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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Eswatini’s growth is estimated to have reached 4.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023, driven by exports of sugar and soft drink concentrates, tourism, and the communication sector, and is poised to remain in the 4.5 to 5 percent range in 2024. Unemployment remains high at 35.4 percent in 2023 and 48.7 percent among the youth, with large skill gaps and mismatches being critical factors. While social indicators need to be updated, discussions indicated that poverty, food insecurity, inequality, and gender-based violence remain important social challenges. Growth is expected to slow while inflation is projected to follow global developments and decline throughout the 5-year projection horizon. With Southern African Customs Union receipts projected to fall, the authorities are expected to exercise the expenditure restraint needed to keep debt around 40 percent of GDP. The current account is projected to remain in surplus but official reserves will likely remain low.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic is having a severe impact on Eswatini’s economy at a time when the country is already facing deep economic challenges, and the government has begun fiscal consolidation efforts. A national lockdown to contain the spread of the virus, disruptions in supply chains, and lower external demand for key exports are curtailing economic activity. While the authorities’ policy response has been timely and proactive, the economic shock and containment policies are triggering a severe recession with significant social costs, and have created urgent balance of payments needs. The pandemic is unfolding in a context of high prevalence of HIV/AIDS and a stretched health care system, which increase Eswatini’s vulnerability.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with the Kingdom of Eswatini highlights that the financial system remains sound, although vulnerabilities are rising. Hence, bank supervision should be intensified, the early intervention regime strengthened, and plans to relax single borrower concentration regulations suspended. The paper explains that the authorities have recently taken some policy actions toward stabilizing the economy. However, reflecting expansionary spending policies and declining Southern African Customs Union revenue, public debt is still rising, domestic arrears have accumulated, and international reserves have fallen below adequate levels. Supply side and governance reforms are needed to support private investment and strengthen competitiveness. Reforms should reduce vulnerabilities to state-capture and other forms of corruption, streamline business regulations and regulatory requirements, reduce high electricity and telecommunications costs, contain wage growth, and address shortages of skilled workers. A credible medium-term fiscal adjustment plan, starting with measures to reduce next year’s fiscal deficit, is needed to bring the economy on a sustainable path. Policies should combine expenditure reductions and revenue increases that enhance long-term growth prospects. Expanding and better targeting cash transfers would help protect the poor.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
KEY ISSUES Setting: Swaziland has gradually recovered from the fiscal crisis of 2010-11, buoyed by the improved revenues from the Southern African Customs Union (SACU). Growth modestly recovered, and international reserves rebounded. Swaziland’s challenges, however, remain significant, in view of its high vulnerability to exogenous shocks and its sluggish growth performance, while facing significant social and development challenges with high unemployment and the prevalence of HIV/AIDS. Swaziland now stands at a critical juncture to strengthen its resilience to exogenous shocks, address its weak growth performance, and meet critical social and development needs. Outlook and risks: Under the status-quo policies, the outlook is for continued sluggish growth and increasing fiscal and external imbalances, reflecting low private investment, elevated government spending, and prospective decline in SACU revenues. Risks are associated with the high volatility of the SACU revenues, possible negative spillovers from South Africa (including higher policy rate and lower growth), and uncertain prospects for preferential trade agreements with the U.S. and EU. Strengthening Resilience to Shocks: Over the medium term, international reserves should be targeted at five to seven months of imports, and public debt be kept below 30 percent of GDP. This calls for a prudent fiscal policy stance, with fiscal deficit below 2 percent of GDP. Raising growth: It is essential to enhance the efficiency of the public sector and promote private sector-led growth through structural reforms including improving business climate and accelerating land reforms. Maintaining financial stability: Financial soundness indicators are generally strong. The strong growth of the nonbank financial sector in recent years calls for strengthening of supervision and regulation for the sector. Past advice: There is broad agreement between the Fund and the authorities on macroeconomic policy and structural reform priorities. With the authorities’ fiscal consolidation efforts and the improved SACU revenues, fiscal and external sustainability is being restored, consistent with staff’s advice. However, progress on structural reforms—including re-launching the privatization process, improving access to modern finance and improving the business climate—has been modest.
International Monetary Fund
The fiscal crisis in the Kingdom of Swaziland emanating from a decline in revenue from the Southern African Customs Union and one of the largest public wage bills in sub-Saharan Africa has reached a critical stage. Faced with revenue shortfalls associated with slowing economic activity, uncontrolled public spending, and lack of financing, the authorities continued to deplete central bank reserves and accumulate domestic arrears. The authorities have been able to finance only a minimal amount of expenditure, including wages, utilities, and essential transfers.
International Monetary Fund
The Swaziland economy continues to underperform, reflecting the impact of the global economic crisis. The impact of the crisis has been felt mostly in revenue transfers of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) to Swaziland. Executive Directors welcomed Fiscal Adjustment Roadmap (FAR), which focused on restoring fiscal sustainability, improving competitiveness, and strengthening financial supervision. They noted that key challenges are restoring fiscal sustainability, addressing HIV/AIDS, reducing poverty, and creating employment. Directors emphasized the need for fiscal adjustment and budgetary reforms. Directors noted that the banking system remains in good health.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix for the Kingdom of Swaziland assesses the interaction of nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs) within the financial system and the real economy. Understanding the type of flows will help in designing policies to better manage capital flows and allow higher interest rate; and more attractive domestic investment opportunities could reduce outflows. The current global financial crisis provides useful lessons on the importance of an efficient regulatory and supervisory framework. However, regulation should be in line with economic structures and the stage of economic development.
International Monetary Fund
The current high Southern African Customs Unions revenues should be used to implement fiscal measures to secure fiscal sustainability and support economic growth. The government should formulate a financial sector strategy that addresses Swaziland’s twin challenges of enhancing financial development and ensuring financial stability. Compounding the threat to exports of sugar and textiles is the looming issue of remaining competitive in a quickly changing global environment. The statistics on export and import, gross domestic product, assets and liabilities, and other such data have also been provided.
International Monetary Fund
This 2006 Article IV Consultation highlights that Swaziland’s economic performance has remained weak with growth averaging only 2 percent since 2000, owing to a substantial real appreciation of the lilangeni during 2002–04, erosion of trade preferences, recurrent drought, and stagnant investment. Over that same period, rising government expenditures, especially on the wage bill, undermined fiscal sustainability and reduced foreign reserves to critically low levels. Poverty has escalated in the face of high and rising unemployment, food shortages, and the world’s highest HIV/AIDS infection rate.
International Monetary Fund
Economic growth in Swaziland has weakened over the past decade. This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that real GDP growth decelerated to 2.1 percent in 2004 and an estimated 1.8 percent in 2005. A prolonged drought affected agricultural output, particularly maize, the main staple crop, and cotton. The authorities completed a “Poverty Reduction Strategy and Action Plan” in October 2004. The document spells out policies with the overall objective of halving the 1995 poverty rate by 2015. However, little progress has been made toward this and other Millennium Development Goals.