ السياسة التجارية؛ الإيرادات الضريبية؛ المشغلون التجاريون؛ تحديث الجمارك؛ التكنولوجيات الرقمية؛ الاقتصاديات العامة؛ الإدارة العامة؛ الموارد العامة؛ التنمية الاقتصادية؛ التغير التكنولوجي
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Curaçao and Sint Maarten: Technical Assistance Report; Financial Stability Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The IMF Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) conducted a technical assistance (TA) mission in Curaçao and Sint Maarten from October 3 to October 12, 2023. The mission aimed to support the Central Bank of Curaçao and Sint Maarten (CBCS) in enhancing its Financial Stability Report (FSR) by improving financial stability assessments, strengthening the analytical framework, and refining credit risk modeling. The mission reviewed the latest available FSR and provided recommendations to improve its structure, analytical depth, and communication strategy. A key focus was on developing sectoral credit risk models to assess the impact of macroeconomic conditions on non-performing loans (NPLs) and overall financial stability. The mission also introduced the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach as a methodology for addressing model uncertainty and provided an initial estimation framework for sectoral credit risk modeling. In addition, discussions covered broader aspects of financial stability, including stress testing, interconnectedness, emerging risks such as climate and cyber risks, and the integration of financial stability indicators with regulatory frameworks. Several recommendations were made to further enhance the FSR and its underlying framework. The text of the report should be streamlined to avoid repetition and focus on key financial stability risks and vulnerabilities. The analytical toolkit should be made more forward-looking by incorporating stress testing results based on macroeconomic scenarios. The report should provide clearer communication of regulatory frameworks and financial stability indicators across all segments of the financial system, including banks, insurance companies, and pension funds. The CBCS should also strengthen its data management framework by consolidating all financial stability-related data into a centralized data warehouse and exploring the feasibility of establishing a credit register for more granular risk assessment. To ensure more effective communication, the FSR should be actively promoted as the CBCS’s flagship financial stability publication, supported by cross-departmental discussions during its development. The external communication strategy could be enhanced by organizing press briefings, media interviews, and online dissemination efforts. Additionally, emerging risks such as climate change and cybersecurity should be consistently covered in future reports. These enhancements will help improve the quality, transparency, and forward-looking nature of financial stability assessments in Curaçao and Sint Maarten, strengthening macroprudential oversight and risk management in the region.
Keywords:
Financial Stability; Financial Stability Report; Systemic risk; Analytical toolkit; Credit risk modelling; Curaçao and Sint Maarten.; CBCS data management system; credit risk model; market risk analysis; CBCS President Mr. Richard Doornbosch; bank solvency stress test result; Financial sector stability; Stress testing; Credit risk; Nonperforming loans; Financial stability assessment; Caribbean; Global
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Turks & Caicos Islands: Technical Assistance Report-Financial Stability Report Review, Credit Risk Modelling, and Stress Testing
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The IMF Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) conducted two technical assistance (TA) missions in the Turks and Caicos Islands (TCI) between January and March 2024. The missions aimed to strengthen the financial stability framework of the Turks and Caicos Islands Financial Services Commission (TCIFSC) by enhancing credit risk modeling, stress testing, and the Financial Stability Report (FSR). The first mission, held from January 29 to February 2, 2024, focused on reviewing the latest Financial Stability Report to enhance its analytical depth and clarity. The mission also worked on developing sectoral credit risk models to assess the impact of macroeconomic scenarios on bank non-performing loans (NPLs). In addition, training was provided to TCIFSC staff on advanced credit risk modeling techniques. The second mission, conducted from March 11 to 15, 2024, focused on building a multi-factor, multi-period bank solvency stress testing tool tailored to TCI’s financial sector. The mission reviewed available macroeconomic and regulatory data to refine stress test assumptions and conducted training sessions for TCIFSC staff on implementing the new framework. An illustrative stress test was performed using December 2023 data, incorporating baseline and adverse macroeconomic scenarios. The calibrated macroeconomic models considered key risks, particularly those associated with tourism-dependent credit exposures and external economic shocks. The mission provided several key recommendations to enhance the financial stability framework in the Turks and Caicos Islands. The Financial Stability Report should be further developed to improve risk communication and streamline its content. Institutionalizing regular stress testing exercises was recommended to improve the monitoring of financial resilience, while expanding financial data collection and management through the development of a centralized financial stability database would support ongoing macroprudential analysis. The mission also emphasized the need for increased coordination between the TCIFSC and the Ministry of Finance for scenario development in stress testing. The implementation of these recommendations will significantly enhance the monitoring of financial stability in the Turks and Caicos Islands and support efforts to strengthen macroprudential oversight and systemic risk management.
