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International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This report provides an overview of the technical assistance provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the Banco de la República to support the authorities in reviewing the regulatory framework and formulating development strategies for the foreign exchange market.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper focuses on South Africa’s Central Bank Transparency Code Review. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB’s) strategic commitment to open and transparent communications should be anchored in a more robust institutional communication framework. Communications about the SARB’s role in the reform of the Gold and Foreign Exchange Contingency Reserve Account settlement framework and the implications for its financial autonomy should be further clarified. The SARB’s monetary policy framework is comprehensive, transparent and understandable, but would benefit from greater transparency about setting the inflation target, policy deliberations, and alternative risk scenarios. The SARB has significantly increased the transparency and accountability of its monetary policy framework by adopting appropriate communications vehicles to reach different audiences and by publishing model-based forecasts. The SARB would also benefit from enhancing the transparency of well-established governance arrangements and policies in some areas. It is recommended to strengthen the transparency of certain aspects of the SARB’s legal structure and autonomy, by providing a general explanation of the SARB’s legal protections and its institutional and functional autonomy.
Peter Windsor
,
Suzette J Vogelsang
,
Christiaan Henning
,
Kerwin Martin
,
Elias Omondi
,
Gerardo Rubio
, and
Jooste Steynberg
International standards and best practice supports the implementation of a risk-based solvency regime in the regulation and supervision of insurers. Several emerging market and developing economies are transitioning to such a solvency regime or planning to do so. This paper discusses Kenya, Mexico, and South Africa’s journey to putting in place a risk-based solvency regime which had several common elements notwithstanding significantly different insurance sectors. The transition was a multi-year project requiring dedicated additional resources; restructuring of the regulator, including redesigning supervisory processes and tools and upgrading information technology systems; and significantly greater coordination between the regulator and the insurance industry.
Jesper Lindé
,
Patrick Schneider
,
Nujin Suphaphiphat
, and
Hou Wang
This paper analyzes the effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention (FXI) in mitigating economic and financial shocks in India by applying the Integrated Policy Framework (IPF). It highlights how FXI can be a complementary tool in mitigating the tradeoff between output and inflation, specifically under large economic shocks amid temporarily shallow FX markets. The paper indicates that while FXI can soften adverse impacts on domestic demand and output during severe risk-off shocks, its benefits under normal conditions with liquid FX markets are limited.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Eswatini’s growth is estimated to have reached 4.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023, driven by exports of sugar and soft drink concentrates, tourism, and the communication sector, and is poised to remain in the 4.5 to 5 percent range in 2024. Unemployment remains high at 35.4 percent in 2023 and 48.7 percent among the youth, with large skill gaps and mismatches being critical factors. While social indicators need to be updated, discussions indicated that poverty, food insecurity, inequality, and gender-based violence remain important social challenges. Growth is expected to slow while inflation is projected to follow global developments and decline throughout the 5-year projection horizon. With Southern African Customs Union receipts projected to fall, the authorities are expected to exercise the expenditure restraint needed to keep debt around 40 percent of GDP. The current account is projected to remain in surplus but official reserves will likely remain low.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Lesotho’s gross domestic product growth has improved modestly, picking up to 2.2 percent in the fiscal year ending in March 2024. Inflation increased in the second half of 2023, peaking at 8.2 percent in January 2024. However, upward pressures have eased, and inflation has since fallen to 6.5 percent in June. The outlook for Lesotho’s fiscal and external balances has improved significantly owing to windfall transfers from the Southern African Customs Union and renegotiated water royalties. Key recommendations include swiftly establishing a well-governed savings framework (stabilization fund) to ensure that additional revenues are saved wisely and spent strategically, in line with the authorities’ national development goals. To this end, the authorities are encouraged to prioritize high-quality public investment, strengthen internal controls to ensure transparency and accountability, and address governance and corruption vulnerabilities. Accompanying recommendations include: enhancing public financial management, improving the business environment, and increasing financial inclusion.
International Monetary Fund
and
World Bank
This guidance note was prepared by International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group staff under a project undertaken with the support of grants from the Financial Sector Reform and Strengthening Initiative, (FIRST).The aim of the project was to deliver a report that provides emerging market and developing economies with guidance and a roadmap in developing their local currency bond markets (LCBMs). This note will also inform technical assistance missions in advising authorities on the formulation of policies to deepen LCBMs.
Kelly Eckhold
,
Julia Faltermeier
,
Darryl King
,
Istvan Mak
, and
Dmitri Petrov
This paper examines emerging market and developing economy (EMDE) central bank interventions to maintain financial stability during the COVID-19 pandemic. Through empirical analysis and case study reviews, it identifies lessons for designing future programs to address challenges faced in EMDEs, including less-developed financial markets and lower levels of institutional credibility. The focus is on the functioning of the financial markets that are key to maintaining financial stability—money, securities, and FX funding markets. Several lessons emerge, including: (i) objectives should be well-specified and communicated to facilitate eventual exit; (ii) intervention triggers should prioritize liquidity metrics over prices; (iii) actions should be sufficiently large to address market dysfunction; (iv) the risks of fiscal dominance and moral hazard should be minimized; and (v) program design should incentivize self-liquidation by appropriate pricing or through short-term operations that quickly liquidate. While interventions may increase risks to central bank balance sheets, potentially challenging policy solvency and operational independence, a well-designed framework can significantly mitigate these risks.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

