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Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 459 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Energy: Demand and Supply; Prices x
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Cover Selected Issues Papers
Financial Conditions and Their Growth Implications for Qatar
Dorothy Nampewo
This paper develops a Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Qatar and uses the Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework to examine the impact of financial conditions on Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon growth. The analysis shows that the FCI is an important leading indicator of Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon growth, highlighting its predictive potential for future economic performance. The GaR framework suggests that overall, the current downside risks to Qatar’s baseline non-hydrocarbon growth projections are relatively mild.
Keywords:
Financial conditions; non-hydrocarbon growth; Qatar; GaR framework; growth projection; Qatar's baseline; copyright page; financial conditions indicator; Financial conditions index; Oil prices; Central bank policy rate; Deposit rates; Post-clearance customs audit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
ليبيا: مشاورات المادة الر ابعة لعام 2024 - البيان الصحفي، وتقرير الخبراء، وبيان المدير التنفيذي الممثل لل
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
لا تزال ليبيا دولة هشة عالقة في حالة من عدم اليقين السياسي. حلقات أصبح الصراع النشط أقل تواترا ، لكن البلاد لا تزال منقسمة بحكم الأمر الواقع بين الغرب والشرق ومجزأة بين الميليشيات المختلفة مع أهداف متنافسة. معوقات الاقتصاد السياسي وعدم كفاية القدرات إعاقة قدرة السلطات على تنفيذ المشورة التي يقدمها الصندوق بشأن السياسات.
Keywords:
ليبيا : مشاورات المادة الر ابعة لعام 2024 - البيان الصحفي، وتقرير الخبراء، وبيان المدير التنفيذي الممثل لليبيا
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Germany: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Germany
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that the German economy has begun to recover from the energy-price shock. Gradual economic recovery is expected to continue this year. With wage growth now exceeding inflation, private consumption is expected to drive recovery during 2024. High interest rates have boosted bank profitability, but part of this increase is likely temporary. High interest rates have exposed vulnerabilities in banks’ financing of commercial real estate activity. Risks to growth are broadly balanced, with both positive and negative surprises to consumer and investor sentiment possible. Inflation is expected to slowly fall to around 2 percent as lower wholesale energy prices continue to pass through supply chains and to end-users. Fiscal policy is tight, putting the debt-to-gross domestic product ratio on a downward path, although public investment is also relatively low. In order to stabilize labor supply, the authorities should make it easier for women to work full time. This means expanding access to reliable child- and eldercare services and exploring ways to reduce the effective marginal tax rate on second earners in married couples.
Keywords:
article IV consultation discussion; supervisory authority; currency of Germany; energy-price shock; state's ability; Inflation; Labor markets; Public investment spending; Commercial banks; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Libya: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Libya
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Libya remains a fragile state trapped in political uncertainty, but the episodes of active conflict have become less frequent. The outlook continues to be dominated by the dynamics of hydrocarbon production. Libya needs to manage public expenditure consistent with its macroeconomic constraints, and requires proper budgeting to avoid procyclical spending, and improve coordination between fiscal and monetary policies. Completing the central bank reunification remains key to maintaining financial stability, along with reforms on strengthening monetary policy and updates to the banking supervision framework. The baseline projection is for declining fiscal and external balances over the coming years, in line with a projected decline in global oil prices. The Central Bank of Libya is expected to maintain the current stock of international reserves, and the country will continue to have no public debt as conventionally understood. However, the balance of risks is tilted to the downside, and uncertainty remains high due to the continuing political stalemate and possible geopolitical spillovers.
Keywords:
clearance certificate; balance of payments reason; METAC mission; certificate of payment; staff's assessment; Exchange rates; Exchange restrictions; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nigeria: Post-Financing Assessment Discussions-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Nigeria’s post-financing assessment discussions. President Tinubu has moved ahead with important structural reforms: removing fuel subsidies and unifying the various official foreign exchange windows. Growth is projected at 2.9 percent for 2023, and 3 percent in 2024, as hydrocarbon performance revives, including from better control of theft. If the authorities succeed in developing and implementing a comprehensive reform agenda, the medium-term outlook would be much improved. The government’s focus on revenue mobilization and digitalization would improve public service delivery and safeguard fiscal sustainability. The IMF staff assesses that Nigeria’s capacity to repay the Fund is adequate under the baseline. The authorities’ policy intentions are well placed to address risks of a downside scenario where difficult trade-offs may arise between urgent humanitarian needs and debt service, including to the Fund. In such circumstances, aggressive monetary tightening and fiscal adjustment combined with support from development partners would be needed to restore macroeconomic stability.
Keywords:
analytical balance balance sheet; inflation-depreciation spiral; government support; CBN team; CBN financing; CBN definition; Energy subsidies; Inflation; International reserves; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Azerbaijan: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Azerbaijan discusses that growth is moderating following a strong post-pandemic rebound, and inflation is easing. The near-term challenge is to resume fiscal consolidation following a temporary easing and to ensure that inflation—, which has recently returned to the target band—does not reignite amid external risks and domestic pressures. In the medium to long term, Azerbaijan’s biggest challenge is to reduce dependence on the hydrocarbon sector and advance private sector-led economic diversification. The paper recommends pursuing fiscal adjustment. Following the fiscal easing in 2023, fiscal consolidation should resume. The report also highlights that it is important to strengthen financial supervision. Financial soundness indicators point to a sound banking sector, but vigilance is needed. Diversification will entail reforms to strengthen governance, limit the role of the state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and de-carbonize the economy. Progress on increasing fiscal transparency and judicial independence, as well as ongoing efforts to increase private sector participation in SOEs and improve their financial position, will help improve the business environment, increase private investment, and enhance productivity.
