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Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

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Cover Policy Papers
Considerations for the Comprehensive Review of Access Limits
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
,
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
, and
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This paper provides background for an informal discussion to engage with Executive Directors, held on November 26, 2024, on the Comprehensive Review of GRA Access Limits. The General Resources Account (GRA) access limits are part of the Fund’s risk management framework. They help maintain a balance between the need to: (i) ensure that members have confidence in the availability of Fund financing; and (ii) preserve liquidity and the revolving nature of the Fund’s resources.
Keywords:
risk management framework; GRA lending commitment; transparency policy; managing transition; enterprise risk consideration; risk tolerance; financing needs; Credit; Liquidity; Credit risk; COVID-19; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Tonga: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Tonga
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Tonga’s economic activity has strengthened, bolstered by consistent remittance flows, continued tourism recovery, and robust construction activities. Inflationary pressures have substantially eased. After peaking at 14.1 percent in September 2022, headline inflation has since been normalizing. The near-term baseline economic outlook remains favorable appropriately supported by expansionary fiscal and monetary policy. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to accelerate to 2.4 percent in FY2025, mostly led by continued strength in domestic demand including large public investment projects and a rebound in agricultural output as the effects of El Nino dissipate. The medium-term growth prospects remain uneven, however. Tonga’s long-term growth is projected at 1.2 percent, reflecting its exposure to increasingly frequent natural disasters, persistent loss of workers to emigration, and limited economies of scale due to geographical barriers. Structural reforms with a focus on bolstering disaster resilience, advancing digital transformation, and strengthening governance frameworks to foster a conducive business environment are essential to meet Tonga’s developments goals.
Keywords:
priority safeguards assessment recommendation; Tonga authorities; reference rate; currency basket; intervention currency; Natural disasters; Debt sustainability analysis; Global; Pacific Islands; Australia and New Zealand
Cover IMF Working Papers
Beyond the Dikes: Flood Scenarios for Financial Stability Risk Analysis
Caterina Lepore
and
Junghwan Mok
We assess financial stability risks from floods in the Netherlands using a comprehensive set of flood scenarios considering different factors including geographical regions, flood types, climate conditions, return periods, and adaptation. The estimated damage from each flood scenario is used to calibrate the corresponding macro-financial scenario for bank stress tests. Our results show the importance of considering these heterogeneous factors when conducting physical climate risk stress tests, as the impact of floods on bank capital varies significantly by scenario. We find that climate change amplifies the adverse impact on banks’ capital, but stronger flood defenses in the Netherlands can help mitigate some impacts. Further, we find a non-linear relationship between flood damages and banks’ capital depletion, highlighting the importance of considering extreme scenarios.
Keywords:
Physical risk; flood scenario; banking stress test; climate risk analysis; climate risk stress tests; bank capital; Natural disasters; Climate change; Commercial banks; Housing prices; Stress testing; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Central Banks and Climate Change: Key Legal Issues
Mario Tamez
,
Hans Weenink
, and
Akihiro Yoshinaga
Well-designed legal frameworks and institutional arrangments support the legitimacy of central banks’ autonomous decision-making when grounded on sound legal basis and can prevent over-stepping in the remit of other authorities. This paper explores the key legal intersections of climate change and central banks. Climate change could impact price and finanical stability, which are at the core of a central bank’s mandate. While central banks’ legal frameworks can support climate change efforts they also determine the boundaries of the measures they can adopt. Central banks need to assess their mandate and authority under their current legal frameworks when considering measures to contribute to the global response to climate change, while taking actions to fulfill their legal mandates.
Keywords:
Climate Change; Central Bank; Legal Framework; central bank development programs; autonomous decision-making; IMF working paper No. 24/192; central bank's mandate; core objective; Financial sector stability; Climate policy; Central bank mandate; Central bank legislation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jamaica: Third Reviews Under the Arrangement Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line and the Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper focuses on Jamaica’s Third Reviews Under the Arrangement Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) and the Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). Jamaica’s response to recent shocks has strengthened the credibility of policy frameworks, supporting an economic environment characterized by sustained growth, declining debt, low inflation, and a strengthened external position. Jamaica has continued to implement an ambitious reform agenda that strengthened the fiscal and financial policy frameworks and the climate policy agenda to make the economy more resilient to climate change. Going forward, gross domestic product growth is expected to converge to potential and inflation to return to the mid-point of the target band. The PLL has supported efforts to strengthen the institutional framework for consolidated supervision of financial conglomerates, enhance the framework for the resolution of financial institutions, bring the anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism framework to international best practice, and improve data adequacy. The RSF has supported Jamaica’s ambitious agenda to accelerate the transition to renewables, increase resilience to climate change, enhance the climate focus in fiscal policy frameworks, strengthen the management of climate risks by financial institutions, and catalyze climate financing.
Keywords:
RSF reform; PLL qualification criteria; E. WB engagement; reform measure; SUSTAINABILITY facility; Climate change; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Global; Caribbean
Cover Climate Change Challenges and Opportunities in Latin America and the Caribbean
Climate Change Challenges and Opportunities in Latin America and the Caribbean

Abstract

The analysis in the book suggests that LAC countries are facing substantial challenges related to climate change but have tools at their disposal to seize the opportunities that the climate change presents. To maximize opportunities and minimize the risks LAC countries will need to improve flexibility and adaptability of their economies. Policies aimed at supporting the reallocation of labor and capital across sectors, investing in basic skills and human capital, improving transparency and economic governance to encourage investment in technology and know-how, and creating fiscal space to manage the climate transition would help LAC countries position themselves to take advantage of the opportunities afforded by the climate transition.

