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Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 1,240 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
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Cover Selected Issues Papers
Financial Conditions and Their Growth Implications for Qatar
Dorothy Nampewo
This paper develops a Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Qatar and uses the Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework to examine the impact of financial conditions on Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon growth. The analysis shows that the FCI is an important leading indicator of Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon growth, highlighting its predictive potential for future economic performance. The GaR framework suggests that overall, the current downside risks to Qatar’s baseline non-hydrocarbon growth projections are relatively mild.
Keywords:
Financial conditions; non-hydrocarbon growth; Qatar; GaR framework; growth projection; Qatar's baseline; copyright page; financial conditions indicator; Financial conditions index; Oil prices; Central bank policy rate; Deposit rates; Post-clearance customs audit; Global
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Seychelles: Technical Assistance Report-Macroprudential Stress Testing and Climate Risk Analysis
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The Technical Assistance (TA) mission, conducted in Victoria, Seychelles, from May 2 to 17, 2023, assisted authorities with macroprudential stress testing and climate risk analysis. The stress testing focused on strengthening the solvency and liquidity frameworks: (i) for solvency, considering credit and foreign exchange risks to design robust scenarios, applying econometric techniques to enhance their risk assessment, and (ii) for the liquidity stress test, enhancing the cash flow analyses utilized by the authorities. For the climate risk analysis framework, the mission reviewed essential components, identified data sources, and provided hands-on training for climate risk assessment. Recommendations include fostering collaboration within CBB and other agencies, better leveraging available data, and improving data collection for stress testing and climate risk analysis. The CBS is expected to advance its framework and address data challenges to implement stress testing and climate risk analysis initiatives effectively.
Keywords:
Climate change; Climate scenario analysis; Environment; Financial sector policy and analysis; Liquidity stress testing; Macroprudential stress testing; Natural disasters; Solvency stress testing' Seychelles.; IMF stress; Department mission; Climate risk analysis diagnosis; mission Climate risk analysis component; IMF's Monetary; Loans; Nonperforming loans; Stress testing; Credit risk; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Policy and Inflation Scares
Christopher J. Erceg
,
Jesper Lindé
, and
Mathias Trabandt
A salient feature of the post-COVID inflation surge is that economic activity has remained resilient despite unfavorable supply-side developments. We develop a macroeconomic model with nonlinear price and wage Phillips curves, endogenous intrinsic indexation and an unobserved components representation of a cost-push shock that is consistent with these observations. In our model, a persistent large adverse supply shock can lead to a persistent inflation surge while output expands if the central bank follows an inflation forecast-based policy rule and thus abstains from hiking policy rates for some time as it (erroneously) expects inflationary pressures to dissipate quickly. A standard linearized formulation of our model cannot account for these observations under identical assumptions. Our nonlinear framework implies that the standard prescription of "looking through" supply shocks is a good policy for small shocks when inflation is near the central bank's target, but that such a policy may be quite risky when economic activity is strong and large shocks drive inflation well above target. Moreover, our model implies that the economic costs of "going the last mile" – i.e. a tight stance aimed at returning inflation quickly to target – can be substantial.
Keywords:
Inflation Dynamics; New Keynesian Model; Inflation Risk; Monetary Policy; Linearized Model; Nonlinear Model; State-Dependent Pricing; cost-push shock; policy rule; COVID inflation surge; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Supply shocks; Central bank policy rate; Labor markets
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Tonga: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Tonga
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Tonga’s economic activity has strengthened, bolstered by consistent remittance flows, continued tourism recovery, and robust construction activities. Inflationary pressures have substantially eased. After peaking at 14.1 percent in September 2022, headline inflation has since been normalizing. The near-term baseline economic outlook remains favorable appropriately supported by expansionary fiscal and monetary policy. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to accelerate to 2.4 percent in FY2025, mostly led by continued strength in domestic demand including large public investment projects and a rebound in agricultural output as the effects of El Nino dissipate. The medium-term growth prospects remain uneven, however. Tonga’s long-term growth is projected at 1.2 percent, reflecting its exposure to increasingly frequent natural disasters, persistent loss of workers to emigration, and limited economies of scale due to geographical barriers. Structural reforms with a focus on bolstering disaster resilience, advancing digital transformation, and strengthening governance frameworks to foster a conducive business environment are essential to meet Tonga’s developments goals.
Keywords:
priority safeguards assessment recommendation; Tonga authorities; reference rate; currency basket; intervention currency; Natural disasters; Debt sustainability analysis; Global; Pacific Islands; Australia and New Zealand
Cover High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
India: Review and Evaluation of the Reserve Bank of India’s Stress Test Model Framework
Marco Gross
and
Wei Sun
This report provides a brief summary of the purpose and findings of a technical assistance (TA) mission that was intended to review and evaluate the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s stress test model suite, which took place in April 2023. The RBI’s model suite was found to be strong and well developed in numerous respects. The most noteworthy recommendations pertain to credit risk, market risk, and macro-financial scenario design. A detailed list of 28 recommendations spanning all areas was left with the RBI. A detailed TA report accompanies this brief summary report.
