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Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

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Cover Selected Issues Papers
Recent Challenges to the Conduct of Monetary Policy in the WAEMU: WAEMU
Alain Feler
and
Lawrence Norton
This paper discusses recent challenges in BCEAO monetary policy, from a recent spike in inflation, the persistent erosion of external reserves, and strains in the regional financial market. In response to these shocks, the BCEAO operated via both policy rates and liquidity management, including by shifting from fixed to variable rate auctions. The paper finds that the conduct of monetary policy became progressively more constrained by financial stability and external viability challenges, arguing for enhanced monetary-fiscal policy coordination to help the BCEAO meet its reserves objectives.
Keywords:
BCEAO; WAEMU; monetary policy; CFA franc; BCEAO purchase; conduct of monetary policy; viability challenge; BCEAO refinancing; FX reserve; Liquidity; Central bank policy rate; Securities; Financial sector stability; International reserves; Global; West Africa
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Key Banking System Risks in the WAEMU: WAEMU
Knarik Ayvazyan
The gradual alignment of prudential regulations on Basel II/III standards since 2018, as well as improvements in banking supervision and macroprudential surveillance, have contributed to the WAEMU’s banking system’s resilience to recent global and regional shocks. However, while cyclical vulnerabilities have been contained, bank credit portfolios remain highly concentrated, and their exposure to sovereign risks has grown substantially in recent years, together with liquidity risks. Further reforms building on those recently implemented in line with recommendations from the 2022 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP), including to enhance macroprudential policy’s effectiveness and banking supervision frameworks, will help address such vulnerabilities.
Keywords:
WAEMU; banks; risk; stress test; financial stability; credit gap; banking system's resilience; bank credit portfolio; Banking System risk; banking supervision framework; risks in the WAEMU; Commercial banks; Government securities; Securities; Market risk; Macroprudential policy; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa, April 2024
Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa, April 2024
A Tepid and Pricey Recovery
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

After four turbulent years, the outlook for sub-Saharan Africa is gradually improving. Growth will rise from 3.4 percent in 2023 to 3.8 percent in 2024, with nearly two thirds of countries anticipating higher growth. Economic recovery is expected to continue beyond this year, with growth projections reaching 4.0 percent in 2025. Additionally, inflation has almost halved, public debt ratios have broadly stabilized, and several countries have issued Eurobonds this year, ending a two-year hiatus from international markets. However, not all is favorable. The funding squeeze persists as the region’s governments continue to grapple with financing shortages, high borrowing costs, and impending debt repayments. Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside. The region continues to be more vulnerable to global external shocks, as well as the threat of rising political instability, and frequent climate events. Three policy priorities can help countries adapt to these challenges: improving public finances without undermining development; monetary policy focused on ensuring price stability; and implementing structural reforms to diversify funding sources and economies. Amid these challenges, sub-Saharan African countries will need additional support from the international community to develop a more inclusive, sustainable, and prosperous future.

Keywords:
Sub-Saharan Africa; Slow recovery; Funding squeeze; Monetary policy; Economic diversification; Structural reforms; International support; IMF staff calculation; headline inflation; public finance; IMF financing arrangement; borrowing costs entail; sub-Saharan Africa face; Inflation; Central bank policy rate; Fiscal consolidation; Price stabilization; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
West African Economic and Monetary Union: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on securing fiscal discipline and credibility in West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). Fiscal consolidation and the reintroduction of the WAEMU fiscal framework Pact—is crucial for maintaining debt sustainability, external viability, and financial stability, while promoting access to lower cost financing and rebuilding fiscal buffers. Members’ adjustment plans should emphasize domestic revenue mobilization, while controlling expenditure, notably the wage bill. In order to enhance fiscal credibility, and maximize prospects for debt sustainability, financial stability and external viability, it is essential and urgent to reintroduce regional fiscal rules at the original ceilings—3 percent gross domestic product (GDP) for deficit and 70 percent GDP for debt. It is also essential to implement a consistent definition of fiscal indicators across the region, avoiding carve-outs for particular spending items. In order to secure fiscal discipline and credibility, it is critical to establish effective mechanisms for assessment, accountability, and enforcement, including by defining a credible debt correction mechanism and exogenous escape clauses, as well as building an effective communication strategy.
