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International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
This paper provides an update on the status of the SDR trading market and operations. For more than three decades, SDRs have exclusively been exchanged for freely usable currencies in transactions by agreement, primarily through the Voluntary Trading Arrangements (VTAs). A small fraction of transactions by agreement—sales or acquisitions of SDRs—has been arranged directly between parties. VTAs are bilateral arrangements between the Fund and SDR department participants or prescribed holders, in which the VTA participants agree to buy and sell SDRs within certain limits. The paper covers SDR trading operations during the period September 2023 to August 2024.
Carlos de Resende
,
Alexandra Solovyeva
, and
Moez Souissi
The paper explores the nexus between the financial and business cycles in a semi-structural New Keynesian model with a financial accelerator, an active banking sector, and an endogenous macroprudential policy reaction function. We parametrize the model for Luxembourg through a mix of calibration and Bayesian estimation techniques. The model features dynamic properties that align with theoretical priors and empirical evidence and displays sensible data-matching and forecasting capabilities, especially for credit indicators. We find that the credit gap, which remained positive during COVID-19 amid continued favorable financial conditions and policy support, had been closing by mid-2022. Model-based forecasts using data up to 2022Q2 and conditional on the October 2022 WEO projections for the Euro area suggest that Luxembourg's business and credit cycles would deteriorate until late 2024. Based on these insights about the current and projected positions in the credit cycle, the model can guide policymakers on how to adjust the macroprudential policy stance. Policy simulations suggest that the weights given to measures of credit-to-GDP and asset price gaps in the macroprudential policy rule should be well-calibrated to avoid unwarranted volatility in the policy response.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper presents a technical note on Selected Issues in Banking Supervision for the Luxembourg Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). This review examines specific aspects of the banking supervision regime in Luxembourg focusing on the supervision by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF) of Less Significant Institutions. No material weaknesses were identified in the CSSF’s supervisory processes in the areas of focus of the review—namely, LSI supervision of liquidity, interest rate risk in the banking book, operational risk, and related-party transactions. The financial sector in Luxembourg has continued to grow since the 2017 FSAP and plays key domestic and global roles. Luxembourg, as a founding Member State of the EU, the wider European Economic Area, and the Euro area, has incorporated European directives to regulate financial services. This includes the implementation of International Financial Reporting Standards for prudential reports in compliance with EU rules. Local Generally Accepted Accounting Principles are used for preparing annual statutory accounts, and the CSSF oversees the audit profession, approving statutory auditors and audit firms.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper highlights a technical note on Investment Funds: Regulation and Supervision for the Luxembourg Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF) has a robust supervisory framework with substantive improvements since the last FSAP, but some areas could be further strengthened. Given the structural importance of delegation for Luxembourg domiciled funds, initiating an on-site inspection framework for delegates outside Luxembourg assumes importance. CSSF’s enforcement framework could be substantially improved through enhancements on four key fronts. CSSF could improve the domestic regulatory framework on areas such as winding up, valuation, and approach to indirectly regulated Alternative Investment Funds AIFs. Given Luxembourg’s position as the domicile of EU’s largest IF sector, CSSF should actively continue to promote and contribute to EU level reforms on various topics. With respect to liquidity risks, CSSF should continue to actively contribute to the European Securities and Markets Authority’s (ESMA) guidance on the use of Liquidity Management Tools and to engage closely with ESMA and the EU Commission on the proposed revision of the Eligible Assets Directive.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper focuses on a technical note on Stress Testing and Systemic Risk Analysis for the Luxembourg Financial Sector Assessment Program. The Luxembourg financial system is highly interconnected, diverse and complex. It has displayed a high level of resilience in the past but currently faces a backdrop of heightened economic, financial, and geopolitical uncertainty. The banking, insurance and investment fund sector stress tests were integrated in a number of ways, and included key external and domestic risks. Under the adverse scenario, the banking system would experience a significant decline in the system-wide capital ratio but would still be very well capitalized, thanks to healthy initial positions. The majority of banks would be able to sustain bank runs akin to those experienced in the US and Switzerland in March 2023, but some need attention. Despite resilience taken together, the assessment of banking sector vulnerabilities points to several areas where the authorities could prioritize supervisory attention. The increasing share of alternative investment funds and the higher interlinkages both within the investment fund sector and with the rest of the financial sector call for vigilance.