Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Countries

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 146 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Working Papers
Escaping the Financial Dollarization Trap: The Role of Foreign Exchange Intervention
Paul Castillo
,
Ruy Lama
, and
Juan Pablo Medina
Financial dollarization is considered a source of macroeconomic instability in many emerging economies. Dollarization constrains the ability of central banks to stimulate output during economic downturns. In contrast to the conventional monetary transmission mechanism, a monetary policy loosening in a dollarized economy leads to a currency depreciation, adverse balance sheet effects, and a contraction in investment and output growth. In this paper we evaluate the role of foreign exchange reserves in facilitating macroeconomic stabilization in a financially dollarized economy. We first show empirically that foreign exchange intervention in response to capital outflows can largely reduce the volatility of output and the real exchange rate in dollarized economies. We then develop a small open economy model with foreign currency debt and balance sheets effects. Our quantitative model shows that an active foreign exchange intervention policy is sufficient for offsetting the output volatility associated with financial dollarization. These results can explain the prevalence of low macroeconomic volatility in some dollarized economies (Christiano et al., 2021) and they highlight the role of foreign exchange reserves in reducing the welfare costs of dollarization.
Keywords:
Foreign Exchange Intervention; Global Financial Cycle; Financial Dollarization; Balance Sheet Effects; Emerging Economies.; dollarization trap; dollarized economy; FX intervention; liability dollarization; intervention policy; Dollarization; Capital outflows; Capital flows; International reserves; Global
Cover Shocks and Capital Flows
Shocks and Capital Flows
Policy Responses in a Volatile World

Abstract

The high exposure of open economies to shocks makes them particularly vulnerable to volatile capital flows and advanced economy monetary policy spillovers. How should and do domestic policymakers respond? The traditional answer has been to use flexible exchange rates as a shock absorber. But flexible exchange rates may not offer full insulation when financial markets are imperfect. This book brings together recent empirical studies at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the effectiveness of different tools in responding to such shocks. The 18 chapters in this volume provide a rich background to the recently launched Integrated Policy Framework by the IMF. They comprise assessments of countries’ actual use of different tools, as well as in-depth evaluations of their effectiveness and side effects, covering macroprudential policies, monetary policy, foreign-exchange intervention, and capital flow management policies. Many of the studies involve new data and methods to tackle the inherently difficult problems in identifying and comparing the effects of policies under different circumstances. As a result, the volume offers the reader a comprehensive, in-depth coverage of the policy-oriented empirical research that has informed the development of a new way of thinking about open-economy macroeconomics at the IMF.