Keywords:
deficit ceiling; climate adaption; WAEMU level; WAEMU population; WAEMU lag; Gender inequality; Climate change; Agricultural commodities; Women; Securities; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; West Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sub-Saharan Africa’s Risk Perception Premium: In the Search of Missing Factors
William Gbohoui
,
Rasmané Ouedraogo
, and
Yirbehogre Modeste Some
Policymakers from the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region often flag a mispricing of their sovereign debt presumably originating from a perception risk by international investors that lead to "unjustifiably" high borrowing costs. Against this background, this paper explores the extent to which a potential SSA premium exists in the financial markets following a broader two-fold approach. Firstly, using a sample of 1592 international primary sovereign fixed coupon bonds issued between 2003-2021 from Bond Radar by 89 countries, we find that SSA countries pay significantly higher coupon at issuance compared to their peers from other regions. Secondly, we assess whether there is any bias against SSA countries in the secondary market that would result in higher refinancing cost. Based on an unbalanced panel of quarterly data covering 107 countries over 1990 – 2022, we find that SSA countries pay higher refinancing costs in the secondary market. The paper further explores whether there are other factors overlooked by the literature that matter for the risk pricing by international investors. In that respect, we explore the sensitivity of spreads to some structural dimensions where SSA countries face acute challenges―the transparency of budget process, the importance of the informal sector, the level of financial development, and the quality of public institutions. The results show that the excess premium estimated for SSA countries vanishes when these structural factors are accounted for in the regressions.
Keywords:
perception premium; SSA country; policymakers from the sub-Saharan Africa; SSA premium; IMF WP 23/130; c. robustness; Return on investment; Sovereign bonds; Yield curve; Bonds; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
West African Economic and Monetary Union: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing Terrorism (AML-CFT) Supervision of the Banking Sector
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This technical note discusses anti-money laundering and combating the financing terrorism (AML-CFT) supervision of the banking sector in West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). The decision to focus on the AML/CFT supervision of the WAEMU banking sector was based on the remit of the regional authorities; the importance to the regional economy of a well-integrated and well-functioning banking sector; and the results of money laundering and terrorist financing national risk assessments conducted to date in West Africa, which identify banks as relatively high-risk financial institutions. The AML/CFT off-site supervision program feeds into the risk-rating process but is not itself risk-based and communication with supervised entities is insufficient. Feedback to banks as part of off-site supervision should be enhanced, the on-site inspection methodology should be sharpened, and the risk-based approach should be fully implemented. The observations and recommendations in this report are based on discussions with regional and national authorities and the private sector as well as a review of relevant templates.
Keywords:
IMF-World Bank Financial Sector Assessment Program; IMF finance competitiveness; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; TF risk; World Bank staff; FSAP's finding; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Commercial banks; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Internal controls; Bank supervision; West Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
West African Economic and Monetary Union: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Detailed Assessment Report on the Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision: West African Economic and Monetary Union: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Detailed Assessment Report on the Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The BCEAO has conducted a comprehensive reform during the past five years. The regulatory and prudential framework were aligned with international standards and the conditions for supervision have been strengthened, although the efforts must be continued (liquidity ratio/net stable funding ratio and tools for monitoring liquidity, transfers of ownership, acquisitions of holdings, guidelines on nonperforming claims, and anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism—AML-CFT). The transition to Basel III has made it possible to incorporate additional capital requirements, while the rules applicable to credit institutions were upgraded with the 2017 publication of four circulars on governance, risk management, internal supervision, and compliance.
