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Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

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Cover Policy Papers
Initial Considerations For The Review Of Charges And The Surcharge Policy
International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept.
On October 11, 2024, the IMF’s Executive Board concluded the Review of Charges and the Surcharge Policy. The review is part of a broader ongoing effort to ensure that the IMF’s lending policies remain fit for purpose to meet the evolving needs of the membership. Charges and surcharges are important elements of the IMF’s cooperative lending and risk-management framework, where all members contribute and all can benefit from support when needed. Together, they cover lending intermediation expenses, help accumulate reserves to protect against financial risks, and provide incentives for prudent and temporary borrowing. This provides a strong financial foundation that allows the IMF to extend vital balance of payments support on affordable terms to member countries when they need it most.



Against the backdrop of a challenging economic environment and high global interest rates, the Executive Board reached consensus on a comprehensive package of reforms that substantially reduces the cost of borrowing for members while safeguarding the IMF's financial capacity to support countries in need. The approved measures will lower IMF borrowing costs by about US$1.2 billion annually or reduce payments on the margin of the rate of charge as well as surcharges on average by 36 percent. The number of countries subject to surcharges in fiscal year 2026 is expected to fall from 20 to 13.



Key reforms include a reduction in the margin for the rate of charge, an increase in the threshold for level-based surcharges, a reduction in rate for time-based surcharges, an alignment of thresholds for commitment fees with annual and cumulative access limits for GRA lending facilities, and institution of regular reviews of surcharges.



The series of three papers informed the Executive Board’s first and second informal engagements (July and September 2024) and the formal meeting (October 2024) on this review.
Keywords:
General Resources Account; Charges; Margin for the basic rate of charge; Surcharges; Commitment Fees; Precautionary Balances; Income; multilayered framework; fund arrangement; surcharge rate; intermediation cost; fund's liquidity; borrowing cost; Credit; SDR interest rate; Balance of payments need; Credit risk; Global
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Sri Lanka: Technical Assistance Report-Central Bank Risk Management
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Since 2015, the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) has enhanced its risk management through a comprehensive framework and is aiming for an Enterprise Risk Management system. Initiatives like the establishment of the Banking Risk Oversight Committee (BROC) and the Non-Financial Risk Management Committee (NFRMC) have been key in fostering higher-level risk discussions. To further integrate risk management into its culture and operations, the CBSL is focusing on strengthening leadership's engagement in risk management, adopting a risk appetite statement, ensuring targeted training, empowering the risk management function, implementing the 3 Lines Model for clear role delineation, and defining risk tolerance levels with Key Risk Indicators (KRIs). The high-level objectives of the IMF’s engagement with the CBSL include embedding robust risk management practices deeply within the organization, aligning the CBSL’s strategic goals with its risk management efforts, and enhancing decision-making processes to improve efficiency and effectiveness, all in line with the CBSL's legal mandate.
Keywords:
MCM Department; IMF HQ; IMF executive director; deputy governor; CBSL department; Operational risk; Cyber risk; Maghreb
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Optimal Fiscal Path Considerations: Portugal
Mr. Ippei Shibata
and
Mr. Volodymyr Tulin
Despite achieving a rapid reduction in the public debt-to-GDP ratio in recent years, Portugal's debt ratio remains relatively high at 113.9 percent of GDP in end-2022. This paper employs an analytical model to determine the appropriate trajectory for structural consolidation to sustain ambitious debt reduction over the medium term, taking into account the uncertainties in the economic landscape. The model points to a need for continued fiscal tightening between 2024 and 2028. Optimal consolidation would be higher under higher longterm interest rates, lower medium-term growth prospects, or increased market sensitivity to debt.