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Luxembourg’ economy contracted in 2023 despite buoyant consumption, mainly due to weak external demand and residential investment. Inflation is subsiding but underlying measures remain high. Credit growth turned negative as demand dropped and real estate prices declined. The newly elected government has approved a mix of temporary and permanent measures to support purchasing power and housing demand. Gradually easing financial conditions, continuing disinflation and expansionary fiscal policy is expected to help the economy rebound and the financial cycle bottom out. Inflation should decline in 2024, before temporarily increasing in 2025 once administrative price measures expire. The recovery is fragile amid heightened geopolitical tensions. Risks are tilted to the downside, stemming mainly from external demand/supply shocks and a disorderly correction of asset prices, including domestic real estate valuations. Sustained economic growth hinges on raising productivity, which has been stagnant since the Global Financial Crisis. Increasing investment in intangible assets, aligning workers’ skills with the current demands of the economy, reducing administrative burden, and making the wage indexation system more flexible will be key to harnessing productivity gains and bolstering competitiveness.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper on Belgium focuses on detailed assessment of observance of the International Organization of Securities Commissions (CPSS-IOSCO) principles for financial market infrastructures. While improvements have been made since the onboarding of the current Chief Information Security Officer, in particular to Euroclear’s cyber posture, there remain critical deficiencies in the management of key operational risk elements, which will require substantial efforts to address. Beyond relying on direct participant disclosure, Euroclear Bank (EB) should develop capacity for increasing the transparency with respect to the business of its direct participants’ clients. EB should also improve the breadth and rigor of its business continuity and default management testing by conducting simulation exercises based on well-defined scenarios. The report suggests that the National Bank of Belgium (NBB)—as the National Resolution Authority—should ensure that the resolution plan for EB is fully operationalized. Action to seize frozen assets at Euroclear because of international sanctions imposed following the Russian invasion of Ukraine could have unintended consequences for EB and the Euroclear Group more broadly.
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This paper presents Resilience and Sustainability (RST) contribution agreements finalized with four contributors between April 2023 and September 15, 2023. The concluded agreements provide for contributions in a total amount of about SDR 4.7 billion across the three RST accounts – the loan account, deposit account, and reserve account. The new agreements with four members add critical resources that support the continued smooth operations of the RST.
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This paper presents a regional report on Nordic-Baltic technical assistance project: financial flows analysis, Anti-Money Laundering and combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) Supervision, and Financial Stability. The purpose of the project is to conduct an analysis of cross-border ML threats and vulnerabilities in the Nordic-Baltic region—encompassing Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and Sweden (the Nordic-Baltic Constituency or NBC)—and issue a final report containing recommendations for mitigating the potential risks. The financial flows analysis presented in this report is based on the IMF staff’s analysis of cross-border payments data. Six out of the eight Nordic-Baltic countries have seen an increase in aggregate flows since 2013. Monitoring cross-border financial flows provides countries with a deeper understanding of their external ML threat environment and evolving cross-border related risks they are facing. Leveraging broader analysis of ML/TF cross-border risk, the Nordic-Baltic countries should develop their own understanding of higher-risk countries reflecting country-specific ML/TF threats.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper highlights quantitative tightening (QT) by the European Central Bank (ECB). It uses evidence from the literature on the impact of central bank bond purchases and sales on bond yields, and the monetary policy stance, to outline a roadmap for reducing the Euro system’s bond holdings. The current tightening cycle provides an opportunity to revisit the ECB’s balance sheet policy. With inflation running above target, the monetary accommodation provided by the ECB’s bond holding is no longer necessary. The current tightening cycle provides an opportunity to revisit the ECB’s balance sheet policy. With inflation running above target, the monetary accommodation provided by the ECB’s bond holding is no longer necessary. The paper concludes that the ECB’s short term policy rates should be the main choice for adapting the monetary policy stance to changing circumstances and QT should proceed in a gradual, predictable manner as outlined by the ECB.