Keywords:
Financial stability; Financial Stability Report; Systemic risk; Stress testing; Credit risk modeling; Turks and Caicos Islands.; TCIFSC financial stability report; bank solvency ST tool; TCIFSC managing director; TCIFSC's FSR; Financial sector stability; Credit risk; Nonperforming loans; Loans; Global
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Suriname: Technical Assistance Report; Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Bank Communication
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
At the request of the Central Bank of Suriname (CBvS), this technical assistance (TA) mission assessed and provided recommendations to enhance the transparency, consistency, and stakeholder engagement of monetary policy and financial stability communication. Strengthening communication in these areas is critical to reinforcing the CBvS’s credibility, aligning its practices with international standards, and supporting its mandate for price and financial stability. The mission recommended institutionalizing structured decision-making by implementing fixed schedules for Monetary Policy Advisory Committee (MPAC) and Financial Stability Advisory Committee (FSAC) meetings, followed by policy-setting Executive Board sessions. These efforts should be supported by the introduction of forward-looking publications, including a Monetary Policy Report (MPR) and an enhanced Financial Stability Report (FSR), ensuring more structured and transparent communication. To further strengthen engagement, the report emphasizes the importance of proactive outreach and capacity-building programs to improve public understanding, foster market confidence, and reinforce CBvS’s credibility. Implementing these measures will enhance transparency, facilitate clearer communication of policy decisions, and help regain public trust in the CBvS’s commitment to monetary and financial stability.
Keywords:
monetary policy; financial stability; central bank communication; decision making frameworks; transparency and stakeholder engagement; Suriname.; monetary policy decision-making; IMF's Monetary; market expectation; deputy head; long-term objective; CARTAC mission; Financial sector stability; Monetary policy communication; Price stabilization; Open market operations; Inflation
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Barbados: Technical Assistance Report-Stress Testing
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The IMF Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) conducted a technical assistance mission to Barbados from July 31 to August 11, 2023. The mission aimed to strengthen the stress testing framework of the Central Bank of Barbados (CBB) and the Barbados Financial Services Commission (FSC) by enhancing their solvency stress testing (ST) capabilities for banks and credit unions. During the mission, the team worked closely with authorities to develop two customized stress testing tools, allowing for multi-factor and multi-period solvency assessments under various macroeconomic scenarios. These tools integrate explicit macroeconomic projections and newly developed credit risk satellite models, enabling a more sophisticated approach to evaluating key financial stability indicators, such as non-performing loans (NPLs), capital adequacy ratios, and profitability metrics. An illustrative stress test was conducted using recent financial data to demonstrate the tool’s application. The mission also focused on capacity building, providing hands-on training to technical staff at CBB and FSC to ensure the effective use and long-term sustainability of the stress testing framework. Discussions emphasized the importance of regular stress testing exercises to monitor systemic risks and enhance financial sector resilience. The mission recommended that CBB and FSC conduct semi-annual stress testing exercises, with results incorporated into the Financial Stability Report (FSR).
