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Abstract

The analysis in the book suggests that LAC countries are facing substantial challenges related to climate change but have tools at their disposal to seize the opportunities that the climate change presents. To maximize opportunities and minimize the risks LAC countries will need to improve flexibility and adaptability of their economies. Policies aimed at supporting the reallocation of labor and capital across sectors, investing in basic skills and human capital, improving transparency and economic governance to encourage investment in technology and know-how, and creating fiscal space to manage the climate transition would help LAC countries position themselves to take advantage of the opportunities afforded by the climate transition.

Can Sever
and
Manuel Perez-Archila
This paper builds a framework to quantify the financial stability implications of climate-related transition risk in Colombia. We explore risks imposed on the banking system based on scenarios of an increase in the domestic carbon tax by using bank- and firm-level data. Focusing on the deterioration of firms’ balance sheets and the exposure of banks to different sectors, we assess the extent to which such policy shock would transmit from nonfinancial firms to the banking system. We observe that sectors are affected unevenly by a higher carbon tax. Agriculture, manufacturing, electricity, wholesale and retail trade, and transportation sectors appear to be the most important in the transmission of the risk to the banking system. Results also suggest that a large increase in the carbon tax can generate significant but likely manageable financial stability risks, and that a gradual increase in the carbon tax to meet a higher target over several years could be preferable in terms of financial risks. A gradual increase would also have the benefit of allowing for a smoother adjustment to higher carbon tax for stakeholders.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on Sudan provides a first stock-taking of the scale, main transmission channels and potential costs of poor governance and corruption in Sudan and offers preliminary recommendations. A large body of literature and country analyses confirm that weak governance and corruption undermine economic growth, amplify income inequality and erode public trust in the institutions. According to international agencies and existing literature, Sudan has scored very poorly on compliance with rule of law best practices in the past. Effective implementation of preventive measures is important; particularly in relation to politically exposed persons. Transparency on beneficial ownership of legal persons and arrangements to prevent their misuse for laundering the proceeds of corruption are necessary. Transparency, accountability, and comprehensive communication should be the backbone of governance and anti-corruption reforms in each sector. Rationalizing tax exemptions and phasing out tax holidays would strengthen governance while boosting fiscal revenues.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance (TA) report on Myanmar presents outcomes and priority recommendations of mission on external sector statistics (ESS) for the Directorate of Investment and Company Administration (DICA). Intensive hands-on training provided to the DICA through peripatetic TA missions have effectively contributed to building up capacity for DICA compilers, which have gradually materialized and translated into successful foreign direct investment surveys (FDIS) conducted last year. Data coverage has significantly improved through inclusion of FDI in oil and gas sector, which is one of the largest FDI recipients for Myanmar. In order to further enhance the coverage of Myanmar’s FDI statistics, the mission advised the DICA to extend the coverage of FDIS to incorporate new companies and FDI in power generation sector. The mission also assisted DICA officials in updating the annual FDIS survey forms, making alterations to the previous year’s survey forms to capture additional information as requested by DICA management.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

Global growth for 2018–19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, but its pace is less vigorous than projected in April and it has become less balanced. Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past six months and the potential for upside surprises has receded. Global growth is projected at 3.7 percent for 2018–19—0.2 percentage point lower for both years than forecast in April. The downward revision reflects surprises that suppressed activity in early 2018 in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade measures implemented or approved between April and mid-September, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills. The balance of risks to the global growth forecast has shifted to the downside in a context of elevated policy uncertainty. Several of the downside risks highlighted in the April 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO)—such as rising trade barriers and a reversal of capital flows to emerging market economies with weaker fundamentals and higher political risk—have become more pronounced or have partially materialized. Meanwhile, the potential for upside surprises has receded, given the tightening of financial conditions in some parts of the world, higher trade costs, slow implementation of reforms recommended in the past, and waning growth momentum.

Mr. Hamid R Tabarraei
,
Hamed Ghiaie
, and
Asghar Shahmoradi
The structural model in this paper proposes a micro-founded framework that incorporates an active banking sector with an oil-producing sector. The primary goal of adding a banking sector is to examine the role of an interbank market on shocks, introduce a national development fund and study its link to the banking sector and the government. The government and the national development fund directly play key roles in the propagation of the oil shock. In contrast, the banking sector and the labor market, through perfect substitution between the oil and non-oil sectors, have major indirect impacts in spreading shocks.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights Mongolia’s promising longer-term prospects given its abundant natural resources. In recent years, however, the economy has faced substantial challenges, as external shocks and expansionary fiscal and monetary policies have compounded structural weaknesses. Mongolia remains heavily exposed to external shocks, given its export profile, and a key challenge will be to avoid the boom-bust cycles of the past. The discussions with authorities have focused on improving the fiscal framework and strengthening policy discipline, complemented by structural reforms to boost diversification and competitiveness and by efforts to strengthen and better target the social safety net.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Finance and Development, March 2017
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Finances & Développement, mars 2017
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Finance and Development, March 2017