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Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

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Cover Selected Issues Papers
Financial Conditions and Their Growth Implications for Qatar
Dorothy Nampewo
This paper develops a Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Qatar and uses the Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework to examine the impact of financial conditions on Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon growth. The analysis shows that the FCI is an important leading indicator of Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon growth, highlighting its predictive potential for future economic performance. The GaR framework suggests that overall, the current downside risks to Qatar’s baseline non-hydrocarbon growth projections are relatively mild.
Keywords:
Financial conditions; non-hydrocarbon growth; Qatar; GaR framework; growth projection; Qatar's baseline; copyright page; financial conditions indicator; Financial conditions index; Oil prices; Central bank policy rate; Deposit rates; Post-clearance customs audit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Samoa: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
money transfer operator; sectoral risk assessment; Australia labour mobility; transaction report; remittance corridor; risk remittance product; Remittances; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Medium taxpayer office; Correspondent banking; Financial sector; Australia and New Zealand; Pacific Islands; Global
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
Developing a Risk-Based Compliance Improvement Plan for Customs Administrations
Augusto Azael Pérez Azcárraga
,
José M García-Sanjinés
,
Rossana A San Juan
,
Selvin A Lemus
,
Philip R Wood
, and
Robert Kokoli
This technical note offers practical guidance to senior managers and technical staff in Customs administrations for developing a Compliance Improvement Plan (CIP) using an Integrated Risk Management (IRM) approach. It clearly outlines the components of a CIP based on IRM, explains what it entails for a Customs administration, and how to develop it step-by-step. Additionally, it underscores the importance of identifying and implementing tailored treatment measures for various trader segments, which is crucial for enhancing compliance levels. Furthermore, it emphasizes the need to identify key vulnerabilities within processes that may lead to the realization of risks, proposing appropriate strategies to address them. The note also highlights other critical factors that must be considered to ensure the effective implementation of a CIP.
Keywords:
Customs Administrations; risk management; integrated risk management; transactional risk management; customs compliance; compliance improvement plan; trade facilitation; segmentation; treatment measures; compliance indicators; compliance risks; institutional risk; governance; core customs processes; global risk index; core Customs process; IRM approach mean; risk management committee; compliance risk; views ofthe IMF; Customs administration core functions; Interest rate parity; Compliance improvement plans; Value-added tax; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Togo: First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Togo
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Following the shocks of recent years, fiscal expansion has helped preserve robust economic growth but has also pushed up Togo’s public debt and contributed to vulnerabilities in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). Further, despite the fiscal expansion, Togo’s progress towards the SDGs has slowed sharply. Meanwhile, undercapitalization of two important banks, while improving, has not been fully resolved so far and continues to threaten financial sector stability.
Keywords:
governance Diagnostic Assessment; staff appraisal; Togo authorities; government roadmap; IMF governance Diagnostic; IMF governance Diagnostic Assessment; Debt sustainability; Debt service; West Africa; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Armenia: Fourth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Modifications of Performance Criterion and Monetary Policy Consultation Clause-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This page presents IMF’s Fourth Review under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) and Request for Modifications of Performance Criterion and Monetary Policy Consultation Clause (MPCC) for Armenia. Armenia’s economic outlook remains positive, with strong, albeit gradually moderating, growth projected at around 6 percent in 2024 and around 5 percent in 2025, alongside low inflation. The program is broadly on track. All quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets for end-June 2024 were met, although lower than expected inflation breached the lower-inner MPCC band. The SBA, which the Armenian authorities are treating as precautionary, aims to support the government’s policy and reform agenda to preserve economic and financial stability and support strong, inclusive, and sustainable growth. Advancing structural reforms would support sustainable and inclusive growth. Continued efforts to boost labor market participation, especially among youth, women, and vulnerable groups are important. Reforms to diversify exports, improve the business environment, strengthen governance, and advance climate policy implementation are critical to enhance economic resilience and increase potential growth.
Keywords:
year-over-year inflation target; end-June headline inflation inflation rate; inflation expectation; preliminary data; Armenia's national assembly; International reserves; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of South Sudan: Third Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program with Board Involvement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of South Sudan
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper focuses on South Sudan’s Third Review under the Staff-Monitored Program with Board Involvement. Severe spillovers from the conflict in Sudan, including refugee inflows and damages to an oil pipeline, have exacerbated South Sudan’s difficult humanitarian and macroeconomic situation, resulting in an economic slowdown, sharp exchange rate depreciation, high inflation, and higher spending needs against the backdrop of large fiscal revenue losses. Discussions with the South Sudanese authorities during the Third Review of the Staff-Monitored Program with Board Involvement (PMB) focused on re-calibrating macroeconomic policy to address the impact of the external shocks. The authorities remain committed to implementing strong policies and reform measures to restore macroeconomic stability. IMF Management completed the Third review of the PMB with South Sudan. The implementation of commitments taken by the authorities under the Letter of Intent will continue to support macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability. The authorities remain committed to fiscal and monetary prudence and to implementing their medium-term reform agenda.
Keywords:
authorities' priority; government operation; VAT regime; authorities view; reform agenda; Oil production; Quasi-fiscal operations; Oil, gas and mining taxes; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of Eswatini: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Eswatini’s growth is estimated to have reached 4.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023, driven by exports of sugar and soft drink concentrates, tourism, and the communication sector, and is poised to remain in the 4.5 to 5 percent range in 2024. Unemployment remains high at 35.4 percent in 2023 and 48.7 percent among the youth, with large skill gaps and mismatches being critical factors. While social indicators need to be updated, discussions indicated that poverty, food insecurity, inequality, and gender-based violence remain important social challenges. Growth is expected to slow while inflation is projected to follow global developments and decline throughout the 5-year projection horizon. With Southern African Customs Union receipts projected to fall, the authorities are expected to exercise the expenditure restraint needed to keep debt around 40 percent of GDP. The current account is projected to remain in surplus but official reserves will likely remain low.
Keywords:
Eswatini lilangeni; BRFP liquidity Management; capital markets intermediary; SACU receipts; arrangement vis-à-vis; liquidity monitoring; International reserves; Arrears; Southern Africa; Africa; East Africa
Cover La aduana, una institución clave
La aduana, una institución clave
Fortaleciendo la administración aduanera en un mundo de cambios
Augusto Azael Pérez Azcárraga
,
Tadatsugu Matsudaira
,
Gilles Montagnat-Rentier
,
Janos Nagy
, and
R. James Clark

