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Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nicaragua: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Nicaragua
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The Nicaraguan economy is experiencing robust growth. Real GDP growth accelerated to around 4½ percent in 2023 and the first half of 2024, from about 3.8 percent in 2022, on the back of robust domestic demand, while inflation is moderating. Prudent macroeconomic policies and record-high remittances sustained this performance, a decrease in the estimated poverty ratio, and also led to twin surpluses, a steady decline in debt, and the accumulation of strong buffers. Gross international reserves reached US$5.7 billion, or 7.2 months of imports, by end-October 2024. The economy remains open and resilient, after confronting multiple large shocks, and on a backdrop of transfers of private property to the state, international sanctions, and reorientation of official financing. Going forward, domestic and international political developments may impact economic performance, by potentially increasing the cost of doing business and impacting other cross-border flows.
Keywords:
update safeguard assessment; transmission mechanism; Policy coordination; safeguards recommendation; tax audit procedure; exports threshold; authority of the BCN; headline inflation; Public sector; Financial sector stability; Global; Central America; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Czech Republic: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
macro News; macroeconomics news; ECB monetary policy surprise; EU TFP frontier; inflation expectation; Automobile industry; Total factor productivity; Productivity; Asset prices; Global; Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bolivia: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bolivia
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Economic activity has slowed reflecting falling natural gas production, lower public investment execution, financial volatility, and disruptions due to socio-political tensions. Bolivia’s inflation rate remains one of the lowest in the region, sustained by price controls and costly subsidies. The combination of sizable fiscal imbalances, declining natural gas exports, a loss of access to international markets, and the ongoing monetization of the deficit in the context of an exchange rate peg have eroded competitiveness, depleted reserves, and left Bolivia in a precarious position.
Keywords:
market exchange rate volatility; authorities' action; U.S. dollar; Bolivian authorities; government's measure; Public sector; International reserves; Inflation; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe: Request for an Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The people of São Tomé and Príncipe (STP), a small fragile island state, have faced extraordinary challenges. STP continues to struggle with high fuel import needs, limited export potential, and depleted international reserves, and faced a massive balance of payments (BOP) shock in early 2023, which opened a large external financing gap. Inflation was stubbornly high in 2023 and the economy barely grew, dragged down by foreign exchange and energy shortages, as well as a large fiscal adjustment. Growth is projected to remain sluggish in 2024, while inflation has started to decline.
Keywords:
tariff structure; staff appraisal; fuel price adjustment mechanism; electricity tariff; ECF arrangement; Arrears; Debt sustainability; Imports; Global; West Africa; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of San Marino: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper compares Sammarinese banks with nearby Italian banks with similar business models, highlighting gaps in asset quality, capital adequacy, and cost efficiency. Individual banks can boost profits by reducing the high operating costs and increasing the share of income-generating assets. If within bank consolidation is insufficient to restore competitiveness, system-wide consolidation can be considered to achieve economies of scale. It is key to improve the competitiveness of the banking sector well-ahead of the 15-year time frame granted by the EU association agreement. The analysis shows most San Marino banks need to catch up in terms of asset quality, capital adequacy and cost efficiency. A system-level consolidation can be considered. The banking sector remains oversized. The number of bank branches needs to be reduced by more than two thirds to reach the EU level. The share of income-generating assets should also be increased.
Keywords:
Nowcasting GDP; NOWCASTING tool; businesses' expectation; association agreement; DFM approach to Nowcasting; A. comparing San Marino bank; San Marino bank; Small and medium enterprises; Income; Manufacturing; Commercial banks; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of South Sudan: Third Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program with Board Involvement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of South Sudan
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper focuses on South Sudan’s Third Review under the Staff-Monitored Program with Board Involvement. Severe spillovers from the conflict in Sudan, including refugee inflows and damages to an oil pipeline, have exacerbated South Sudan’s difficult humanitarian and macroeconomic situation, resulting in an economic slowdown, sharp exchange rate depreciation, high inflation, and higher spending needs against the backdrop of large fiscal revenue losses. Discussions with the South Sudanese authorities during the Third Review of the Staff-Monitored Program with Board Involvement (PMB) focused on re-calibrating macroeconomic policy to address the impact of the external shocks. The authorities remain committed to implementing strong policies and reform measures to restore macroeconomic stability. IMF Management completed the Third review of the PMB with South Sudan. The implementation of commitments taken by the authorities under the Letter of Intent will continue to support macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability. The authorities remain committed to fiscal and monetary prudence and to implementing their medium-term reform agenda.