Keywords:
Stress testing; Financial stability; Systemic risk; Banks; Credit unions; Barbados.; economic analysis Department; CBB governor; FSC manager; FSC chief executive officer; CBB deputy governor; Credit bureaus; Loans; Nonperforming loans; Credit; Capital adequacy requirements; Global; Caribbean
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: Technical Assistance Report-Macro Stress Testing of the Uzbek Banking Sector
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The Technical Assistance (TA) mission, conducted in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, from August 21 to 31, 2023, assisted the Central Bank of Uzbekistan’s (CBU) authorities in developing their stress testing (ST) framework for the banking sector. This TA was the second of a multi-mission TA project following on the recommendations of the 2020 Financial Sector Stability Review (FSSR). This mission duly assessed the progress on the implementation of the previous mission (2022) that had introduced a multi-horizon ST tool based on explicit macroeconomic scenarios along with a credit risk satellite model. The purpose of this mission was to build on the earlier work and further strengthen the capacity of the Financial Stability Department (FSD) staff to carry out stress tests and thus assess the resilience of the Uzbek banking system. The high-level objectives of the mission encompassed improving performance of the credit risk and profit & loss satellite models, providing training on ST scenario design with working procedures for cross-departmental collaboration, and setting up guidelines to operate, maintain and improve the ST toolkit and communicate the results with senior management and general public.
Keywords:
Stress testing; macroprudential stress testing; credit risk; solvency risk; bank solvency stress testing; scenario design; financial stability; financial stability report; satellite models; Uzbekistan; Central Bank of Uzbekistan.; operating expenses; IMF's Monetary; donor partner; request of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan; Uzbek banking system; Nonperforming loans; Loans; Credit; Mortgages; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Shocks and Labor Markets: Evidence from Online Job Vacancy Postings
Serhan Cevik
,
Alice Fan
, and
Sadhna Naik
Central banks conduct monetary policy to achieve price stability, but decisions also have effects on labor-market outcomes. In this paper, we identify exogenous monetary shocks with the ‘interest rate surprise’ approach based on high-frequency changes in forward-looking interest rates and use daily data on online job vacancy postings to investigate the impact of monetary policy on labor markets in three European countries (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) during the period 2018–2024. Our results indicate that monetary policy exerts significant and durable effects on labor-market conditions as measured by online job vacancy postings in our sample of countries. First, a contractionary (expansionary) monetary policy shock leads to a persistent decline (increase) in online job vacancy postings. Across all countries, the average effect amounts to about 2 percent in 15 days after a contractionary monetary policy shock (i.e., an unanticipated increase of 1 percentage point in short-term interest rates). Second, there is significant heterogeneity in the magnitude and persistence of how monetary policy affects the labor market across three countries in our sample, varying from 0.5 percent in Latvia to 2 percent in Estonia and 3.2 percent in Lithuania. Taken together, these results are both of direct concern for policymakers and important for the transmission of monetary policy.
Keywords:
Monetary policy; labor markets; online job vacancy postings; local projections; Europe; Estonia; Latvia; Lithuania; vacancy posting; monetary policy shock; labor-market outcome; effect amount; monetary policy stance; Event-Study Database; COVID-19; Labor market policy; Short term interest rates; Baltics
Cover IMF Working Papers
Covered Interest Parity in Emerging Markets: Measurement and Drivers
Mai Dao
and
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
We study the behavior of Covered Interest Parity (CIP) deviations – aka the CIP basis - in Emerging Markets (EM). A major challenge in computing the CIP basis in EM’s lies in measuring local currency interest rates which are free of local credit risk. To do so, we construct a ‘purified’ CIP basis for eight major EM currencies using supranational bonds issued in EM local currencies and US dollar going back twenty years. We show that this ‘purified’ CIP basis aligns well with theory-implied predictions. In the cross-section and the timeseries, the basis correlates with fundamental forces driving supply and demand for dollar forwards. Shocks to global dollar funding costs, global intermediary’s balance sheet capacity, and the demand for dollar safe assets interact with currency-specific dollar hedging and funding needs in moving the CIP basis in EM’s.
Keywords:
Covered Interest Parity; intermediation frictions; emerging markets; forward exchange rates; CIP basis; behavior of Covered Interest Parity; currency interest rates; dollar gap; Turkish lira; Interest rate parity; Currencies; Interbank rates; Bonds; Sovereign bonds; Global