After four turbulent years, the outlook for sub-Saharan Africa is gradually improving. Growth will rise from 3.4 percent in 2023 to 3.8 percent in 2024, with nearly two thirds of countries anticipating higher growth. Economic recovery is expected to continue beyond this year, with growth projections reaching 4.0 percent in 2025. Additionally, inflation has almost halved, public debt ratios have broadly stabilized, and several countries have issued Eurobonds this year, ending a two-year hiatus from international markets. However, not all is favorable. The funding squeeze persists as the region’s governments continue to grapple with financing shortages, high borrowing costs, and impending debt repayments. Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside. The region continues to be more vulnerable to global external shocks, as well as the threat of rising political instability, and frequent climate events. Three policy priorities can help countries adapt to these challenges: improving public finances without undermining development; monetary policy focused on ensuring price stability; and implementing structural reforms to diversify funding sources and economies. Amid these challenges, sub-Saharan African countries will need additional support from the international community to develop a more inclusive, sustainable, and prosperous future.

Lisa L Kolovich
and
Monique Newiak

Abstract

Efforts to achieve gender equality will not only help sub-Saharan Africa revive its inclusive growth engine but also will ensure progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals and help address the main disruptive challenges of this century. This book explores the progress made in gender equality in the region, highlighting both the challenges and successes in areas such as legal reforms; education; health; gender-based violence; harmful practices, such as child marriage; and financial inclusion. It takes stock of initiatives towards integrating gender into core macroeconomic and structural reforms, such as through implementing gender budgeting and examines the role that fiscal and other policies can play in closing gender gaps when they are mindful of distributional impacts. Drawing from extensive research across different institutions, the book underscores the macroeconomic significance of gender equality, emphasizing its potential to drive GDP growth, enhance economic stability, reduce income inequality, and foster sustainable development. It lays out how gender gaps interact with emerging challenges, such as digitalization, and explores the impact of global megatrends, such as climate change, on gender inequality, offering strategies for inclusive policy responses—including in a context where women and girls are still carrying a disproportionate care burden that is often not captured in economic measurement. The book aims to serve as a roadmap for policymakers, stakeholders, and advocates seeking to harness the untapped potential of gender equality—for its own sake and for the region's inclusive, sustainable, and green development. It calls for concerted efforts to dismantle structural barriers, transform social norms, and prioritize gender-responsive policies to unlock the full economic potential of sub-Saharan Africa.