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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
After reaching 5.1 percent in 2023, growth is expected to slow to 3.9 percent in 2024, while inflation would decline to 8.2 percent. The banking sector remains resilient amid continued rapid consumer credit growth. A moderate current account deficit is expected this year. The outlook is subject to elevated risks, including from an uncertain external environment. Decisive reforms are necessary to diversify the economy, make growth higher and more inclusive, and address challenges from climate change.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper presents the Technical Note on Regulation and Supervision of Crypto Assets for the Republic of Kazakhstan Financial Sector Assessment Program. There are limited short-term financial stability implications from crypto assets in Kazakhstan, but this can change quickly. The ultimate goal for authorities should be to move toward a comprehensive regulatory framework for crypto assets, although this might not be a regulatory priority. Regardless of a prohibition or regulation, authorities should improve their domestic collaboration and international cooperation in relation to crypto assets. Authorities should improve user education through joint communication to markets and consumers. In the short term, authorities should work to ensure that users are informed of the trade-offs from using international crypto exchanges that are not registered, are operating illegally. This approach should be wide reaching through online media outlets to reach users most likely to engage with crypto assets. Over the long term, users should be able to consider trade-offs and make informed decisions on their preferred approach.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper presents Detailed Assessment of Observance of the Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision for the Republic of Kazakhstan Financial Sector Assessment Program. Along with the financial stability mandate, the Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan for the Regulation and Development of the Financial Market (ARDFM) pursues a development objective, including by supporting the expansion of banks’ loans portfolio, which can conflict with the safety and soundness of banks and the banking system, and it is not subordinate to it. ARDFM began its activities during the coronavirus pandemic. Banks’ asset quality, while improving, remains a source of concern. However, supervisory discretion is constrained as the law enables the ARDFM to exert its motivated judgment. The ARDFM should perform a more intrusive oversight of related party transactions, including onsite reviews. In addition, the authorities should take more stringent corrective measures vis-à-vis gaps in banks’ related party framework and practices.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper presents Republic of Kazakhstan’s Financial System Stability Assessment report. In 2024, Kazakhstan’s economic growth is expected to slow to 3.1 percent, mostly due to delays in expanding the Tengiz oil field, while inflation, which is still well above the authorities’ target, would continue to decline. The authorities have continued their efforts to secure macroeconomic stability. The National Bank of Kazakhstan maintained tight monetary policy throughout 2023. The authorities remain committed to medium-term fiscal consolidation and have undertaken significant efforts to increase trade diversification and address governance and corruption vulnerabilities. According to the recently completed Financial Sector Assessment Program, the banking system appears well capitalized in aggregate. Kazakhstan is exposed to transition risk from domestic and global climate policies. Banking supervision has become more risk-based, but related party transactions remain challenging to monitor and consolidated supervision is still incomplete. Finally, there remain gaps in the financial safety nets and crisis management arrangements.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper presents Republic of Kazakhstan’s Technical Assistance (TA) report on risk-based supervision recovery plans and interest rate risk. The mission provided recommendations and training to the Agency on the assessment of banks’ recovery plans and interest rate risk in the banking book (IRRBB). The Agency continues to make progress on aligning its prudential regulatory and supervisory frameworks with international standards. The two missions in September 2020 and November 2020 focused on strengthening the Agency’s institutional set up, and on the implementation of certain elements of the Pillar 2 requirements of the Basel Framework. This mission recommended the Agency develop comprehensive regulatory requirements for banks’ recovery plans. The new framework should provide standards that comply with international standards and reflect proportional application to Kazakhstan banks’ systemic risk profile. A short-term follow-up TA can be considered to ensure consistency of the revised regulations with international standards. The mission included six training sessions for supervisors on IRRBB and recovery plans.
Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru
and
Klakow Akepanidtaworn
The COVID-19 crisis raises the risk of renewed financial sector pressures in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region in the period ahead. Bank distress and its economic and fiscal fallout have been recurring features of many CCA countries, as seen after the global financial crisis and the 2014–15 oil price shock. Strong policy responses have delayed the full impact of the COVID crisis so far, but financial sector risks will increase once public support is phased out. If these risks are not preemptively addressed, banks’ ability to lend during the recovery phase could be impaired and there may be a need for costly public interventions, as in the past.
Padamja Khandelwal
,
Ezequiel Cabezon
,
Mr. Sanan Mirzayev
, and
Rayah Al-Farah
Limited economic diversification has made the economies of the Caucasus and Central Asia particularly vulnerable to external shocks. The economies in the region are heavily reliant on oil and mining exports as well as remittances. In some countries, tourism and capital flows also play a prominent role in aggregate economic activity.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This virtual technical assistance (TA) mission supported the Agency in strengthening certain elements of its risk based supervisory framework. The mission focused on assisting the Agency with its development of internal supervisory methodologies for assessing a bank’s ICAAP, and for setting individual Pillar 2 supervisory capital requirements. The mission provided recommendations and targeted training. The priorities for the next TA missions were discussed with the Agency (strengthening banking supervision and cybersecurity, and diagnostic TA of insurance sector supervision will be considered). The mission benefited from simultaneous translation.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This virtual technical assistance (TA) mission assisted the Agency in strengthening liquidity elements of its risk-based supervisory framework. The mission focused on supporting the Agency with the development of internal supervisory methodology for the assessment of banks’ ILAAP and setting individual Pillar 2 supervisory liquidity requirements and provided guidance on stress testing and sensitivity analysis through survival horizon analysis. The mission consisted of a combination of presentations, discussions, and trainings, including case studies, and covered the BCBS standards on liquidity risk and other jurisdictions’ approaches for the assessment of ILAAP and the Pillar 2 liquidity supervisory review process. This mission should be seen in the context of previous three IMF TA missions which were held since September 2020.