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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
لا تزال ليبيا دولة هشة عالقة في حالة من عدم اليقين السياسي. حلقات أصبح الصراع النشط أقل تواترا ، لكن البلاد لا تزال منقسمة بحكم الأمر الواقع بين الغرب والشرق ومجزأة بين الميليشيات المختلفة مع أهداف متنافسة. معوقات الاقتصاد السياسي وعدم كفاية القدرات إعاقة قدرة السلطات على تنفيذ المشورة التي يقدمها الصندوق بشأن السياسات.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
قضايا مختارة
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper identifies the sources and quantifies the exchange market pressures on the Libyan dinar. The paper highlights that: (1) the cumulative pressure on the exchange rate has been negative; and (2) despite the alternating appreciation and depreciation pressures, foreign exchange reserves have remained relatively stable. The authorities’ toolkit is limited: they strive to maintain the stock of reserves at a high level and to keep the exchange rate peg intact, all without the use of fiscal policy or of conventional monetary policy instruments. Therefore, developing conventional monetary policy tools and making sure that fiscal policy is consistent with the overall macroeconomic objectives would help the authorities achieve their goals without resorting to capital flow measures. While Libya had periods of both depreciation and appreciation pressures, overall, it faced substantial depreciation pressure. In other words, Libya’s policies over the medium term were not in line with the three-pronged macroeconomic objective of maintaining high foreign reserves, a pegged official exchange rate, and a narrow gap between the parallel and the official exchange rates. The findings suggest that additional monetary tools and the use of fiscal policy can help contain the parallel market premium and avoid the use of capital flow measures.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Libya remains a fragile state trapped in political uncertainty, but the episodes of active conflict have become less frequent. The outlook continues to be dominated by the dynamics of hydrocarbon production. Libya needs to manage public expenditure consistent with its macroeconomic constraints, and requires proper budgeting to avoid procyclical spending, and improve coordination between fiscal and monetary policies. Completing the central bank reunification remains key to maintaining financial stability, along with reforms on strengthening monetary policy and updates to the banking supervision framework. The baseline projection is for declining fiscal and external balances over the coming years, in line with a projected decline in global oil prices. The Central Bank of Libya is expected to maintain the current stock of international reserves, and the country will continue to have no public debt as conventionally understood. However, the balance of risks is tilted to the downside, and uncertainty remains high due to the continuing political stalemate and possible geopolitical spillovers.
Nehmat H Hantas
and
Sebastien Clanet
The International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s Middle East Regional Technical Assistance Center (METAC) is currently assisting the Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) in enhancing its risk-based supervision through the development of a Supervisory Review and Evaluation SRP framework inspired from European Central Bank (ECB) methodology. The Technical Assistance (TA) mission is part of a multi-step medium-term project. The TA mission aimed to design, in coordination with CBJ, a progressive multi-step roadmap defining the major milestones for a full implementation of SRP. The mission noted that several dimensions should be taken into consideration when implementing the SRP, most notably bridging the data gap by building a fully-fledged supervisory risk database through a dedicated IT project, assessing whether the current organization of the Banking Supervisory Department should be adjusted, and progressively cover all material sources of risks in the SRP.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper provides an overview of the challenges facing the banking sector in Libya and puts forward reforms to strengthen financial stability and accelerate credit growth. Priority reforms are identified using the 2012 sound principles for effective supervision, issued by the Basel Committee for Banking Supervision (BCBS), while also considering limitations imposed by the country’s fragility and conflict situation. Banks are struggling to develop Islamic finance products. Financial stability mandate and governance architecture should be strengthened. Financial stability mandate and governance are not clearly articulated in the banking law. Comprehensive internal and external reporting systems should be developed to strengthen management facilitate supervision. The paper recommends that the authorities follow a gradual and consultative approach to regulatory reforms and support the development of human capital and systems at the commercial banks and at the Central Bank of Libya.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper provides an overview of the challenges facing the banking sector in Libya and puts forward reforms to strengthen financial stability and accelerate credit growth. Priority reforms are identified using the 2012 sound principles for effective supervision, issued by the Basel Committee for Banking Supervision (BCBS), while also considering limitations imposed by the country’s fragility and conflict situation. Banks are struggling to develop Islamic finance products. Financial stability mandate and governance architecture should be strengthened. Financial stability mandate and governance are not clearly articulated in the banking law. Comprehensive internal and external reporting systems should be developed to strengthen management facilitate supervision. The paper recommends that the authorities follow a gradual and consultative approach to regulatory reforms and support the development of human capital and systems at the commercial banks and at the Central Bank of Libya.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Tunisia’s economic growth almost doubled to 1.9 percent in 2017, as confidence strengthened on the back of improved security and the unity government’s early progress with policy and reform implementation. Investment and exports remained sluggish, however. Growth is expected to reach 2.4 percent in 2018, helped by a good agricultural season and a pickup in manufacturing and tourism. The unemployment rate remains high at 15 percent. Trade data for early 2018 show an improvement in export performance, while import growth is slowing. This favorable trend is expected to continue throughout the remainder of the year, supported by a more favorable real exchange rate.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper presents an overview of the macroeconomic condition of Tunisia. Tunisia has managed to preserve macroeconomic stability and initiate fiscal and banking reforms in a context marked by a prolonged political transition, spillovers from the crisis in Libya, and numerous exogenous shocks, including terror attacks. However, important vulnerabilities remain: economic activity is weak, employment is low, social tensions linger, spending composition has deteriorated, and external imbalances are high. To tackle these issues, Tunisia formulated a five-year (2016–20) economic vision in 2015, which is being developed into a detailed plan. The vision aims at promoting stronger and more inclusive growth in Tunisia.
International Monetary Fund
In March 2009 the Fund established a new Framework Administered Account to administer external financial resources for Selected Fund Activities (the “SFA Instrument”). The financing of activities under the terms of the SFA Instrument is implemented through the establishment and operation of subaccounts within the SFA. This paper requests Executive Board approval to establish the Financial Access Survey Subaccount (“the Subaccount”) under the terms of the SFA Instrument.