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Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
West African Economic and Monetary Union: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on securing fiscal discipline and credibility in West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). Fiscal consolidation and the reintroduction of the WAEMU fiscal framework Pact—is crucial for maintaining debt sustainability, external viability, and financial stability, while promoting access to lower cost financing and rebuilding fiscal buffers. Members’ adjustment plans should emphasize domestic revenue mobilization, while controlling expenditure, notably the wage bill. In order to enhance fiscal credibility, and maximize prospects for debt sustainability, financial stability and external viability, it is essential and urgent to reintroduce regional fiscal rules at the original ceilings—3 percent gross domestic product (GDP) for deficit and 70 percent GDP for debt. It is also essential to implement a consistent definition of fiscal indicators across the region, avoiding carve-outs for particular spending items. In order to secure fiscal discipline and credibility, it is critical to establish effective mechanisms for assessment, accountability, and enforcement, including by defining a credible debt correction mechanism and exogenous escape clauses, as well as building an effective communication strategy.
Keywords:
deficit ceiling; climate adaption; WAEMU level; WAEMU population; WAEMU lag; Gender inequality; Climate change; Agricultural commodities; Women; Securities; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; West Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Zambia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on boosting sustainable growth in Zambia. Zambia’s economy is highly dependent on mining and agriculture, but despite its abundant resources, growth has been insufficient to lift its young and growing population from poverty. The new government, which came into power in 2021, adopted a new approach to growth, focusing first on restoring macroeconomic stability as the precondition to sustainable growth. Rule of law and fighting corruption have also been highlighted as key to improving the business environment. Restoring macroeconomic stability and credibility, improving the business climate and governance is the best way to attract new investment. Prompt and clear resolution of the debt restructuring removes the largest obstacle to economic recovery. It would lower uncertainty for foreign and domestic investors and boost the impact of the government’s program to restore macroeconomic stability and fiscal sustainability. Reducing corruption, streamlining bureaucratic procedures, and easing the business environment would attract investment. The focus on education and health is warranted. A simulation of the impact of improved education and health indicators because of government’s investment in health and education show a significant increase in long-term growth rates.
Keywords:
G. agriculture policy; agriculture sector; agriculture sector contribution; Growth dividend; growth potential; Agricultural sector; Systemic risk; Financial sector stability; Commercial banks; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Zimbabwe: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Zimbabwe
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation focuses on Zimbabwe’s near- and medium-term challenges and policy priorities and was prepared before COVID-19 became a global pandemic that has resulted in unprecedented strains in global trade, commodity, and financial markets. It, therefore, does not reflect the implications of these developments and related policy priorities. The outbreak has greatly amplified uncertainty and downside risks around the outlook. The IMF staff is closely monitoring the situation and will continue to work on assessing its impact and the related policy response in Zimbabwe and globally. With another poor harvest expected, growth in 2020 is projected at near zero, following a sharp contraction in 2019, with food shortages continuing. With no progress on clearing longstanding external arrears, the authorities face a difficult balance of pursuing tight monetary, to reduce very high inflation, and fiscal policies to address the macroeconomic imbalances and build confidence in the currency, while averting a crisis. Pressures are mounting to increase spending on wages and for social protection to mitigate the impact of the weather shocks and high inflation. While the 2020 budget includes a significant increase in social spending, it is likely insufficient to meet the pressing needs.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Zimbabwe; government; debt; Zimbabwean authorities; currency; Zimbabwe dollar; Zimbabwean government; review government's shareholding; climate shock; Monetary base; Currencies; Agricultural sector; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ghana: Selected Issues Paper
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses growth strategy for Ghana. Ghana has achieved impressive development gains over the last decades, with rising incomes, lower poverty, and better health, education, and gender outcomes. However, growth has recently become less inclusive, with high inequality and slower poverty reduction. In order to address these challenges, the authorities are pursuing a “Ghana beyond Aid” development strategy centered around agricultural modernization and export-led industrialization. Accelerating productivity growth calls for fostering competition, improving the business environment, strengthening human capital, taking advantage of growing regional markets and industrial policies that prioritize sectors that can export and innovate and where Ghana could achieve economies of scale. Consistent and predictable government policies can help increase long-term investment and improve public spending effectiveness. A key lesson from growth accelerations in other countries is that it is crucial to achieve economies of scale. In most cases, rapid economic growth required achieving export success in specific sectors.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Ghana; asset; bank; industry; liability; per capita income; public sector; bank intermediation cost; structural change; gas assets; banking system; extractive industry; processing industries in Ghana; value chain; exposure to the commodity cycle; government balance sheet; bank profitability; Financial statements; Public sector; Commercial banks; Business enterprises; Nonperforming loans; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Guyana: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guyana
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights the expansion of Guyana’s real economic activity by 3.3 percent in 2016. Subdued agricultural commodity prices, bad weather, and delays in public investment weighed down activity, while large increases in gold output helped support growth. Consumer prices increased by 1.5 percent in the 12 months ending in December 2016 as weather-related shocks to food prices reversed the deflationary trend. The macroeconomic outlook is positive for 2017 and the medium term. Growth is projected at 3.5 percent in 2017, supported by an increase in public investment, continued expansion in the extractive sector, and a recovery in rice production.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; deficit; authority; debt; Guyanese authorities; IT system; GDP ratio; U.S. dollar; authorities' action; Public sector; Agricultural commodities; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Liberia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses initiatives to promote export diversification and growth in Liberia. Liberia’s exports have been very concentrated in the past, but some progress in export diversification has been made in recent years, mostly in the enclave sectors. The government has launched the Liberia Agricultural Transformation Agenda (LATA) to support diversification and transformation. LATA strives to build up the agricultural sector as well as adopt a supportive industrial policy. Improving business climate and external competitiveness could play an important role in increasing export diversification in Liberia. Efficiency could also be increased through better access to markets and technology, cheaper imported inputs, as well as more competition with imports.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; commercial bank; Liberia; export; export diversification; diversification; bank FIs; loan account; commercial bank branch; diversifying export; Commercial banks; Financial inclusion; Mobile banking; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belize: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper discusses three important sectors of Belize economy: financial, sugar market, and energy. Belize’s banking system has continued to strengthen since the 2014 Article IV Consultation in June 2014. Despite recent improvements, some banks’ balance sheets are still weak and exposed to adverse macroeconomic developments. The sugar sector makes a very important contribution to Belize’s economy. The sector is estimated to account for about 4-5 percent of GDP, 9-10 percent of total exports, 8 percent of employment, and 5-6 percent of foreign exchange earnings. But the reform of EU sugar regime, scheduled to take full effect in 2017, will most likely cause a significant drop in the EU sugar price.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Belize; rate; Belize energy sector; biomass; sugar price; energy policy framework; electric power grid; Co-Generation Energy Limited; sugar sector; EU reform; Belize's energy efficiency; Agricultural commodities; Commercial banks; Credit bureaus; Loans; Nonperforming loans; Caribbean; Global; Central America; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
India: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper explores key issues affecting the Indian economy and implications for fiscal, monetary, financial sector, and other structural policies. This paper evaluates the build-up of corporate and banking sector vulnerabilities in India, linked to the past macroeconomic slowdown and supply-side bottlenecks, particularly in the infrastructure sector; the nature, scope, and the effectiveness of macroprudential policies in India; the potential costs and benefits of gold monetization schemes in India; two recent episodes of financial market volatility—the taper tantrum of the summer of 2013 and the China spillover episode of the summer of 2015; effectiveness of India’s capital controls using an arbitrage based approach; the relationship between Indian; and international market prices of cereals.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; China spillover episode; China; asset; labor market; introduced gold monetization scheme; labor market rigidity; bank asset quality; China shock; commodity price outlook; Gold; Capital controls; Capital account; Agricultural commodities; Women; Global; South Asia
Cover Taming Indian Inflation
Taming Indian Inflation
Mr. Paul Cashin
and
Rahul Anand