Keywords:
Fiscal stance; cycle stabilization; government deficit; government debt; Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund; Portugal's debt ratio; model point; interest rate sensitivity; I. model detail; Real interest rates; Fiscal consolidation; Government debt management
Cover IMF Working Papers
European Housing Markets at a Turning Point – Risks, Household and Bank Vulnerabilities, and Policy Options
Ms. Laura Valderrama
,
Patrik Gorse
,
Ms. Marina Marinkov
, and
Petia Topalova
European housing markets are at a turning point as the cost-of-living crisis has eroded real incomes and the surge in interest rates has made borrowers more vulnerable to financial distress. This paper aims to (i) shed light on the risks in European housing markets, (ii) quantify household vulnerabilties, (iii) assess banking sector implications and (iv) examine policies’ effectiveness using simulations based on microdata from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) and EU statistics on income and living conditions (EU-SILC). Under the baseline IMF macroeconomic forecast, the share of households that could struggle to meet basic expenses could rise by 10 pps reaching a third of all households by end 2023. Under an adverse scenario, 45 percent of households could be financially stretched, representing over 40 percent of mortgage debt and 45 percent of consumer debt. The impact on the banking sector seems contained under the baseline forecast, though there are pockets of vulnerability. A 20 percent house price correction could deplete CET1 capital by 100-300 basis points. Fiscal measures, such as subsidies to the bottom income tercile, could save 7 percent of households from financial distress at an estimated cost of 0.8 percent of GDP.
Keywords:
Housing markets; overvaluation; affordability; household vulnerability; tenure status; income distribution; consumption; financial stability; targeted support; macroprudential policy.; EU banking sector; banking sector implication; housing market correction; house price correction; bank capital; Mortgages; Housing prices; Income; Housing; Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Calibrating Macroprudential Policies in Europe Amid Rising Housing Market Vulnerability
Ms. Laura Valderrama
Housing market developments are in the spotlight in Europe. Over-stretched valuations amid tightening financial conditions and a cost-of-living crisis have increased risks of a sustained downturn and exposed challenging trade-offs for macroprudential policy between ensuring financial system resilience and smoothing the macro-financial cycle. Against this backdrop, this paper provides detailed considerations regarding how to (re)set macroprudential policy tools in response to housing-related systemic risk in Europe, providing design solutions to avoid unintended consequences during a tightening phase, and navigating the trade-offs between managing the build-up of vulnerabilities and the macro-financial cycle in a downturn. It also proposes a novel framework to measure the effectiveness of tools and avoid overlaps by quantifying the risks addressed by different macroprudential instruments. Finally, it introduces a taxonomy allowing to assess a country’s macroprudential stance and whether adjustments to current policy settings are warranted—such as the relaxation of capital-based tools and possibly some borrower-based measures in the event of a more severe downturn.
Keywords:
Housing markets; household vulnerability; income distribution; economic cycle; financial stability; macroprudential policy.; Macroprudential policy; housing market vulnerability; Policy tool; calibrating Macroprudential policies in Europe amide; Macroprudential Policy stance framework; Countercyclical capital buffers; Mortgages; Housing prices; Credit; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Portugal: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Portugal
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2022 Article IV Consultation presents that after a deeper pandemic-induced recession than the rest of the euro area in 2020, the Portuguese economy gained ground in 2021, and growth strengthened further in 2022:Q1. Policies need to balance short-term urgencies with a smooth transition to private-led growth, rebuilding fiscal space and advancing reforms for stronger growth and a more resilient economy. The 2022 budget remains suitably accommodative, excluding the appropriate unwinding of coronavirus disease 2019 measures. Broad-based measures in response to the energy price shock must be kept temporary and preferably replaced with more targeted measures to mitigate the impact on vulnerable households. Fiscal policy needs to be flexible for further support under severe adverse scenarios or more savings under fiscal over performance. A timely implementation of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan through efficient and transparent planning and budgeting, organization and oversight of the investments and reforms, coupled with reforms to reduce labor market duality and strengthen insolvency regimes would limit scarring, raise living standards, and build a more dynamic economy.