Abstract

Las administraciones de aduanas ven surgir nuevos retos a medida que aumenta el volumen del comercio internacional, aparece nueva tecnología y cambian los modelo de negocio. Este libro analiza los cambios y desafíos que enfrentan las administraciones de aduanas y propone formas de abordarlos. Describe los problemas que las autoridades deben tener en cuenta a la hora de elaborar su propia hoja de ruta para la modernización de las aduanas.

Keywords:
aduana; cumplimiento tributario; recaudación de impuestos; evasión fiscal; facilitación del comercio; gestión del riesgo aduanero; seguridad de fronteras; comercio; regímenes fiscales; política comercial; ingreso tributario; operadores comerciales; modernización de la aduana; tecnologías digitales; economía del sector público; administración pública; finanzas públicas; desarrollo económico; avances tecnológicos
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Togo: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Togo
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Togo continues to face headwinds, including persistent challenges of food security and terrorist attacks, while broader development needs remain acute. In baseline projections, macroeconomic performance is expected to remain robust. Against a background of a substantial strengthening of fiscal revenue and a beginning of fiscal consolidation in 2023, the macroeconomic outlook is broadly favorable. Growth is expected to remain robust, while fiscal revenue is expected to rise further. There are no substantial domestic or external disequilibria, with low inflation and a well-contained current account deficit. The discussions focused on focused on how the Togolese authorities can best (1) anchor macroeconomic stability by ensuring fiscal consolidation to enhance debt sustainability; (2) conduct structural reforms to lay the basis for sustained growth; and (3) strengthen social inclusion to accelerate progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals and support medium-term growth prospects.
Keywords:
IMF Togo team; authorities' plan; government Roadmap; anti-corruption authority; IMF work program; resident representative; Debt sustainability; Debt sustainability analysis; Global; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Arab Republic of Egypt: Third Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Monetary Policy Consultation Clause, Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion and Applicability of Performance Criteria, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper presents Arab Republic of Egypt’s Third Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Monetary Policy Consultation Clause, Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion and Applicability of Performance Criteria, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. The Egyptian authorities’ recent efforts to restore macroeconomic stability have started to yield positive results. Inflation remains elevated but is coming down. A flexible exchange rate regime remains a cornerstone of the authorities’ program. However, the regional environment remains difficult, and complex domestic policy challenges require decisive implementation of the authorities’ reform program. Continued fiscal consolidation, with strengthened revenue mobilization, to create the space needed to expand social programs. Meaningfully advancing with the structural reform program would significantly improve growth prospects. Managing the resumption of capital inflows prudently will also be important to contain potential inflationary pressures and limit the risk of future external pressures.
Keywords:
waiver request; NIR floor; consultation band; headline consumer price inflation; currency government T-bills; monetary policy committee; supplementary letter of intent; Exchange rate arrangements; Budget planning and preparation; Global