Keywords:
Climate; Latin America and the Caribbean; mitigation; adaptation; building resilience; IMF staff calculation; climate ambition; bank asset quality; financing climate policy; adaptation investment; Climate change; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate policy; Natural disasters; Non-renewable resources; Caribbean; Central America; Global; South America; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bangladesh: Second Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and the Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, and Requests for Rephasing of Access, a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion, and Modifications of a Performance Criterion, and Second Review Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bangladesh
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper presents Bangladesh’s Second Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and the Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, and Requests for Rephasing of Access, A Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion, and Modifications of a Performance Criterion, and Second Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility Arrangement. Bangladesh’s economy continues to face multiple challenges. Stubbornly high international commodity prices and continued global financial tightening have amplified macroeconomic vulnerabilities. Near-term policies should focus on rebuilding external resilience and bringing down inflation. The authorities’ recent actions to realign the exchange rate and implement the new exchange rate arrangement are welcome. Ongoing reforms to modernize the monetary policy framework and improve policy transmission will foster macroeconomic stability. Building resilience to climate change and natural disasters is a priority for achieving high, inclusive, and green growth. Strengthening institutions and policy coordination, improving climate spending efficiency, and mobilizing climate financing remain crucial. The launch of the Bangladesh Climate and Development Platform in collaboration with development partners is a welcome development.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; devolved climate finance approach; policy recommendation; Policy discussion; government project; climate resilience; upgrade policy approach; risk rating; SOE debt; policy coordination; loan write-off policy; policy transmission; Climate change; Commercial banks; Exchange rate arrangements; Credit; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Interim Review of The Resilience and Sustainability Trust and Review of Adequacy of Resources
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
,
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
, and
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
The Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST) provides affordable longer-term financing to help eligible IMF members address longer-term structural challenges, thereby progressing toward strengthening their prospective balance of payments stability. This paper takes stock of the initial experience with the RST—focusing on progress and challenges so far—and proposes fine-tuning RST design with a view to strengthening implementation of the Trust’s objectives. The paper also provides an assessment of the adequacy of the Trust’s resources and finds that increased near-term fundraising will be needed to meet strong demand. The Trust’s reserves remain adequate in the baseline and under a range of risk scenarios.
Keywords:
Resilience; sustainability; financing; climate change; pandemics; policy; RSF arrangement; reform package; RST design; RST financing; RST fundraising target; Climate finance; Climate policy; Natural disasters; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands-The Netherlands: Financial Sector Assessment Program- Technical Note on Climate Risk Analysis
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper presents a technical note on climate risk analysis in The Netherlands. The Netherlands is exposed to both physical and transition risks from climate change. This Financial Sector Assessment Program FSAP analyzed potential risks to financial stability posed by physical risks from floods and transition risks from nitrogen. In order to assess physical climate risks, bank stress tests were conducted against flood events under a range of scenarios encompassing diverse regions, climate conditions, and flood protection reinforcement plans with different return periods. Despite the sizeable land area in the Netherlands susceptible to flooding, the physical climate stress test has demonstrated that the banking sector exhibits resilience to flood events. As the government’s efforts to reduce nitrogen depositions continue, the banking sector could face transition risks through the credit channel, particularly if loans are extended to financially vulnerable firms in high nitrogen-emitting sectors. The Dutch government should strengthen data sharing and collaboration with floods and climate experts. Flood scenarios designed with detailed flood maps under future climate conditions would provide a more accurate assessment of both climate change impact and adaptation measures.
Keywords:
risk analysis; statistics Netherlands; flood scenario design scheme; types classification; B. flood scenario; nitrogen emission intensity; Natural disasters; Climate change; Insurance companies; Commercial banks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Nexus of Climate and Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Middle East and Central Asia
Nordine Abidi
,
Mehdi El Herradi
,
Boriana Yontcheva
, and
Ananta Dua
This paper investigates the effects of climate shocks on inflation and monetary policy in the Middle East and Central Asia (ME&CA) region. We first introduce a theoretical model to understand the impact of climate risks on headline and food inflation. In particular, the model shows how climate shocks could affect the path of policy rates through food prices. We then use local projections to estimate the impact of climate shocks on headline and food inflation. The results show that price stability is more easily achievable under positive climate conditions. Overall, our findings shed new light on the importance of considering climate-related supply shocks when designing monetary policy, particularly in countries where food makes up a significant part of the CPI-basket.
Keywords:
Monetary policy; inflation; climate change; food inflation; monetary policy in the Middle East and Central Asia; IMF working paper 24/90; monetary policy shock; food price; Food prices; Central bank policy rate; Consumer price indexes; Middle East and Central Asia; Global