Keywords:
IMF-World Bank Financial Sector Assessment Program; WAMU banking commission; market infrastructure; FSAP assessment's finding; banking landscape; Market risk; Credit; Bank legislation; Credit risk; Operational risk; West Africa; Global; Africa; Maghreb; Central Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Quarterly Projection Model for the WAEMU
Carlos de Resende
,
Alsim Fall
, and
Demba Sy
This study describes a semi-structural New-Keynesian Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) for the WAEMU zone. In the context of a fixed exchange rate regime and relatively tight capital controls, the central bank for the WAEMU monetary union (Banque Centrale des États de l’Afrique de l’Ouest, BCEAO) can exert some influence on the domestic money markets and interest rates. We adjusted the canonical version of a New Keynesian semi-structural Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) to capture that feature and other aspects specific to the BCEAO monetary policy framework, including an implicit foreign exchange reserve target. The model, which is parametrized though and mix of calibration and Bayesian estimation techniques, displays dynamic properties for the main variables in response to various shocks that are in line with theoretical priors and empirical evidence. Medium-term forecasts considering the Covid-19 pandemic produce sensible results when compared with forecast produced by a standard VAR. Moments computed from artificial data generated with the model match well those observed in the data. Overall, the model displays desirable analytical properties and sensible data-matching and forecasting capabilities and could, therefore, be used by the BCEAO to identify relevant shocks, map their propagation into the WAEMU regional economy, and better support its monetary policy decisions.
Keywords:
WAEMU; BCEAO; Quarterly Projection Model; Monetary Policy; Transmission Mechanism; BCEAO monetary policy framework; cost-push shock; monetary policy shock; projection model; aggregate demand shock; International reserves; Inflation; Exchange rate arrangements; Return on investment; Real exchange rates; Global; West Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
West African Economic and Monetary Union: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Systemic Risks and Macroprudential Policy Framework
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Since the 2008 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP), the financial sector of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) has undergone major changes that have altered its risk profile. Three structural changes have played a key role since the 2008 FSAP: (i) the financial sector has grown significantly; (ii) regional banking groups have become dominant; and (iii) the high concentration of bank portfolios in sovereign exposures, which accounted for an average of 31 percent of banking assets at end-2020, are almost triple the level observed in 2004. These changes have altered the structure of systemic risks and vulnerabilities and raised the need for implementing reforms to strengthen the effectiveness of the macroprudential policy and banking supervision frameworks.
Keywords:
Basel-type liquidity ratios; contagion risk; bank portfolio; WAEMU bank holding; risk profile; IMF-World Bank Financial Sector Assessment Program; bank assets; verifiable liquidity indicator; Macroprudential policy; Financial sector stability; Systemic risk; Commercial banks; Financial sector risk; West Africa; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe; North Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
West African Economic and Monetary Union: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Financial Safety Net and Crisis Preparedness
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The institutional and legal frameworks for financial stability in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) have seen significant progress since the previous Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) in 2008. 1 The institutional reform of the WAEMU and the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) in 2010 clarified the respective mandates and responsibilities of the latter and the WAEMU Banking Commission (CBU), and it strengthened the CBU’s legal autonomy and enforcement powers. A new banking law adopted in 2010 established an overall framework for the operation and supervision of banking activities, which has been rendered more proactive and risk based with the gradual implementation of the Basel II/III mechanism initiated in 2016. A bank resolution regime was introduced in 2015 and the mandate of the deposit guarantee fund, created in 2014, was expanded to bank resolution funding in 2018. A macroprudential policy framework, including for monitoring systemic financial sector risks, was developed around the BCEAO and the Financial Stability Committee (CSF-UMOA) in 2010. This series of reforms has greatly enhanced the robustness of the financial safety net via its four components: the early intervention mechanism, the bank resolution regime, the deposit insurance system, and the emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) mechanism.
Keywords:
IMF-World Bank Financial Sector Assessment Program; CBU decision; WAEMU Banking Commission; Bancaire de l'UMOA; CBU staff; BCEAO governor; Bank resolution framework; Bank resolution; Crisis management; Financial safety nets; Credit; West Africa