Abstract

High and persistent inflation has presented serious macroeconomic challenges in India in recent years, increasing the country’s domestic and external vulnerabilities. A number of factors underpin India’s high inflation. This book analyzes various facets of Indian inflation—the causes, consequences, and policies being implemented to manage it. Several chapters are devoted to analyzing and managing food inflation, given its significance in driving overall inflation dynamics in India.

Keywords:
BOOK; food inflation; lending rate; nonfood inflation; inflation expectation; deposit rate; Inflation; Food prices; Agricultural commodities; Consumer price indexes; Income inequality; Global; South Asia; Asia and Pacific
Cover Perspectives économiques régionales, avril 2014 : Afrique subsaharienne
Perspectives économiques régionales, avril 2014 : Afrique subsaharienne
Promouvoir une croissance solidaire
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Le FMI publie deux fois par an des Perspectives économiques régionales pour cinq régions : Asie et Pacifique ; Europe ; Moyen-Orient et Asie centrale ; Afrique subsaharienne ; et hémisphère occidental. Chaque rapport aborde l'évolution économique récente et les perspectives de la région concernée, ainsi que pour certains pays. Les rapports comportent des données statistiques clés sur les pays de la région. Chaque rapport traite des politiques qui ont eu une incidence sur les résultats économiques régionaux et précise les enjeux auxquels les décideurs sont confrontés. Les perspectives à court terme, les principaux risques et les difficultés de politique économique afférentes sont analysés tout au long des rapports, qui examinent également l'actualité (par exemple, comment mettre fin progressivement à l'intervention publique tout en préservant une reprise économique mondiale qui reste fragile). Ces rapports précieux sont l'aboutissement d'études interdépartementales exhaustives, fondées pour l'essentiel sur les renseignements recueillis par les services du FMI dans le cadre de leurs consultations avec les pays membres.

Keywords:
REO; exchange rate; fragile state; monetary policy