Keywords:
portfolio investment data collection system; money market rate; insolvency regime; priority Portugal; asset quality; RRP fund; strengthening capital buffer; Energy prices; Inflation; Fiscal stance; Global
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
Business Continuity Planning for Government Cash and Debt Management
Mr. Emre Balibek
,
Ian Storkey
, and
Hakan Yavuz
Cash and debt management operations are part of the “transactional” functions of public financial management. It is critical that these functions are resilient to external disruptions, ranging from information and communication technology (ICT) system outages to natural disasters. This technical manual aims to provide guidance on the steps that government cash and debt management units can follow to develop and implement a practical business continuity plan that economizes the resources used. It also discusses the evolving nature of business disruption risks faced by cash and debt management over the last decade, including the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as risk mitigation solutions that have emerged.
Keywords:
Business continuity planning; business impact analysis; operational risk management; business disruption risks; cash and debt management; COVID-19; pandemic; government cash management; debt management function; debt management performance assessment; debt management unit; business disruption risk; part of government cash and debt management; Operational risk; Government debt management; Government cash management; Debt management; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
COVID-19: How Will European Banks Fare?
Mr. Shekhar Aiyar
,
Mai Chi Dao
,
Mr. Andreas A. Jobst
,
Ms. Aiko Mineshima
,
Ms. Srobona Mitra
, and
Mahmood Pradhan
This paper evaluates the impact of the crisis on European banks’ capital under a range of macroeconomic scenarios, using granular data on the size and riskiness of sectoral exposures. The analysis incorporates the important role of pandemic-related policy support, including not only regulatory relief for banks, but also policies to support businesses and households, which act to shield the financial sector from the real economic shock.
Keywords:
Bank capital; stress test; COVID-19; bank profitability; corporate risk; EBA transparency Exercise; hurdle rate; return on assets; EBA sample; IMF staff calculation; ECB analysis; ECB-Banking Supervision; operating income; loan default; return on equity; debt service moratoria; working capital; Capital adequacy requirements; External balance assessment (EBA); Countercyclical capital buffers; Loans; Nonperforming loans; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Do Enhanced Collective Action Clauses Affect Sovereign Borrowing Costs?
Kay Chung
and
Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou
This paper analyzes the effects of including collective action clauses (CACs) and enhanced CACs in international (nondomestic law-governed) sovereign bonds on sovereigns’ borrowing costs, using secondary-market bond yield spreads. Our findings indicate that inclusion of enhanced CACs, introduced in August 2014, is associated with lower borrowing costs for both noninvestment-grade and investment-grade issuers. These results suggest that market participants do not associate the use of CACs and enhanced CACs with borrowers’ moral hazard, but instead consider their implied benefits of an orderly and efficient debt resolution process in case of restructuring.
Keywords:
WP; collective action clause; yield to maturity; enhanced CACs; sovereign bond
Cover IMF Working Papers
It is Only Natural: Europe’s Low Interest Rates
Mr. Marco Arena
,
Gabriel Di Bella
,
Mr. Alfredo Cuevas
,
Mr. Borja Gracia
,
Vina Nguyen
, and
Alex Pienkowski
Estimates of the natural interest rate are often useful in the analysis of monetary and other macroeconomic policies. The topic gathered much attention following the great financial crisis and the Euro Area debt crisis due to the uncertainty regarding the timing of monetary policy normalization and the future path of interest rates. Using a sample of European countries (including several members of the Euro Area), this paper provides estimates of country-specific natural interest rates and some of their drivers between 2000 and 2019. In line with the literature, our findings suggest that natural interest rates declined during this period, and despite a rebound in the last few years of it, they have not recovered to their pre-crisis levels. The paper also discusses the implications of the decline in natural interest rates for monetary conditions and debt sustainability.
Keywords:
WP; monetary policy; math display; fiscal policy; policy rate; country risk; risk premium; central bank; shadow rate; reserve currency; Real interest rates; Output gap; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Central bank policy rate; Europe; Global; Natural interest rate; Neutral interest rate; debt sustainability; Bayesian estimation; T-bill rate; market data; monetary policy stance