Keywords:
inflation risk; monetary policy stance; banking sector interest rate; reserve assets adequacy; GDP estimate; summary data page; Inflation; Oil prices; Oil sector; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Europe; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ecuador: Ex-Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access under the 2020 Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ecuador
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Ecuador’s Ex-Post Evaluation of Exceptional (EPE) Access under the 2020 Extended Fund Facility (EFF). The EPE report finds that the EFF program achieved its primary objective of restoring macroeconomic stability against the backdrop of a historic economic downturn. Most of the program conditionality was eventually implemented, despite some delays to fiscal and structural reforms. The authorities strengthened fiscal buffers, taking advantage of higher oil prices. Fiscal structural reforms comprehensively revamped Ecuador’s fiscal framework, although their successful implementation will hinge on building and retaining institutional capacity. The report also finds that extensive technical assistance provided to the authorities has helped to strengthen capacity in critical areas, especially fiscal accounting. The report also finds that extensive technical assistance provided to the authorities has helped to strengthen capacity in critical areas, especially fiscal accounting. Ultimately, reform efforts will need to be reinvigorated to ensure fiscal sustainability and restore market access. Finally, the EPE finds that Fund policies and procedures for financing under exceptional access were followed.
Keywords:
EFF arrangement; dollarization regime; EFF program; fund policy; EFF approval; Oil prices; Energy subsidies; Fiscal consolidation; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Europe, November 2023
Regional Economic Outlook, Europe, November 2023
Restoring Price Stability and Securing Strong and Green Growth
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

Europe is at a turning point. After last year’s crippling energy price shock caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe faces the difficult task of restoring price stability now while securing strong and green growth in the medium term. Economic activity has started to cool and inflation to fall as a result of monetary policy action, phasing-out supply shocks, and falling energy prices. Sustained wage growth could, however, delay achieving price stability by 2025. Failing to tackle inflation now will risk additional growth damage in a world exposed to structural shocks from fragmentation and climate change. These global headwinds add to Europe’s long-standing productivity and convergence problems. To lift Europe’s potential for strong and green growth, countries need to remove obstacles to economic dynamism and upgrade infrastructure. This will strengthen business-friendly conditions and investment. Cooperation at the European level and with international partners will position Europe as a leader in the climate transition and support economic stability across the continent.

Keywords:
inflation; growth; monetary policy; labor; headline inflation; core inflation; coverage ratio; IMF staff calculation; inflation expectation; capitalization rate; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Central bank policy rate; Energy prices; Labor markets; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Policy Transmission Heterogeneity: Cross-Country Evidence
Mr. Pragyan Deb
,
Julia Estefania-Flores
,
Melih Firat
,
Davide Furceri
, and
Siddharth Kothari
This paper revisits the transmission of monetary policy by constructing a novel dataset of monetary policy shocks for an unbalanced sample of 33 advanced and emerging market economies during the period 1991Q2-2023Q2. Our findings reveal that tightening monetary policy swiftly and negatively impacts economic activity, but the effects on inflation and inflation expectations takes time to fully materialize. Notably, there exist significant heterogeneities in the transmission of monetary policy across countries and time, depending on structural characteristics and cyclical conditions. Across countries, monetary policy is more effective in countries with flexible exchange rate regime, more developed financial systems, and credible monetary policy frameworks. In addition, we find that monetary policy transmission is stronger when uncertainty is low, financial conditions are tight and monetary policy is coordinated with fiscal policy—that is, when the stances move in the same direction.
Keywords:
Monetary policy transmission; heterogeneity; inflation; statedependence; monetary policy shock; monetary policy transmission heterogeneity; transmission of monetary policy; inflation expectation; Exchange rate arrangements; Consumer price indexes; Central bank transparency; Energy prices; Western Hemisphere; Western Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Brunei Darussalam: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper discusses the potential role of carbon pricing for climate mitigation and revenue diversification strategy in Brunei Darussalam. Carbon pricing schemes are gaining momentum worldwide, including in Asia. The paper provides guidance on the choice between carbon taxes and emissions trading systems and their design. The paper compares the impact of several mitigation policies modelled for illustration in Brunei Darussalam. All policies reduce carbon dioxide emissions below baseline levels by 10-50 percent by 2030, with most of the reductions coming from the power generation and industry sectors. The policies also raise revenues equivalent to 1.6–7.2 percent of gross domestic product above the baseline in 2030. The policy yielding the most of emissions reduction and the most revenues is the combination policy of a carbon tax reaching $50 per tonne by 2030 and the fuel subsidies phase-out. The policy yielding smallest emissions reduction and revenues is feebates.
Keywords:
carbon pricing revenue; supply and demand demand shock; government digitalization; stakeholder agency; inflation decomposition; Carbon tax; Greenhouse gas emissions; Inflation; Fiscal stance; Global; Southeast Asia