Keywords:
Capital flows; monetary policy; exchange rate policy; foreign exchange intervention; macroprudential policy; capital controls; FX debt; account restrictiveness; exchange rate intervention; IT regime; Exchange rates; Macroprudential policy instruments; Global; Asia and Pacific; Caribbean; Central America; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Peru: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Peru
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that against the background of a strong economic performance over the last quarter of a century, Peru has been hit by multiple shocks in the last several years. Adequate policies and very strong policy frameworks have made the economy resilient. Growth is expected to slow to 2.4 percent in 2023 and converge to its potential of 3 percent over the medium term. Inflation is expected to decline gradually into the target range by end-2023-early 2024. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, with key risks including escalation of Russia’s war in Ukraine, an abrupt global slowdown and commodity price volatility, monetary policy miscalibration by major central banks with a possible de-anchoring of inflation expectations and systemic financial instability, an intensification of political uncertainties at home, social unrest over political developments, and natural disasters. Financial sector policies should continue to maintain a tightening bias to cement financial stability in a deteriorating financial environment. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development accession process should be used to define a well-articulated structural reform agenda to deal with the scarring effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and support green and inclusive growth.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; CPI National; inflation in Peru; BCRP estimation; Peruvian authorities; macroeconomic performance; Policy advice; Inflation; Public sector; Currencies; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Caught in the Crosswinds: The Experiences of Selected Economies Responding to External Volatility with Multiple Policy Levers
Ms. Ghada Fayad
A case study approach is used to assess the multi-pronged policy response of seven small financially open economies with flexible exchange rate regimes to external shocks following the global financial crisis. FX intervention was frequently used— including during outflow episodes to prevent disorderly depreciation and preserve financial stability. Monetary policy often considered both financial and external stability. Capital flow management measures were sometimes calibrated symmetrically over the cycle while macroprudential measures were mostly deployed during inflow episodes. Assessment of the macroeconomic conditions paints an inconclusive picture on the benefits or costs of such policies, suggesting the need for further analysis.
Keywords:
emerging markets; monetary and exchange rate policies; inflation targeting; foreign exchange intervention; capital flows; macroprudential measures.; WP; monetary policy decision; exchange rate volatility; inflation targeting regime; monetary policy independence; FX turnover BIS data; macroprudential measures; inflation expectation; depreciation pressure; Inflation; Exchange rates; Financial sector stability; Depreciation; Central bank policy rate; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Intervention Under Inflation Targeting--When Could It Make Sense?
Mr. David J Hofman
,
Mr. Marcos d Chamon
,
Mr. Pragyan Deb
,
Mr. Thomas Harjes
,
Umang Rawat
, and
Itaru Yamamoto
We investigate the motives inflation-targeting central banks in emerging markets may have for intervening in foreign exchange markets and evaluate the case for such interventions based on the existing literature. Our findings suggest that the rationale for interventions depends on initial conditions and country-specific circumstances. The case is strongest in the presence of large currency mismatches or underdeveloped markets. While interventions can have benefits in the short-term, sustained over time they could entrench unfavorable initial conditions, though more work is needed to establish this empirically. A first effort to measure the cost of interventions to the credibility of policy frameworks suggests that the negative impact may be smaller than often assumed—at least for the set of more sophisticated inflation-targeting emerging-market central banks considered here.
Keywords:
WP; Bank FXI; central bank intervention; emerging market; EME inflation targeters; inflation-targeting Asian EMEs; IT literature; inflation expectation; managed exchange rate regime; FX intervention; intervention rule; FX market intervention; market condition; inflation credibility concern; exchange rate volatility; intervention strategy; Exchange rates; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Exchange rate flexibility; Global; emerging markets; monetary and exchange rate policies; foreign exchange intervention; capital flows; Currency markets
Cover IMF Working Papers
One Shock, Many Policy Responses
Rui Mano
and
Ms. Silvia Sgherri
Policymakers have relied on a wide range of policy tools to cope with capital flow shocks. And yet, the effects and interaction of these policies remain under debate, as does the motivation for using them. In this paper, quantile local projections are used to estimate the entire distribution of future policy responses to portfolio flow shocks for 20 emerging markets and understand the variety of policy choices across the sample. To assuage endogeneity concerns, estimates rely on the fact that global capital flows are exogenous from the viewpoint of any one of these countries. The paper finds that: (i) policy responses to capital flow shocks are heterogeneous across countries, fat-tailed—“extreme” responses tend to be more elastic than “typical” responses—and asymmetric—“extreme” responses tend to be more elastic with respect to outflows than to inflows; (ii) country characteristics are linked to policy choices—with cross-country differences in forex intervention relating to the size of balance sheet vulnerabilities and the depth of the forex market; (iii) the use of targeted macroprudential policy and capital flows management measures can help “free the hands” of monetary policy by allowing it to focus more squarely on domestic cyclical developments.
Keywords:
WP; Capital flows; emerging markets; foreign exchange intervention; macroprudential policies; capital flows management; FX intervention; FX sale; exchange rate response; De-Facto exchange rate flexibility; FX purchase; inflation-targeting monetary policy framework; Exchange rates; Exchange rate adjustments; Central bank policy rate; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Peru: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper evaluates features of the Peruvian tax system that may have contributed to weak revenue growth, as well as reforms to strengthen the tax system. Using data on domestic tax collection in conjunction with cross-country data on tax rates, collection and tax expenditures, we attempt to shed light on the factors that distinguish tax revenue mobilization in Peru from other countries in the region. The paper also discusses recent reforms in tax policy and tax administration, and present advice for continued progress in these areas. Elimination of multiple tax regimes for small businesses can provide a boost to revenues from corporate taxes. An IMF technical evaluation of the small business tax regimes finds that a rationalization of the two existing regimes into one with the same marginal rate as the general regime will result in revenue gains of around 0.14 percent of GDP. There is ample room to increase the contribution of excises and property taxes to overall tax revenues. Relative to the regional average, Peru will continue to lag peer economies even if the current reform performs at full potential. This suggests room for further policy reforms to bring excise taxes in line with the levels of comparable economies.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Peru; rate; policy rate gap; dollarization; inflation targeting framework; policy instrument; Policy rate decision; transmission mechanism; monetary policy rate; macro-prudential policies; Central bank policy rate; Reserve requirements; Real exchange rates; Value-added tax; Global; Caribbean; Asia and Pacific; output gap; Policy rate; price boom
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Peru: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement and Statement by the Executive Director for Peru
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation discusses that Peru’s economic performance continues to be strong, however, external and domestic headwinds, including the fallout from Lava Jato corruption investigations, have reduced growth momentum and raised concerns about long-term growth prospects. Policy responses have been appropriate, but further reforms have been delayed by a political stalemate between the executive and legislative powers. After President Vizcarra dissolved Congress in September 2019, new parliamentary elections will be held in January 2020. The current slowdown in activity and heightened uncertainty justify policy stimulus. However, the fiscal stance is procyclical owing to higher-than-expected revenues and low execution of public investment. Against this background, monetary policy easing is particularly appropriate given the absence of inflationary pressures, while accelerated budget execution would mitigate the procyclical fiscal policy stance. In the medium term, additional fiscal space from tax revenues and effective expenditure control is needed to address priorities in infrastructure and social spending while a gradual transition to greater exchange rate flexibility would foster financial market development. In addition to infrastructure investment, key reforms are needed to improve governance and fight corruption, boost competitiveness, and reduce informality.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; agriculture promotion law; October data; October; deficit ceiling
Cover Enhancing Chile’s Fiscal Framework
Enhancing Chile’s Fiscal Framework
Lessons from Domestic and International Experience