Keywords:
authorities' priority; government operation; VAT regime; authorities view; reform agenda; Oil production; Quasi-fiscal operations; Oil, gas and mining taxes; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Quarterly Projection Model for the Bank of Ghana: Extensions and Applications
Philip Abradu-Otoo
,
Joseph K. Acquah
,
James Attuquaye
,
Simon Harvey
,
Francis Loloh
,
Shalva Mkhatrishvili
,
Valeriu Nalban
,
Daniel Ngoh
,
Victor Osei
, and
Michael Quansah
The paper documents the latest extensions of the Bank of Ghana’s Quarterly Projection Model (QPM), used regularly to produce policy analysis and forecasts in support of the Bank’s policy processes. The decomposition of GDP allows to separate the agriculture and oil sectors, driven by exogenous and international developments, from non-agriculture non-oil activities, which are more relevant from the central bank’s perspective of assessing the business cycle position. Inter-sectoral price spillovers and their role in the formation of inflation expectations are explicitly accounted, with important policy implications. Specific model applications – including impulse response functions and simulations of shocks that affect agricultural production, e.g., those caused by climate disruptions; and counterfactual simulations to evaluate recent policy choices – highlight the usefulness of the extended QPM in providing a more detailed account of the economic developments, enhance forecast coverage, and broaden its underlying narrative, thus strengthening the BOG’s forward-looking policy framework.
Keywords:
Ghana; Forecasting and Policy Analysis; Quarterly Projection Model; Monetary Policy; Transmission Mechanism; A. impulse response; impulse response function; reaction function; policy analysis; Bank of Ghana's Quarterly Projection Model; price spillover; Inflation; Output gap; Inflation targeting; Real interest rates; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Costa Rica: Sixth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Third Review Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility Arrangement, and Monetary Policy Consultation Clause
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Costa Rica’s Sixth Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Third Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility Arrangement, and Monetary Policy Consultation Clause. The authorities continue to make important progress on Costa Rica’s economic reform agenda. Going forward, the authorities should focus on institutionalizing the impressive progress over the past three years and sustaining reform momentum. The supervisory authorities should continue to enhance their toolkits to strengthen financial sector resilience. A recently submitted bill to amend the bank resolution and deposit insurance law would help strengthen the crisis management framework and the financial safety net and should be approved quickly. Keeping the momentum of structural reforms is critical to achieving greener and more inclusive growth. The new social assistance single window is increasing the quality of social spending. It is critical for the public employment bill to be fully implemented by all affected institutions.
Keywords:
RSF arrangement; IMF Resilience and Sustainability Facility arrangement; RSF reform measure; Costa Rican authority; headline inflation; economic reform program; Credit; International reserves; Public sector; Global; Central America
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Saint Lucia: Technical Assistance Report-Report on External Sector Statistics Mission
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A technical assistance (TA) mission on external sector statistics (ESS) was conducted to the Central Statistics Office (CSO) of Saint Lucia as part of the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) work program on ESS. The mission focused on addressing data compilation issues on trade in goods—especially on the import and re-export of fuel—and travel credits and assessed the revised 2022 balance of payments that was disseminated in December 2023.
Keywords:
Saint Lucia; balance of payments statistics; external sector statistics.; balance of payments estimate; St. Lucia imports; exit surveys methodology; validation procedure; balance of payments survey; CED data; Civil society organizations; External sector statistics; Imports; Customs unions; Exports; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Regulation and Supervision of Crypto Assets
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper presents the Technical Note on Regulation and Supervision of Crypto Assets for the Republic of Kazakhstan Financial Sector Assessment Program. There are limited short-term financial stability implications from crypto assets in Kazakhstan, but this can change quickly. The ultimate goal for authorities should be to move toward a comprehensive regulatory framework for crypto assets, although this might not be a regulatory priority. Regardless of a prohibition or regulation, authorities should improve their domestic collaboration and international cooperation in relation to crypto assets. Authorities should improve user education through joint communication to markets and consumers. In the short term, authorities should work to ensure that users are informed of the trade-offs from using international crypto exchanges that are not registered, are operating illegally. This approach should be wide reaching through online media outlets to reach users most likely to engage with crypto assets. Over the long term, users should be able to consider trade-offs and make informed decisions on their preferred approach.
Keywords:
IMF-World Bank Financial Sector Assessment Program; crypto taxonomy; settlement centre; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; FSAP assessment's finding; Blockchain and DLT; Fintech; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Mining sector; Global