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Marianne Bechara
,
Wouter Bossu
,
Amira Rasekh
,
Chia Yi Tan
, and
Akihiro Yoshinaga
In designing central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), it is imperative that central banks carefully consider its legal foundations. As with any form of money, CBDCs require a solid basis under public and private law to provide it with the necessary legal certainty and political support that will underpin its wide circulation. This Fintech Note examines the private law aspects of token-based CBDC primarily intended for retail use. It follows a previous IMF working paper that examines the legal foundations of CBDC under central bank law and its treatment under monetary law—the main public law aspects of CBDC.
Dorothy Nampewo
This paper develops a Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Qatar and uses the Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework to examine the impact of financial conditions on Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon growth. The analysis shows that the FCI is an important leading indicator of Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon growth, highlighting its predictive potential for future economic performance. The GaR framework suggests that overall, the current downside risks to Qatar’s baseline non-hydrocarbon growth projections are relatively mild.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper highlights recent trends in the Kosovo labor market and emigration. Like other Western Balkan countries, Kosovo experienced a sharp decline in population over the previous decade, as emigration increased. Using a structural model of the labor market and migration, the paper examines the potential impact of further EU integration. While lower migration costs hurt the economy, productivity convergence brought on by EU integration has an offsetting impact by increasing wages, lowering unemployment, and increase immigration. Policy simulations show that policymakers have a diverse set of tools—including structural reforms, active labor market policies, business support, and labor participation support—to boost potential and support the labor market. A key result from the policy simulations is that, while the policies target various stages of the labor market, they have similar macroeconomic impacts. In this regard, it is important for policymakers to focus on policies with the largest potential impact relative to the cost of implementation. Additionally, policies should be combined with careful monitoring and updating to ensure that they remain effective and efficient.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Abstract

Chapter 1 shows that although near-term financial stability risks have remained contained, mounting vulnerabilities could worsen future downside risks by amplifying shocks, which have become more probable because of the widening disconnect between elevated economic uncertainty and low financial volatility. Chapter 2 presents evidence that high macroeconomic uncertainty can threaten macrofinancial stability by exacerbating downside tail risks to markets, credit supply, and GDP growth. These relationships are stronger when debt vulnerabilities are elevated, or financial market volatility is low (during episodes of a macro-market disconnect). Chapter 3 assesses recent developments in AI and Generative AI and their implications for capital markets. It presents new analytical work and results from a global outreach to market participants and regulators, delineates potential benefits and risks that may arise from the widespread adoption of these new technologies, and makes suggestions for policy responses.

Augusto Azael Pérez Azcárraga
,
Tadatsugu Matsudaira
,
Gilles Montagnat-Rentier
,
Janos Nagy
, and
R. James Clark

Abstract

Las administraciones de aduanas ven surgir nuevos retos a medida que aumenta el volumen del comercio internacional, aparece nueva tecnologĂ­a y cambian los modelo de negocio. Este libro analiza los cambios y desafĂ­os que enfrentan las administraciones de aduanas y propone formas de abordarlos. Describe los problemas que las autoridades deben tener en cuenta a la hora de elaborar su propia hoja de ruta para la modernizaciĂłn de las aduanas.

International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This report provides an overview of the assistance provided by the IMF to the Central Bank of the Seychelles in reviewing and updating its strategic plan, in line with international best practices for central banks.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2024 Article IV Consultation with Singapore highlights that following a slowdown in 2023, growth is projected to recover gradually to 2.1 percent in 2024. After reaching 6.1 percent in 2022, inflation has steadily declined to 2.7 percent in April 2024. The pace of disinflation has nonetheless been gradual, with signs of persistent price pressures including from a tight labor market. With risks to global growth now broadly balanced, downside risks to growth outlook have diminished relative to last year, but Singapore remains vulnerable to a deepening of geo-economic fragmentation. Inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. The broadly neutral fiscal stance relative to 2023 will complement the tight monetary policy stance in achieving price stability, while targeted support to vulnerable households and firms will provide temporary relief from high costs of living and business. Singapore’s financial sector remains resilient with solid capital and liquidity buffers, though vigilance against pockets of vulnerabilities is warranted, including from potential systemic risks arising from the housing market. In this context, the tight macroprudential policy stance remains appropriate.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyses monetary policy issues in the UK. It examines key macro and financial indicators and assesses the effects of the tightening thus far. The paper finds that monetary transmission has largely mirrored previous episodes, with the most notable exception of the mortgage channel, which has been slower due to a higher share of fixed-rate mortgages. Additionally, it reveals an outsized impact of federal announcements on UK financial markets and argues that this will place a premium on Bank of England (BoE) communications in a context where the BoE may diverge. Monetary transmission in the UK during the current cycle has mostly worked as expected and has been similar to the experiences in other advanced economies. The paper identifies identify monetary policy surprises through changes in high-frequency market indicators within a narrow window around monetary policy announcement. The results indicate that Federal Open Market Committee spillovers do have a sizable effect on monetary transmission in the UK.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Macao Special Administrative Region (SAR)’s economy rebounded strongly after the relaxation of coronavirus disease 2019 containment measures in Mainland China. Real gross domestic product increased by 80.5 percent in 2023, recovering much of the decline during the pandemic. A stronger slump in the Mainland’s property sector and higher for longer interest rates in the major economies are the main short-term risks to the outlook. The secular growth slowdown in Mainland China could weigh on Macao SAR’s medium-term growth. Moreover, medium-term growth could be adversely affected by extreme climate events. The authorities should encourage banks to hold higher provisioning to bolster their shock absorbing capacity, enhance the insolvency and debt resolution and restructuring frameworks, and strengthen systemic risk assessment and monitoring. Economy-wide structural reforms focused on incentivizing R&D and innovation, upskilling and reskilling the labor force, and streamlining labor and business regulations would be key for achieving the government’s economic diversification objectives. A comprehensive assessment of investment needs for climate adaptation and its integration in the medium-term fiscal plan would buttress the authorities’ efforts to enhance the economy’s resilience against climate-related disasters.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A technical assistance (TA) mission on external sector statistics (ESS) was conducted to the Central Statistics Office (CSO) of Saint Lucia as part of the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) work program on ESS. The mission focused on addressing data compilation issues on trade in goods—especially on the import and re-export of fuel—and travel credits and assessed the revised 2022 balance of payments that was disseminated in December 2023.