Abstract

This booklet summarizes the presentations in the conference titled “Enhancing Chile’s Fiscal Framework: Lessons from Domestic and International Experience,” organized by Chile’s Ministry of Finance and the International Monetary Fund in January of 2019. The conference’s objective was to explore challenges and possible opportunities to improve Chile’s fiscal framework, including the fiscal rule, by looking at the Chilean and international experience. The conference had the valuable participation of current and former senior policymakers from Chile, including former Ministers of Finance ranging across the political spectrum and central bank presidents, which provided an insightful perspective in areas for improvement in the realm of fiscal policy. These views were complemented by representatives from the IMF and the Inter-American Development Bank, academics, and country officials from New Zealand and Peru, which provided lessons from the international experience.

Keywords:
MISC PUBS; Misc.; debt; rule; government; GDP
Cover Brazil
Brazil
Boom, Bust, and the Road to Recovery
Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo
and
Mr. Krishna Srinivasan

Abstract

Brazil is at crossroads, emerging slowly from a historic recession that was preceded by a huge economic boom. Reasons for the historic bust following a boom are manifold. Policy mistakes were an important contributory factor, and included the pursuit of countercyclical policies, introduced to deal with the effects of the global financial crisis, beyond the point where they were helpful. More fundamentally, it reflects longstanding structural weaknesses plaguing the economy, that also help explain Brazil’s uninspiring growth performance over the past four decades.

Keywords:
BOOK; Brazil; government; trade liberalization; wage bill; commodity exporter; monetary policy; political system; Corruption; Income inequality; Productivity; Personal income; Global; South America; Central America; Caribbean; Middle East; inflation expectation; anti-corruption authority ANAC; reform priority; Inflation; North Africa