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Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Tunisia Monetary Policy Since the Arab Spring: The Fall of the Exchange Rate Anchor and Rise of Inflation Targeting
Mr. Nicolas End
,
Mariam El Hamiani Khatat
, and
Rym Kolsi
In this paper, we argue that inflation targeting could be the future of Tunisia’s monetary policy. Monetary targeting has proven to be ineffective due to the composition of reserve money, structural liquidity deficit, and higher instability of the money multiplier after 2010. Exchange rate targeting is no longer feasible due to the level of international reserves, current account deficit, and inflation differentials with main trading partners. The Central Bank of Tunisia has already made important progress toward inflation targeting. The paper evidences the existence of increasingly effective interest rate transmission as well as the changing exchange rate passthrough to inflation with the gradual move toward further exchange rate flexibility.
Keywords:
WP; monetary policy; exchange rate; central bank; rate; monetary policy framework; inflation targeting; monetary transmission; monetary operations; foreign exchange interventions; exchange rate passthrough; external shocks; liquidity injection; Policy rate; implementation regulation; policy rate; monetary policy transmission; monetary policy implementation; Central bank policy rate; Inflation; Monetary base; Exchange rates; Monetary policy frameworks; money multiplier; transmission mechanism; Policy rate pass-through coefficient; monetary policy outcome; exchange rate targeting; pass-through coefficient; monetary policy rule; monetary policy tightening
Cover IMF Working Papers
Informality, Frictions, and Macroprudential Policy
Moez Ben Hassine
and
Mr. Nooman Rebei
We analyze the effects of macroprudential policies through the lens of an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to developing markets. In particular, we explicitly introduce informality in the labor and goods markets within a small open economy embedding financial frictions, nominal and real rigidities, labor search and matching, and an explicit banking sector. We use the estimated version of the model to run welfare analysis under optimized monetary and macroprudential rules. Results show that although informality reduces the efficiency of macroprudential policies following a convex fashion, combining the latter with an inflation targeting objective could be beneficial.
Keywords:
WP; interest rate; monetary policy; welfare gain; physical capital; inflation rate; adjustment cost; open economy; production function; interest rate rule; marginal utility; inflation targeting policy; nominal exchange rate; demand shock; Macroprudential policy; Self-employment; Consumption; Housing
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Tunisia: 2017 Article IV Consultation and Second Review Under the Extended Fund Facility, and Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Rephasing of Access
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Tunisia’s economic growth almost doubled to 1.9 percent in 2017, as confidence strengthened on the back of improved security and the unity government’s early progress with policy and reform implementation. Investment and exports remained sluggish, however. Growth is expected to reach 2.4 percent in 2018, helped by a good agricultural season and a pickup in manufacturing and tourism. The unemployment rate remains high at 15 percent. Trade data for early 2018 show an improvement in export performance, while import growth is slowing. This favorable trend is expected to continue throughout the remainder of the year, supported by a more favorable real exchange rate.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; authority; unity government; EFF arrangement; Tunisian authorities; dinar depreciation; authorities' resolve; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Credit; Inflation; Middle East; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Tunisia: First Review Under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Waivers of NonObservance of Performance Criteria and Rephasing of Access-Press Release; Staff Report;and Statement by the Executive Director for Tunisia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
A fragile economy in a complex socio-political environment. Tunisia’s political transition advanced, but social discontent remains elevated. After almost stagnating over 2015–16, growth will pick up in 2017 to 2.3 percent helped by tourism and phosphates. Structural deficiencies, an overvalued real exchange rate and weak confidence after the 2015 attacks continue to weigh on investment. Exogenous shocks and policy slippages contributed to widen the current account deficit by more than 10 percent of GDP in the first quarter of 2017. The dinar depreciated by 23 percent in nominal effective terms since end-2015; this and a broad-based rise in prices led the Central Bank to increase its policy interest rate by 75 bps to 5 percent over the last month to contain inflation below 5 percent in 2017.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; government; reform; reform priority
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Tunisia: First Review Under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Waivers of NonObservance of Performance Criteria and Rephasing of Access-Press Release; Staff Report;and Statement by the Executive Director for Tunisia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Tunisia’s First Review Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria and Rephasing of Access. Most quantitative performance criteria (QPCs) for end-December 2016 were missed and all structural benchmarks (SBs) through March 2017 were delayed. Most delayed SBs, including on private sector legislation, performance contracts for public banks, the civil service strategy, and the large taxpayers unit are now completed. The remaining ones will be achieved by end-2017. The IMF staff recommends the completion of the EFF review and supports the authorities’ request for rephasing of access and waivers of nonobservance of end-December QPCs.