Keywords:
Bank solvency risk analysis; liquidity risk analysis; contagion analysis; stress test model framework; IMF team; RBI's model suite; TA mission; summary report; Stress testing; Market risk
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Togo: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Togo
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Togo continues to face headwinds, including persistent challenges of food security and terrorist attacks, while broader development needs remain acute. In baseline projections, macroeconomic performance is expected to remain robust. Against a background of a substantial strengthening of fiscal revenue and a beginning of fiscal consolidation in 2023, the macroeconomic outlook is broadly favorable. Growth is expected to remain robust, while fiscal revenue is expected to rise further. There are no substantial domestic or external disequilibria, with low inflation and a well-contained current account deficit. The discussions focused on focused on how the Togolese authorities can best (1) anchor macroeconomic stability by ensuring fiscal consolidation to enhance debt sustainability; (2) conduct structural reforms to lay the basis for sustained growth; and (3) strengthen social inclusion to accelerate progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals and support medium-term growth prospects.
Keywords:
IMF Togo team; authorities' plan; government Roadmap; anti-corruption authority; IMF work program; resident representative; Debt sustainability; Debt sustainability analysis; Global; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Beyond the Dikes: Flood Scenarios for Financial Stability Risk Analysis
Caterina Lepore
and
Junghwan Mok
We assess financial stability risks from floods in the Netherlands using a comprehensive set of flood scenarios considering different factors including geographical regions, flood types, climate conditions, return periods, and adaptation. The estimated damage from each flood scenario is used to calibrate the corresponding macro-financial scenario for bank stress tests. Our results show the importance of considering these heterogeneous factors when conducting physical climate risk stress tests, as the impact of floods on bank capital varies significantly by scenario. We find that climate change amplifies the adverse impact on banks’ capital, but stronger flood defenses in the Netherlands can help mitigate some impacts. Further, we find a non-linear relationship between flood damages and banks’ capital depletion, highlighting the importance of considering extreme scenarios.
Keywords:
Physical risk; flood scenario; banking stress test; climate risk analysis; climate risk stress tests; bank capital; Natural disasters; Climate change; Commercial banks; Housing prices; Stress testing; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Central Banks and Climate Change: Key Legal Issues
Mario Tamez
,
Hans Weenink
, and
Akihiro Yoshinaga
Well-designed legal frameworks and institutional arrangments support the legitimacy of central banks’ autonomous decision-making when grounded on sound legal basis and can prevent over-stepping in the remit of other authorities. This paper explores the key legal intersections of climate change and central banks. Climate change could impact price and finanical stability, which are at the core of a central bank’s mandate. While central banks’ legal frameworks can support climate change efforts they also determine the boundaries of the measures they can adopt. Central banks need to assess their mandate and authority under their current legal frameworks when considering measures to contribute to the global response to climate change, while taking actions to fulfill their legal mandates.
Keywords:
Climate Change; Central Bank; Legal Framework; central bank development programs; autonomous decision-making; IMF working paper No. 24/192; central bank's mandate; core objective; Financial sector stability; Climate policy; Central bank mandate; Central bank legislation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jamaica: Third Reviews Under the Arrangement Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line and the Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper focuses on Jamaica’s Third Reviews Under the Arrangement Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) and the Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). Jamaica’s response to recent shocks has strengthened the credibility of policy frameworks, supporting an economic environment characterized by sustained growth, declining debt, low inflation, and a strengthened external position. Jamaica has continued to implement an ambitious reform agenda that strengthened the fiscal and financial policy frameworks and the climate policy agenda to make the economy more resilient to climate change. Going forward, gross domestic product growth is expected to converge to potential and inflation to return to the mid-point of the target band. The PLL has supported efforts to strengthen the institutional framework for consolidated supervision of financial conglomerates, enhance the framework for the resolution of financial institutions, bring the anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism framework to international best practice, and improve data adequacy. The RSF has supported Jamaica’s ambitious agenda to accelerate the transition to renewables, increase resilience to climate change, enhance the climate focus in fiscal policy frameworks, strengthen the management of climate risks by financial institutions, and catalyze climate financing.
Keywords:
RSF reform; PLL qualification criteria; E. WB engagement; reform measure; SUSTAINABILITY facility; Climate change; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
ليبيا: مشاورات المادة الر ابعة لعام 2024 - البيان الصحفي، وتقرير الخبراء، وبيان المدير التنفيذي الممثل لل
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
لا تزال ليبيا دولة هشة عالقة في حالة من عدم اليقين السياسي. حلقات أصبح الصراع النشط أقل تواترا ، لكن البلاد لا تزال منقسمة بحكم الأمر الواقع بين الغرب والشرق ومجزأة بين الميليشيات المختلفة مع أهداف متنافسة. معوقات الاقتصاد السياسي وعدم كفاية القدرات إعاقة قدرة السلطات على تنفيذ المشورة التي يقدمها الصندوق بشأن السياسات.
Keywords:
ليبيا : مشاورات المادة الر ابعة لعام 2024 - البيان الصحفي، وتقرير الخبراء، وبيان المدير التنفيذي الممثل لليبيا