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; government; reform; reform priority; EFF arrangement; Tunisian authorities; tax package; government program; GDP cycle; Government debt management; Credit; Africa; Middle East; West Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Tunisia: Request for an Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Tunisia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper presents an overview of the macroeconomic condition of Tunisia. Tunisia has managed to preserve macroeconomic stability and initiate fiscal and banking reforms in a context marked by a prolonged political transition, spillovers from the crisis in Libya, and numerous exogenous shocks, including terror attacks. However, important vulnerabilities remain: economic activity is weak, employment is low, social tensions linger, spending composition has deteriorated, and external imbalances are high. To tackle these issues, Tunisia formulated a five-year (2016–20) economic vision in 2015, which is being developed into a detailed plan. The vision aims at promoting stronger and more inclusive growth in Tunisia.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; government presence; business plan; Tunisian authorities; amount; government equity share; government decree; guarantee fund; Civil service reform; Energy subsidies; Credit; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Macroprudential Policy and Financial Stability in the Arab Region
Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad
,
Heba Abdel Monem
, and
Pilar Garcia Martinez
Several characteristics of the structure of the Arab economies, their economic policy framework, and their banking systems make macroprudential policy a particular relevant tool. For most oil exporters, heavy reliance on the extractive sector for generating fiscal revenues and export earnings translates into increased vulnerabilities to oil price shocks. In the case of oil importers, relatively small external and fiscal buffers make them highly vulnerable to shocks. This paper discusses the experience of Arab countries in implementing macroprudential policies and contains recommendations to strengthen their macroprudential framework.
Keywords:
WP; capital market; banking sector; legal reserve; price index; liquidity window; market cap; private sector; Macroprudential policy; systemic risk; credit; financial stability; a number of central banks; supervisory function; countries central banks; liquidity level; monetary policy independence; liquidity regulation; capital market authority; FX loan; Financial sector stability; Macroprudential policy instruments; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Tunisia: 2015 Article IV Consultation, Sixth Review under the Stand-By Arrangement, and Request for Rephasing-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Tunisia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Tunisia’s economy has been resilient throughout a protracted political transition and a difficult international economic environment. The country has been facing headwinds from security threats and social tensions, which are offsetting the benefits from the successful conclusion of the political transition, lower international oil prices, and a recovering Europe. The banking system remains fragile, with the system’s capital adequacy ratio below the minimum regulatory requirement. The medium-term prospects remain favorable, with growth projected to increase to 4.7 percent by 2020.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Tier 1; Banque de l'Habitat; recapitalization of Banque de l'Habitat; Société Tunisienne des Banques; capital injection; wage bill; staff appraisal; State-owned banks; Credit; Commercial banks; Loans; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Tunisia: Request for An Extension of the Stand-By Arrangement—Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Tunisia’s Request for an Extension of the Stand-By Arrangement. The sixth review, originally scheduled to take place before end-March 2015, was delayed. Although quantitative performance criteria for end-December 2014 and end-March 2015 are likely to have been met, the structural reform agenda did not advance as expected, mainly reflecting the authorities’ focus on the formation of a coalition government and the approval of internal regulations for the newly elected parliament. The adoption of long-awaited legislation necessary to promote more inclusive growth and reduce vulnerabilities remains outstanding in many areas. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for an extension of the arrangement until December 31, 2015.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Stand-by Arrangement; Tunisia; reform agenda; discussion; Tunis; SBA in the amount of SDR; extension of the Stand-by Arrangement; Tunisian authorities; Bank resolution framework; Bank resolution; Inclusive growth
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Tunisie : demande d’extension de l’accord de confirmation — communiqué de presse et rapport des services du FMI
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Le Conseil d'administration du Fonds monétaire international (FMI) a approuvé le 11 mai 2015 — la décision a été prise sans réunion du Conseil1 — une extension de sept mois, jusqu'au 31 décembre 2015, de l'accord de confirmation avec la Tunisie. Cette extension donnera aux autorités tunisiennes le temps d'appliquer les mesures requises pour tenir les engagements futurs — concernant notamment les réformes bancaire et budgétaire — qui contribueront à réduire les vulnérabilités de l'économie et à promouvoir une croissance plus forte et solidaire. Une mission se rendra à Tunis fin mai 2015 pour mener les consultations au titre de l'article IV et procéder à la sixième revue de l'accord de confirmation. L’accord de confirmation de deux ans, d’un montant de 1,146 milliard de DTS (environ 1,75 milliard de dollars, soit 400 % de la quote-part de la Tunisie au FMI) a été approuvé par le Conseil d’administration le 7 juin 2013 (voir communiqué de presse 13/202). Après la conclusion de la cinquième revue en décembre 2014, les décaissements au titre de cet accord ont atteint 787,875 millions de DTS (environ 1,15 milliard de dollars).
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Stand-by Arrangement; Tunisia; reform agenda; discussion; Tunis